Finally got to look at some numbers too, out of interest.

This current week's mean minimum will likely be somewhere in the mid-single digits, despite the one for Sunday being on the mild side.

The mean maximum could be in the high teens or low 20s. As GW's informative update shows us, this has resulted in CET means near or a tad below average overall - except perhaps for today, which we don't know the final obs for yet. Tomorrow might do enough to mean the CET was very near average for the week as a whole.

Looking at next week and using GFS raw numbers with a slight upward bias adjustment of +0.5*C applied, the mean CET max may only be in the low or mid-17s, a little below par for the time of year. By contrast, however, the mean min looks to be in the mid-high 11s - and that's with the bias adjustment being less than it justifiably could be (I'm a cautious fellow!). Notably mild for late September.

An above-average overall CET mean for the week results. An estimate using the 12z GFS alone gives me 14.5*C to 29th, before a cooler 30th drops it to 14.4*C. Note, though, that my estimates lack the level of precision that GW's do. Even so - I see a finish (after adjustments) just about in the 14s as a possibility. Not something I'd actually bet on though .

  Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always.  They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers!  Me!  

15c?  Doh!  Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights!  I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!   

  Thanks GW and SC for your informative posts as always.  They are much appreciated and needed to reign in the dreamers!  Me!  

15c?  Doh!  Someone please remind me next year that clear skies mean cold nights!  I did put my guess in very early due to holidays, but I’d have stuck to my original thoughts anyway and by the end of the first week, I thought my guess was looking good!   

You're most welcome Caz 

I think you're being a little hard on yourself here by the way - with a brisk flow from anywhere between southwesterly (tropical maritime air) and southeasterly (drier air but still capable in a strong flow), high pressure has been known to bring warm days without cold nights even very late in the month.

Indeed, there was a time when the models were consistently predicting that sort of setup to dominate the week just gone and even into next week. That's when thoughts of final CETs somewhere in the 15s were circulating.

It took a sudden large uptick in tropical cyclone activity, causing the jet stream to undertake 'narrower' loops (reaching more north and south, but less west and east), to force the ridge to drift a little west of the UK and then slowly back over, leading to an import of fresh air which then stagnated overhead and created near-optimal conditions for the lowest CET minimums achievable at this time of year (except perhaps with a rare Arctic northerly).

So, with a little luck, I think you could easily have been right on the money this month .

You’re too kind SC!    But thank you for your faith and your analysis.

You’re right!  The elements are finely balanced in such a small maritime landmass, which is what makes the British weather so fickle and so interesting!  

Met Office Hadley          14.2c.      Anomaly       0.3c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       14.03c     Anomaly       0.30c

Netweather                    14.54c     Anomaly       0.85c

Peasedown St John        14.62c     Anomaly       -0.1c.  

Met Office Hadley          14.3c.      Anomaly      0.4c. Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                       14.9c       Anomaly       0.37c

Netweather                    14.64c     Anomaly       0.95c

Peasedown St John        14.52c      Anomaly       -0.20c.  

Met Office Hadley           14.4c.      Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                        14.16c     Anomaly      0.44c

Netweather                     14.68c     Anomaly      0.99c

Peasedown St John        14.69c      Anomaly     -0.03c.            

D'you know what Col? It'll be hard to knock you off your spot, even now; and even then, you'll grab it again in October, I bet.

No pressure..

D'you know what Col? It'll be hard to knock you off your spot, even now; and even then, you'll grab it again in October, I bet.

 

 

 

 

 

No pressure..

By the calculations worked out by The Professional I will be down to joint leader at 14.10C. If it was just the raw figure that counted I would be fine, loving the nice mild nights at the moment and some more to come but it will be the downgrade that will clobber me this month.

I expect to lose my lead, although it will be close.

Pressure, what pressure :)

 

By the calculations worked out by The Professional I will be down to joint leader at 14.10C. If it was just the raw figure that counted I would be fine, loving the nice mild nights at the moment and some more to come but it will be the downgrade that will clobber me this month.

I expect to lose my lead, although it will be close.

Pressure, what pressure :)

Ive a suspicion that the downgrade will be less severe this month if the mild nights continue.  So a finish around 14.2 is not out of the question, which would leave you ahead by a whisker.

Ive a suspicion that the downgrade will be less severe this month if the mild nights continue.  So a finish around 14.2 is not out of the question, which would leave you ahead by a whisker.

Another mild night here last night and forecasts to stay in double figures, although falling slightly to the end of the month.  So daily means here will come in above the current CET, increasing the total slightly. If the CET areas mirror this, Col’s lead is safe! 

Met Office Hadley           14.4c.       Anomaly      0.6c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                        14.20c      Anomaly      0.48c

Netweather                     14.74c      Anomaly      1.05c

PSJ                                14.69c      Anomaly       -0.03c.         

Met Office Hadley          14.7c.        Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                       14.26c       Anomaly       0.54c

Netweather                    14.78c       Anomaly       1.09c

Peasedown St John        14.65c.      Anomaly       -0.07c. 

Met Office Hadley          14.7c.        Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                       14.26c       Anomaly       0.54c

Netweather                    14.78c       Anomaly       1.09c

Peasedown St John        14.65c.      Anomaly       -0.07c. 

Come on! Keep going upwards!!

 

 

Come on! Keep going upwards!!

 

Just to be a pain -

I think that should have said 14.5 not 14.7

 

Just to be a pain -

I think that should have said 14.5 not 14.7

 

I did think that was a very big rise over just one day so late in the month.

Met Office Hadley          14.7c.        Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                       14.26c       Anomaly       0.54c

Netweather                    14.78c       Anomaly       1.09c

Peasedown St John        14.65c.      Anomaly       -0.07c. 

I thought it was too late in the month for it to rise that much!  

Artie’s bloomer!  

I thought it was too late in the month for it to rise that much!  

Hopefully it'll reach that (and more!) by the end of the month.

It needs to go as high as possible, before the inevitable downjustment.

 

Hopefully it'll reach that (and more!) by the end of the month.

It needs to go as high as possible, before the inevitable downjustment.

If only we hadn’t had clear night skies last week, bringing the low minima.