Finally got to look at some numbers too, out of interest.
This current week's mean minimum will likely be somewhere in the mid-single digits, despite the one for Sunday being on the mild side.
The mean maximum could be in the high teens or low 20s. As GW's informative update shows us, this has resulted in CET means near or a tad below average overall - except perhaps for today, which we don't know the final obs for yet. Tomorrow might do enough to mean the CET was very near average for the week as a whole.
Looking at next week and using GFS raw numbers with a slight upward bias adjustment of +0.5*C applied, the mean CET max may only be in the low or mid-17s, a little below par for the time of year. By contrast, however, the mean min looks to be in the mid-high 11s - and that's with the bias adjustment being less than it justifiably could be (I'm a cautious fellow!). Notably mild for late September.
An above-average overall CET mean for the week results. An estimate using the 12z GFS alone gives me 14.5*C to 29th, before a cooler 30th drops it to 14.4*C. Note, though, that my estimates lack the level of precision that GW's do. Even so - I see a finish (after adjustments) just about in the 14s as a possibility. Not something I'd actually bet on though .
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email
[email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On