September confirmed as 14.3c which is 0.6c warmer than 2018

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Originally Posted by: The Professional

An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd
14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd
14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd
Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd
13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd
13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th
Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.

Originally Posted by: The Professional

Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.

Wait, that means... I was spot on, to within 100th of a degree Celsius.

I think that's three, maybe four small errors in a row for me. All the luck I was owed from the 1st half of the year really has come in one big surge .

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

 

 

Damn those clear, cold nights 

I feel cheated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tell me about it!

We got the anticyclonic spell but the high was rarely in the right position to give us the S or SE fetch that would have prevented the cold nights. If it had been, I would have been laughing right now!

Still, the CET competition is full of if and buts, and the what might have beens.....

I think I might have retained my position- I have just been pipped by Frank H I reckon, but leapfrogged GW at the same time. Happy with a .19 error. Good show Col!

Originally Posted by: Caz

Well done SC!  I think you must have changed your prediction method!  

Haha thanks Caz - I've basically eased up on the amount of hardcore science and started using a bit more 'reckoning' .

Here are the charts for September. Slightly above average month. Looking at the maximums and minimums, the minimum was bang on the 1981-2010 mean whereas the maximum was 0.5C above average.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Table 1

Table 2

Edited by user 06 October 2019 10:07:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Thanks as ever GW and congratulations to Stormchaser!

I was quite fortunate last month as the first half of the month was cooler than I expected, but then in a couple of previous months a couple of short very hot spells blew my predictions so I think these things tend to balance out overall.

This is probably the closest finish we've had. Anybody in the top 7 is still in with a great chance of winning and even people outside this set cannot be ruled out yet. I expect at least one of the last 3 months will deviate from the average more than others have recently so a brave prediction could thrust somebody to the top of the table. Could this be that month?