A few days ago, the forecast was for a great weekend, whilst NWP for several days before that had been showing the settled weather continuing well into the following week.

Now we're due to have showers on Sunday, followed by unsettled through the following week with temps falling away.

But if 2/3 days of decent weather floats yer boat, then fill yer boots.

 

 

 

It's been pretty good all week so far to be fair and set to get better still, peaking on Saturday. That's a pretty good spell and my boots are well filled, thanks :)

Despite the unsettled Atlantic orientated look in the model outputs for next week, it'll probably still find a way to NOT (or hardly) rain here at Kent, as we do need the stuff with reservoir reserves across Kent being below average and also to bring the colour back to my dead looking lawn - but will there still be enough grass growing time left as we go into Autumn? 

 

 

A few days ago, the forecast was for a great weekend, whilst NWP for several days before that had been showing the settled weather continuing well into the following week.

Now we're due to have showers on Sunday, followed by unsettled through the following week with temps falling away.

But if 2/3 days of decent weather floats yer boat, then fill yer boots.

 

 

 

Had pretty much wall to wall sunshine for 8 days now with only last Monday being cloudy. Every day has managed at least 21C. Another 2-3 days of this to come before finally we see a little rain. Very nice british weather.

Models still can't agree on exact timing of breakdown but it seems to be well established by late Monday/ early Tuesday and then low pressure coming and going with showery activity for the rest of the week.

Synoptic models after that show continuing unsettled but more variable with some (very) brief dry and warmer interludes. There are still hurricane remnants around to upset the models with GFS0z showing a notably strong one doing a close pass around Oct 3rd. The 10-day temps http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 show some very cold weather over Scandinavia in a week's time, but I can't see it forecast elsewhere.

Against all this, ens runs are closely clustered around the average for some time to come, with modest rainfall spikes occurring frequently anywhere and everywhere.

After tomorrow low pressure is going to become the main player in our weather with spells of heavy rain and strong winds becoming more dominant

On a positive note at least it won't be cold 

A sequence of depressions for this coming week, some boosted by remnants of hurricanes Humberto and Jerry, but GFS 0z suggests something warmer and drier 3-6th October but wetter than average before then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Ens have temps descending to near average through to beginning of October , and don't agree on very much after that

Early Oct is still a long way off in forecasting terms. JFF.

This is exceptional. To my knowledge there is no reliable report of snow falling to lower levels in September in the UK (if anyone can find a reliable report then please post). If this came off it would be record breaking in perhaps more ways than one.

This is exceptional. To my knowledge there is no reliable report of snow falling to lower levels in September in the UK (if anyone can find a reliable report then please post). If this came off it would be record breaking in perhaps more ways than one.

 

Sept 25th 1885 snow fell on the capital - the earliest record for snow for the capital.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/snow-in-the-uk

 

 

Sept 25th 1885 snow fell on the capital - the earliest record for snow for the capital.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/snow-in-the-uk

 

I wouldn't count many of these 19th centuary reports. For example there is also the July 1888 snow event which is truly inconceivable. Most of these come from a time when soft hail was often confused for snow.

The 1885 event you talk of is shown here. Cold, but nowhere near cold enough for snow. However the profile is extremely convectively unstable so there would likely have been extensive heavy showers, thunderstorms e.c.t. on that day. So hail would have been ubiqitous including soft hail that looks somewhat like snow.

Also the ECM has a hurricane nearby!

TCs near Europe are vanishingly rare yet we have had two in recent years. Ophelia and Leslie came unbelievably close to landfalling in Europe.

This is exceptional. To my knowledge there is no reliable report of snow falling to lower levels in September in the UK (if anyone can find a reliable report then please post). If this came off it would be record breaking in perhaps more ways than one.

1919.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/32640-heatwave-then-snow-september-1919/

Bear in mind that depending on the upper atmospheric profile, it's more than possible to get snow at 850s of zero, so a quick glance at a chart showing 0 or -1 shouldn't be immediately written-off wrt snow.

Sadly as there were no radiosondes in the 19th century we're stuck with rough guesses as to the uppers, even at 850. I wouldn't rule out reports of snow in London in September either, TBH, as we know that things were a fair bit colder back then. Whereas today it'd be almost impossible, back then in a different era it wouldn't have been quite as hard. (Or, imagining a bell curve, the "cold enough for snow in September in London" part will have shifted from say 1% to 0.01%).

Plenty of interesting synoptics around. I'm beginning to wonder if there is an increasing tendency for more amplified synoptics in the autumn due to the jet stream taking longer to collect itself. (I know it's very early at the moment but am talking about the 3 month period as a whole)

 

1919.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/32640-heatwave-then-snow-september-1919/

Bear in mind that depending on the upper atmospheric profile, it's more than possible to get snow at 850s of zero, so a quick glance at a chart showing 0 or -1 shouldn't be immediately written-off wrt snow.

Sadly as there were no radiosondes in the 19th century we're stuck with rough guesses as to the uppers, even at 850. I wouldn't rule out reports of snow in London in September either, TBH, as we know that things were a fair bit colder back then. Whereas today it'd be almost impossible, back then in a different era it wouldn't have been quite as hard. (Or, imagining a bell curve, the "cold enough for snow in September in London" part will have shifted from say 1% to 0.01%).

Sure I'm not ruling out the 1885 event but I just think its unlikely given the synoptics were ideal for soft hail and that most meterologists acknoledge that soft hail and snow were very easily confused back then. Also I wouldn't immediately dismiss a snow event based on -1C uppers, but the conditions for snow occuring in those uppers was not imo met in the 1885 event. Its just too easily explained away as soft hail.

The 1919 event though is much more convincing. Occured during the night, A little feature with impressively cold air inside it. I'd definitely say this is the one to beat. Will look into archvied reports from September 20th 1919.

The contrast between the Op and Control in this morning's GEFS output is something to see.

The Control gives an Indian Summer type first week in October.

The Op offers an Arctic plunge, with oddly straight isobars from the far N pushing across Europe. This leads to snow events suggested over Albania, N Greece and Bulgaria, with ground frost in Rome and single digit maxes across NW Europe (inc. UK).

The contrast between the Op and Control in this morning's GEFS output is something to see.

The Control gives an Indian Summer type first week in October.

The Op offers an Arctic plunge, with oddly straight isobars from the far N pushing across Europe. This leads to snow events suggested over Albania, N Greece and Bulgaria, with ground frost in Rome and single digit maxes across NW Europe (inc. UK).

Yes, after general agreement for this week on a series of depressions with rain for everyone, and the temp generally declining from just above average to just below, next week is an 'anything could happen' week. 

The uncertainty seems to be associated with just how far LP clears to the east. There are potent northerlies around, but will they stay in Scandinavia (and down through middle Europe)or hang back and come down the North Sea? If the former, we could get some warmth pumped up from the south, though the prospects for this are less promising than suggested earlier - less warmth and later on.

Very low maxes for the N if the latest Op delivers- at short range.

After the generally disturbed Atlantic weather this week (albeit souped up by hurricane remnants) it looks like we will be dodging bullets in the first week of October - potent northerlies over Scandinavia to the east and a hurricane still very much identifiable to the west. In the middle it looks warm-ish and dry-ish but only a slight shift in either thread could alter the outlook dramatically.

After the generally disturbed Atlantic weather this week (albeit souped up by hurricane remnants) it looks like we will be dodging bullets in the first week of October - potent northerlies over Scandinavia to the east and a hurricane still very much identifiable to the west. In the middle it looks warm-ish and dry-ish but only a slight shift in either thread could alter the outlook dramatically.