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September UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,966  Location: West Hants
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Finally got to look at some numbers too, out of interest. This current week's mean minimum will likely be somewhere in the mid-single digits, despite the one for Sunday being on the mild side. The mean maximum could be in the high teens or low 20s. As GW's informative update shows us, this has resulted in CET means near or a tad below average overall - except perhaps for today, which we don't know the final obs for yet. Tomorrow might do enough to mean the CET was very near average for the week as a whole. Looking at next week and using GFS raw numbers with a slight upward bias adjustment of +0.5*C applied, the mean CET max may only be in the low or mid-17s, a little below par for the time of year. By contrast, however, the mean min looks to be in the mid-high 11s - and that's with the bias adjustment being less than it justifiably could be (I'm a cautious fellow!). Notably mild for late September. An above-average overall CET mean for the week results. An estimate using the 12z GFS alone gives me 14.5*C to 29th, before a cooler 30th drops it to 14.4*C. Note, though, that my estimates lack the level of precision that GW's do. Even so - I see a finish (after adjustments) just about in the 14s as a possibility. Not something I'd actually bet on though . |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always. They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers! Me! 
15c? Doh! Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights! I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,966  Location: West Hants
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always. They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers! Me! 
15c? Doh! Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights! I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!  You're most welcome Caz  I think you're being a little hard on yourself here by the way - with a brisk flow from anywhere between southwesterly (tropical maritime air) and southeasterly (drier air but still capable in a strong flow), high pressure has been known to bring warm days without cold nights even very late in the month. Indeed, there was a time when the models were consistently predicting that sort of setup to dominate the week just gone and even into next week. That's when thoughts of final CETs somewhere in the 15s were circulating. It took a sudden large uptick in tropical cyclone activity, causing the jet stream to undertake 'narrower' loops (reaching more north and south, but less west and east), to force the ridge to drift a little west of the UK and then slowly back over, leading to an import of fresh air which then stagnated overhead and created near-optimal conditions for the lowest CET minimums achievable at this time of year (except perhaps with a rare Arctic northerly). So, with a little luck, I think you could easily have been right on the money this month . |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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You’re too kind SC! But thank you for your faith and your analysis. You’re right! The elements are finely balanced in such a small maritime landmass, which is what makes the British weather so fickle and so interesting!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.2c. Anomaly 0.3c. Provisional to 21st. Metcheck 14.03c Anomaly 0.30c Netweather 14.54c Anomaly 0.85c Peasedown St John 14.62c Anomaly -0.1c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.3c. Anomaly 0.4c. Provisional to 22nd Metcheck 14.9c Anomaly 0.37c Netweather 14.64c Anomaly 0.95c Peasedown St John 14.52c Anomaly -0.20c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.4c. Anomaly 0.5c. Provisional to 23rd. Metcheck 14.16c Anomaly 0.44c Netweather 14.68c Anomaly 0.99c Peasedown St John 14.69c Anomaly -0.03c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,423 Location: Central Southern England
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D'you know what Col? It'll be hard to knock you off your spot, even now; and even then, you'll grab it again in October, I bet. No pressure..  |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 1,294 Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  D'you know what Col? It'll be hard to knock you off your spot, even now; and even then, you'll grab it again in October, I bet. No pressure..  By the calculations worked out by The Professional I will be down to joint leader at 14.10C. If it was just the raw figure that counted I would be fine, loving the nice mild nights at the moment and some more to come but it will be the downgrade that will clobber me this month. I expect to lose my lead, although it will be close. Pressure, what pressure :) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,040  Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: Col  By the calculations worked out by The Professional I will be down to joint leader at 14.10C. If it was just the raw figure that counted I would be fine, loving the nice mild nights at the moment and some more to come but it will be the downgrade that will clobber me this month. I expect to lose my lead, although it will be close. Pressure, what pressure :) Ive a suspicion that the downgrade will be less severe this month if the mild nights continue. So a finish around 14.2 is not out of the question, which would leave you ahead by a whisker. |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle  Ive a suspicion that the downgrade will be less severe this month if the mild nights continue. So a finish around 14.2 is not out of the question, which would leave you ahead by a whisker.  I’d say so too! It’s looking OK for Col. Another mild night here last night and forecasts to stay in double figures, although falling slightly to the end of the month. So daily means here will come in above the current CET, increasing the total slightly. If the CET areas mirror this, Col’s lead is safe!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.4c. Anomaly 0.6c. Provisional to 24th. Metcheck 14.20c Anomaly 0.48c Netweather 14.74c Anomaly 1.05c PSJ 14.69c Anomaly -0.03c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,278  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.7c. Anomaly 0.7c. Provisional to 25th. Metcheck 14.26c Anomaly 0.54c Netweather 14.78c Anomaly 1.09c Peasedown St John 14.65c. Anomaly -0.07c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,654  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 14.7c. Anomaly 0.7c. Provisional to 25th. Metcheck 14.26c Anomaly 0.54c Netweather 14.78c Anomaly 1.09c Peasedown St John 14.65c. Anomaly -0.07c. Come on! Keep going upwards!! 
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"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,264 
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  Come on! Keep going upwards!! 
Just to be a pain - I think that should have said 14.5 not 14.7 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 1,294 Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: lanky  Just to be a pain - I think that should have said 14.5 not 14.7 I did think that was a very big rise over just one day so late in the month. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC) Posts: 174   Location: Kings Worthy
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 14.7c. Anomaly 0.7c. Provisional to 25th. Metcheck 14.26c Anomaly 0.54c Netweather 14.78c Anomaly 1.09c Peasedown St John 14.65c. Anomaly -0.07c. Artie’s bloomer!  I thought it was too late in the month for it to rise that much! |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,654  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Artie’s bloomer!  I thought it was too late in the month for it to rise that much! Hopefully it'll reach that (and more!) by the end of the month. It needs to go as high as possible, before the inevitable downjustment. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,307  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  Hopefully it'll reach that (and more!) by the end of the month. It needs to go as high as possible, before the inevitable downjustment. Sadly, I think that’s too big an ask. We only have four days to go and at this stage of the month it takes a big change in temperature to make much difference to the running mean.  If only we hadn’t had clear night skies last week, bringing the low minima.  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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