We don't normally get our first proper frosts until around Bonfire night. Maybe the odd ground frost before then but they're about as rare as hen's teeth these days.

Generally the same as yesterday but with the threat from a still-fairly-well organised hurricane is closer around 4th Oct on GFS 0z and also hinted at on ECM the day before

Generally the same as yesterday but with the threat from a still-fairly-well organised hurricane is closer around 4th Oct on GFS 0z and also hinted at on ECM the day before

I have a sneaky suspicion Lorenzo might be a name that’s increasingly discussed by the weekend. 

GFS 0z definitely worse than yesterday, a double whammy with the northerlies next Mon/Tue followed by Lorenzo, still a potent storm, from the south on the following Thu/Fri, and not much in between. 

Optimists should look at ECM which keeps Lorenzo moving north in mid-Atlantic with some really warm air over the UK

People who are wedded to the idea that UK weather is simply chaotic should look at the GEFS ensembles

GFS continues its descent into pessimism with a string of depression around or over the UK, with a brief window of dryness and warmth around next Wed as Lorenzo whistles past the west of Ireland (i.e. standing a bit further off than predicted yesterday).ECM similar but maintains the warm spell a bit longer.

However despite synoptics showing warm air(582 dam in the south) the GEFS ens is having none of it though it does agree on the dry window.

GFS continues its descent into pessimism with a string of depression around or over the UK, with a brief window of dryness and warmth around next Wed as Lorenzo whistles past the west of Ireland (i.e. standing a bit further off than predicted yesterday).ECM similar but maintains the warm spell a bit longer.

However despite synoptics showing warm air(582 dam in the south) the GEFS ens is having none of it though it does agree on the dry window.

An unrelenting conveyor belt of cr*pness sums things up atm. 

LPs crossing Britain at intervals during the coming 5 or 6 days before hurricane Lorenzo arrives sometime around next Thursday to stir things up (maybe just tropical storm by then) ECM & GFS both show it running northward with a position 200-300 miles west of Ireland and central pressure 950-960 mb, bringing tropical air all the way north across Britain, and a brief dry spell.

After that ECM and GFS differ wildly - watch this space as they could well both be wrong! ECM is the more benign, with the interaction of Lorenzo with the jet stream generating small depressions which run across the N of Scotland and a broad ridge of HP across S England. GFS has deeper LP and further south. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 (which I think is GFS-based) has lots of rain for the S and W that week, and incidentally the parallel temp site shows very cold early weather over Norway. [EDIT - that was GFS 0z. The 6z is more inclined to agree with ECM]

GEFS ens show the lull with dry weather in the UK around Thu Oct 3rd, though cooler than expected fro tropical air. After that, disturbed  and unpredictable certainly but not apocalyptic

Interesting ECM 00z. Not show what the technical term for a rapid pressure rise like this is? Pressure boom? 

Standard Atlantic fare with a BIG EXCEPTION ... while some runs have Lorenzo as previously heading on up to Iceland and putting energy into the N Atlantic jet streams, about half the GEFS runs (including control) show it splitting with an extremely damaging storm running across Ireland or into the Bristol Channel on the night of Thu/Fri, with pressures as low as 965 mb. Weather-for-the-week-ahead showed this scenario as a possibility, too. For maximum direness see e.g.

 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/16_144_500mb.png?cb=2

and for 'what are we worrying about?'

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/12_144_500mb.png?cb=2

Temps - a dip at the beginning of next week as the northerlies on the tail of the current depression kick in and then back to  normal. Double digit snow row figures for Inverness, and the northerly itself augmenting high tides down the east coast - see syzygy thread

Nice knowing you folks. 

Really hard one to pin down though. Models are all over the place regarding track. 

Lorenzo’s path is definitely worth watching. If he does cross our shores will he get a name change?

I wouldn't think so. 'Ophelia' kept its birth name when it hit back in October 2017. 

 

I wouldn't think so. 'Ophelia' kept its birth name when it hit back in October 2017. 

Thanks, I had forgotten about that. 

 

Thanks, I had forgotten about that. 

Well in fairness, it wasn't that memorable anyway. 

Lorenzo’s path is definitely worth watching. If he does cross our shores will he get a name change?

Don’t get me started. I almost want Lorenzo to impact the U.K. just to see the chaos it will cause - not to our infrastructure, but to the ridiculous naming conventions (plural by design) 

There's really only one story this week - will Lorenzo arrive on time, on track, and with what intensity? Public forecasters are keeping their powder dry, remembering the infamous Michael Fish forecast of 1987 and not wanting to see themselves repeated in news bulletins for the next 30 years

But someone has picked up an ECM forecast for 100+ mph gusts in W. Ireland on Thursday https://twitter.com/MAX_crazystorm though the ECM 0z synoptic chart doesn't look that intense - and in contrast to yesterday GFS 0z control keeps Lorenzo well out to sea though even more intense (but then developing into a deep depression and coming back to the UK for Saturday) Only two of the GEFS runs have Lorenzo seriously impacting Britain (OK, not a good time to be camping on Rockall). Not yet in the time range for FAX which only goes up to midday Thursday at which point it has Lorenzo off Biscay at ca 970mb. NHC by contrast has SW Ireland directly in its sights https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023639.shtml?cone#contents

Basically the models haven't been taught to cope with this situation.

Meanwhile, Norway is having early snowfalls, http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4  -and synoptics show some of that cold air working its way across the North Sea in a week or so.  That's in addition to the current northerlies generating flood warnings on the Yorkshire coast. And there are flood warnings out for the SW, too https://www.floodalerts.com/

A good week for weather watching!

Lorenzo’s path is definitely worth watching. If he does cross our shores will he get a name change?

Previously named storms are not renamed by the met office

Barely out of September, & the snow row in Inverness is impressive. 22, no less!

Barely out of September, & the snow row in Inverness is impressive. 22, no less!

Ticking up nicely in recent days:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?type=daily&location=Inverness#Inverness