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September UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,656  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Sadly, I think that’s too big an ask. We only have four days to go and at this stage of the month it takes a big change in temperature to make much difference to the running mean.  If only we hadn’t had clear night skies last week, bringing the low minima.  In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment. I love your optimism!  Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by. Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading. |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,423 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C. The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C. Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C. Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW! The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference. As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time! This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month.  |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 1,294 Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: Caz  I love your optimism!  Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by. Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading. I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET? |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 1,294 Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW! The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference. As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time! This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month.  I haven't got any nails left! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,040  Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: Col  I think youve been had, Col. |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Col  I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET? It’s because final readings are taken at 9am GMT, although I think that will actually be on 1st October. But it’s still an extra minimum to be taken into account. Yes, the max on 30th September still counts but the min at 9am on 1st September would belong to August. I’m pretty sure I’ve got this right but GW will be able to confirm or refute this.  Edited by user 26 September 2019 19:56:19(UTC)
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Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle  I think youve been had, Col. No, honestly. For once, I was being serious and I’m sure this has been explained before. To me it makes sense (just) if the daily means are calculated from 9am to 9am.  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,264 
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Originally Posted by: Caz  No, honestly. For once, I was being serious and I’m sure this has been explained before. To me it makes sense (just) if the daily means are calculated from 9am to 9am.  You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant ! I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2 In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.6c Anomaly 0.8c. Provisional to 26th. Treble checked.  Metcheck 14.28c Anomaly 0.56c Netweather 14.83c Anomaly 1.14c Peasedown St John 14.68c. Anomaly -0.4c |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: lanky  You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant ! I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2 In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1  That’s how I understand it to be! It’s GMT too, so at the moment the readings are taken at 10:00 as we’re on BST. |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 14.6c Anomaly 0.8c. Provisional to 26th. Treble checked.  Metcheck 14.28c Anomaly 0.56c Netweather 14.83c Anomaly 1.14c Peasedown St John 14.68c. Anomaly -0.4c  Well done Art!  That’ll please Saint and Col! Me too, but my 15c guess is well out of reach now! |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.6c. Anomaly 0.8c. Provisional to 27th. Metcheck 14.22c. Anomaly 0.50c Netweather 14.8c Anomaly 1.11c Peasedwn St John 14.67c. Anomaly -0.05c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,423 Location: Central Southern England
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Can we keep the provisional up to 14.5 month's end? Downjustment then say .3 would give 14.2. Am still happy with that. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,040  Location: Dover
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So a finish between 14.0 and 14.4 looking likely then, depending upon the strength of the downgrade. I will plump for 14.25. 😀 |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.6c. Anomaly 0.9c. Provisional to 28th. Metcheck 14.25c Anomaly 0.25c Netweather 14.79c Anomaly 1.1c Peasedown St John 14.5c Anomaly -0.22c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.6c. Anomaly 0.9c. Provisional to 29th. Metcheck 14.21c Anomaly 0.49c Netweather 14.8c Anomaly 1.11c Peasedown St John 14.7c Anomaly -0.02c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC) Posts: 174   Location: Kings Worthy
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 14.6c. Anomaly 0.9c. Provisional to 29th. Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever! If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,423 Location: Central Southern England
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Looks good to me, for this month at least. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: The Professional  Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever! If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however. I think 14.3c might have it! That keeps Col in the lead but with less wiggle room.  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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