Looking at the eventual extratropical transition.

Fully Tropical at 192h

Gained extratropical characturistics by 240h. Cold and warm fronts appearing although core of the cyclone is maintained.

Rapid extratropical transition underway by 252h

Extratropical by 276h.

 

Indeed, there have also been plenty of 'ophelia' candidates I've talked about in here that have turned out to be busts. At this stage its interesting but nothing more than that.

 

I certainly hope that that continues to be the case and that this one's another "bust". When Ophelia hit here, it felt quite surreal to be avidly watch the NHC website with Ireland(and the UK to a lesser extent) showing up on the warnings cone etc. I can do without a repeat of that. The charts above suggest that we're not in any big danger with HP keeping any storm track well to the West.

Since this morning, I see that this storm has today become TS Lorenzo.

ECM has it still as a hurricane at 240h

Sorry that Karen didn't come up to scratch and has now declined further to a mere depression (suggestion of a hurricane yesterday was down to my sloppy phrasing under time pressure, I do look at the nhc site).

Lorenzo now off Africa forecast to make up for any disappointment and to become a major hurricane in mid-Atlantic, and, as Q says, both ECM & GFS show it persisting close to UK in about 9-10 days.

Latest 0Z GFS has Lorenzo ploughing straight into the Azores.

The 0Z has the TC maintaining some tropical characturistics when the storm makes landfall over the UK

This would only likely be just declared extratropical at this point.

If it can stay to the East of the cold front then the shear instead of ripping the storm apart could ventilate it.  That's part of the reason Ophelia lasted so long.

Lorenzo vs cold front

GEM has lorenzo still as a hurricane by 240h

GEM has lorenzo still as a hurricane by 240h

 

Will probably push away north, but with that deep 500mb trough moving out of Canada, this could turn it into an explosive NE bound inclusion if it attacks this feature in time. 

All TS at time of typing. Jerry declining in mid-Atlantic, Karen forecast to do a curious loop with some models even suggesting development and movement westward towards the US, Lorenzo heading up towards the Azores, strengthening to hurricane and then you have a choice of a hit on the UK (GFS) or steaming on northwards (ECM)

Lorenzo showing nicely on the sat here 

https://en.sat24.com/en/ca/world

Much as yesterday. Jerry has disappeared from NHC charts but may just last enough to give Bermuda gales as it passes. All models think Karen will stall; specialised hurricane models such as SHIPS show it declining but some global models want to intensify it and send it in the direction of Cuba; Lorenzo becoming a powerful hurricane in mid-Atlantic with a chance of becoming the easternmost cat 4 on record.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/After-Puerto-Rico-and-Virgin-Islands-What-Next-Karen?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Given its size (350 miles dia) steady movement and direction, it will be interesting to see if Lorenzo can generate swells big enough to outrun the storm and powerful enough to reach the south coast. Just guessing, but such swells have turned up before without the storm responsible affecting the UK directly

https://www.surgewatch.org/events/1979-02-13/

The bigger and stronger Lorenzo can get the more shielded it will be to wind shear so it will get further before transitioning.

The bigger and stronger Lorenzo can get the more shielded it will be to wind shear so it will get further before transitioning.

That's looking pretty horrific for the Azores. Still looking like it will stay too far West to affect us, though. 

Lorenzo now cat 4; just missed the record for furthest east cat $ formation which belongs to Julia in 2010. It's forecast to weaken before reaching the Azores, and the eye to pass just north of the islands, but close enough to do a lot of damage. ECM has its central pressure around 945-950mb 200 miles west of Ireland on Thursday.

Lorenzo now cat 4; just missed the record for furthest east cat $ formation which belongs to Julia in 2010. It's forecast to weaken before reaching the Azores, and the eye to pass just north of the islands, but close enough to do a lot of damage. ECM has its central pressure around 945-950mb 200 miles west of Ireland on Thursday.

200 miles is a little too close for comfort for my liking. At what point/when is Lorenzo forecast to go ex-tropical?

How many people live on the Azores? They must be used to windy weather though

How many people live on the Azores? They must be used to windy weather though

They do occasionally see TCs, its rare but not unheard of. I'd be suprised though if this isn't the strongest TC on record for them.

NOAAs latest report describes an extratropical transition underway by the time the storm gets to 45.2N but not complete. So we should expect the transition to complete at a similarly exceptional latitude to ophelia

For this time next week, GFS and UKMO has the extratropical remnants of Lorenzo heading northwards, skimming harmlessly past the west of the UK in doing so before being absorbed into an Atlantic low, but ECM and GEM are showing it heading northwards almost directly towards the UK but as a well decayed remnant. 

So it looks like needing a couple more days for things to be resolved, will GFS stick to their guns or ECM end up being the correct outcome? Either or, you can bet your bottom dollar that the newspaper media will w*nk themselves silly over it.