EC ens looking more settled than the op, at least for the south. But summer looks on its last legs. But we've had a good run

EC ens looking more settled than the op, at least for the south. But summer looks on its last legs. But we've had a good run

Yes, I’ll be happy with one last nice weekend now. But I am starting to shift into Autumn/Winter mode now.

A bit of a shift this morning, with hurricane-inspired depressions affecting the UK around the 24th (that'll be Humberto) on both GFS 0z and ECM, and then again on the 28th (GFS). GFS seems keener than ECM on fitting in a bit of warmth in between. Ens runs go into a real scramble after the 24th.

But while we're waiting for the main event, BBC weather is now supported by GEFS in offering some thunderstorms for the south coast on Sunday. A light show would be nice- haven't had one here yet this year (though IIRC only just missed one which went to Portsmouth instead)

 

 

When September doth be dry and hot

The coming winter will freeze the lot

If ice in November my bear a duck - then winter will be of slush and muck.

Amazing some snow cover already in the Russian Far East.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Anyone else looking at the far reaches of models looking for signs of frost and wintry showers??

I’m guessing you spotted the charts at the end of the GFS 1z op run? 

It is somewhat of a cold outlier up here. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

Amazing some snow cover already in the Russian Far East.

 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

Uh-oh; the OPI is edging in early this year.

When weather folk tales hit the screen

We know the thread must need a clean.

Anyone else looking at the far reaches of models looking for signs of frost and wintry showers??

Not until November.  At this stage in the cycle I'm still looking for settled summerlike weather whilst the sun is still reasonably strong and the days are longer than the nights.

When weather folk tales hit the screen

We know the thread must need a clean.

Arctic blast in the 12z, gone by morning....

 

Arctic blast in the 12z, gone by morning....

To creep back in, whilst we are snoring. 

Breakdown of the fine weather around Mon/Tues 23/24 with major depression to north of UK - quite a good result for longterm forecasting as this was predicted some 10 days back, though the showers now included as curtain raiser on Sunday weren't spotted.

GFS keeps the weather unsettled for the week, but ECM has HP returning to the south at least, These two models  have swapped their forecast positions since yesterday. After that, the chance of something drier and more settled for the first week of October, especially in the south, though not as good as the present spell.

The cold pool is back in western Russia - they've had a miserably cold summer. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Looking at ECM the rest of this week remains mostly settled with Saturday possibly quite warm as we pick up a southerly 

Things start to deteriorate during Sunday and that sets up the first proper unsettled spell of Autumn with low pressure never far away next week

Macs and brollies out for nest week. Do you really want a detailed analysis?

The models have handled the breakdown very well, I was hoping Humberto would sustain things, but sadly not

Looks like Sunday is the last warm day, then its central heating switch on time!

Breakdown of the fine weather around Mon/Tues 23/24 with major depression to north of UK - quite a good result for longterm forecasting as this was predicted some 10 days back, though the showers now included as curtain raiser on Sunday weren't spotted.

Yes, I've noticed that it has been predicted consistently for a long time by the GEFS.

I've also noticed that the major change in weather pattern pretty much coincides with the equinox, and this has provoked me to wonder whether there could be any correlation between the two (while bearing in mind the awareness that correlation is not causation), or whether it is indeed just coincidence. Is anyone aware of any past instances of major changes in weather pattern happening at the equinox (either vernal or autumnal)?  Perhaps this needs a separate thread, but as it is relevant to forecasting, I'll start by asking here.

Macs and brollies out for nest week. Do you really want a detailed analysis?

It's almost like the weather gods will always seek and find a way for this country to get crap weather.

 

 

It's almost like the weather gods will always seek and find a way for this country to get crap weather.

 

 

Yeah like 23C and sunny for NW England on Saturday. That's really crap for the 2nd half of September isn't it?

 

Yeah like 23C and sunny for NW England on Saturday. That's really crap for the 2nd half of September isn't it?

A few days ago, the forecast was for a great weekend, whilst NWP for several days before that had been showing the settled weather continuing well into the following week.

Now we're due to have showers on Sunday, followed by unsettled through the following week with temps falling away.

But if 2/3 days of decent weather floats yer boat, then fill yer boots.