Met Office Hadley        14.3c        Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                     14.04c      Anomaly      0.32c

Netweather                  14.63c      Anomaly      0.9o4c

Peasedown St john        14.8c       Anomaly      0.6c.  

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The recent cold nights and coolish days have had a marked effect, with mean this morning on 11.6C here (-0.5C)

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14.2°C to 17th- that's lower than I was hoping for at this stage, with the 2-day warm spell gone.

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14.2°C to 17th- that's lower than I was hoping for at this stage, with the 2-day warm spell gone.

Me too!  Daytime temps just haven’t been enough to make up the  lows at night.  With minima around 5c we’d need to get into mid 20’s during the day, a really big ask!  What we need is cloud at night. 

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An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd
14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd
14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd
Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd
13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd
13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th
Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd
14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd
14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd
Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd
13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd
13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th
Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

Cheers for working that lot out!

I had looked at this and realised that something around 14.6 would enable me to preserve my lead. That is right up at the top end of my expectations now though. I really need the upcoming few warm days to make a big difference, if it doesn't then I expect a big chunk will be taken out of my lead come month end.

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 Cheers for working that lot out!

I had looked at this and realised that something around 14.6 would enable me to preserve my lead. That is right up at the top end of my expectations now though. I really need the upcoming few warm days to make a big difference, if it doesn't then I expect a big chunk will be taken out of my lead come month end.

Your high September prediction really has offered a lifeline to the chasing pack. HP centred over the UK allowing for cold surface nights rather than humid SSW'lies with the high to our east appear to have scuppered a really warm month. Any peaks in temperature in an attempt to raise the average really are struggling against the background declining seasonal tide now.

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Met Office Hadley        14.1c        Anomaly        -0.0c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     13.85c      Anomaly        0.12c

Netweather                  14.41c       Anomaly       0.72c

PSJ                              14.6c        Anomaly       -0.16c.   

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 As we enter the final quarter of the year, predicting close to the actual always gets more tricky, just as it was in the first quarter of the year.  Cumulative errors tend to be a lot lower in the 6 months April-September, than the 6 months either side.  For me, its now about whether my 5.99 all time low  cumulative error in 2016 will be beaten.  Again this year, as last, there is a fair chance.  I am way off the pace this year, in large part due to February.  But that is what makes the competition so engrossing.  Given the volatility that is possible in the CET, particularly in November and December, its going to be an interesting few months in this great competition.

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 As we enter the final quarter of the year, predicting close to the actual always gets more tricky, just as it was in the first quarter of the year.  Cumulative errors tend to be a lot lower in the 6 months April-September, than the 6 months either side.  For me, its now about whether my 5.99 all time low  cumulative error in 2016 will be beaten.  Again this year, as last, there is a fair chance.  I am way off the pace this year, in large part due to February.  But that is what makes the competition so engrossing.  Given the volatility that is possible in the CET, particularly in November and December, its going to be an interesting few months in this great competition.

The margin for error is most certainly greater in winter than it is in summer. I worked this out once, the difference between the absolute highest & lowest CET vakues is July is around 6C but in January more like 10C. An interesting few months indeed, my only regret is that I have been posting here since Jan 2013 yet this is the first year I have entered the CET competition!

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The margin for error is most certainly greater in winter than it is in summer. I worked this out once, the difference between the absolute highest & lowest CET vakues is July is around 6C but in January more like 10C. An interesting few months indeed, my only regret is that I have been posting here since Jan 2013 yet this is the first year I have entered the CET competition!

It is better to be late to the party than miss it altogether.  I have been on this site since 2003 and latterly 2006, and I only joined in the CET competition  for 2015 I think. Its been going at least 10 years, I'm sure someone can correct me, and will!

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Funnily enough, next week may have a higher CET mean than this week, depending on the ratio of tropical maritime to polar maritime air across the UK. 

GFS has quite a bit more of the latter than ECM for the 2nd half of next week, but despite that, numerous nights widely staying in double digits lead me to anticipate that it would still produce a mean at least on a par with this week's. I've not had the time this evening to process the numbers - might have a go with some of tomorrow's runs.

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Thanks to the Professional for his number crunching, makes interesting reading!

 

The margin for error is most certainly greater in winter than it is in summer. I worked this out once, the difference between the absolute highest & lowest CET vakues is July is around 6C but in January more like 10C. An interesting few months indeed, my only regret is that I have been posting here since Jan 2013 yet this is the first year I have entered the CET competition!

as you say Col, the winter months do open up some potential for significant swings keeping it interesting right to the end. 👍

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Met Office Hadley             14.0c.        Anomaly       -0.0c Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          13.83c       Anomaly       0.11c

Netweather                       14.4c         Anomaly       0.71c

PSJ                                   14.43c       Anomaly       -0.29c.

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It is better to be late to the party than miss it altogether.  I have been on this site since 2003 and latterly 2006, and I only joined in the CET competition  for 2015 I think. Its been going at least 10 years, I'm sure someone can correct me, and will!

 

I think that there was a more informal monthly comp, which evolved into a monthly & yearly comp in 2008 or 2009. 

2009 was the first year I entered and was a little less sophisticated than now, and I think the winner manipulated the fact that you didn't have to PM any forecasts to GW to calculate what they needed to forecast in December after waiting for all other entries to be made, in order to win.

 

 

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Met Office Hadley             14.0c.        Anomaly       -0.0c Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          13.83c       Anomaly       0.11c

Netweather                       14.4c         Anomaly       0.71c

PSJ                                   14.43c       Anomaly       -0.29c.

That could be the lowest it gets now.  The current output is suggesting the mean will rise next week due to milder nights.

We’ve had a few cracking clear days with low 20 temps but unfortunately the clear sky has meant low temps at night, increasing the diurnal difference and lowering the mean.  Ironically, as mentioned already, with cloudier and poorer weather next week, the daily mean should be higher as the nights are milder. 

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2009 was the first year I entered and was a little less sophisticated than now, and I think the winner manipulated the fact that you didn't have to PM any forecasts to GW to calculate what they needed to forecast in December after waiting for all other entries to be made, in order to win.

 

Yes. I remember that December well! I think we both lost out that time.....

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I started the competition in its current form in 2009. So this is year 11.

I have been taking a bit of a break for the past few weeks to enjoy the summer weather. Also been on holiday for the past 2 weeks. So not been keeping my regular CET tracker up to date. Will get that going again in October.

The CET mean by my calculations for the past 5 days has been 14.9C, 12.4C, 11.3C, 13.3C, 14.1C.

Over the rest of the month the mean should climb very slightly. The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C.

Based on the Hadley provisional mean of 14.0C to the 19th, the latest output would suggest a finishing CET of 14.25C before adjustments. The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C.

Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C. 

 

 

Yes. I remember that December well! I think we both lost out that time.....

 

Well you might have 

<<< evil laugh >>>

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Met Office Hadley          14.1c.       Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                       13.82c      Anomaly      0.14c

Netweather                    14.42c      Anomaly      0.73c

Peasedown St John         14.44c      Anomaly      -0.44c.      

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