I have not had time to post up the September thread yet. Will do so later today.

The deadline for September entries is midnight tonight so don't forget to send them through by PM as always.

I have not had time to post up the September thread yet. Will do so later today.

The deadline for September entries is midnight tonight so don't forget to send them through by PM as always.

OK Simon. Soon as I see it I'll sticky it for you.

Busy day for me so here goes..

Met Office Hadley        17.4c.       Anomaly    1.6c.    Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                     17.18c      Anomaly    0.96c

Netweather                  17.79c      Anomaly     1.6c

PSJ                              17.7c       Anomaly      1.6c.        

Final August CET is 17.06C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2019

Our winner is marting with a prediction of 17.05C. Congratulations to him.

Well done marting!

I held out hope to the end, but am very happy with my 17.12 as it's probably the closest miss I've had and I put my bid in fairly early.

Just checked others' errors to July and think I've nudged up a couple of places, back in the top 10, and snapping at the heels of a certain somebody!

Great fun! I think you've kept your lead Col!

Edit again: the link GW takes us to the daily estimated daily but the average still seems to be to 30th on the HadCET page. Am I missing something? Hope my trumpeting isn't premature!

Well done marting!

I held out hope to the end, but am very happy with my 17.12 as it's probably the closest miss I've had and I put my bid in fairly early.

Just checked others' errors to July and think I've nudged up a couple of places, back in the top 10, and snapping at the heels of a certain somebody!

Great fun! I think you've kept your lead Col!

Edit again: the link GW takes us to the daily estimated daily but the average still seems to be to 30th on the HadCET page. Am I missing something? Hope my trumpeting isn't premature!

Yes indeed and by my calculations added a few tenths of a degree onto it as well!

Here are the charts for August. Another above average month by 0.65C compared to the 1981-2010 mean.

We had one CET mean date record on 25 August with 21.7C beating the previous figure of 20.9C set in 1899.

August CET tracker

Daily mean anomalies

Daily Hadley CET

Daily Hadley data

Daily Hadley anomalies

Here is the summer CET tracker. We finished at 16.28C which is 0.4C above the 1981-2010 mean

Summer 2019 CET tracker

Annual CET competition - August update

No change at the top this month. Col is still comfortably in the lead.

marting moves up to second after winning the August competition.

September could be very interesting. Col has made a prediction that is out of line with all of those in the places behind him. So either he is going to extend his lead significantly in September or it will be wiped out entirely and it really will be game on for the final three months. Details coming shortly in the September thread. 

Full sized table

Well at least I excelled at something with my August guess - I did manage the largest fall out of everyone

All I needed was that heatwave to be replaced with a cool, unsettled spell instead and I'd have been moving up instead of freefalling

Cheers, GW. 

I noticed that some competitors have had a fantastic summer, their aggregate margins of error across the 3 months being tiny. 

Mean Central England Temperature  For August 2019.   17.1c.   Anomaly     1.3c.

If I could keep up the run of good fortune with errors of 0.2 or less each month, I wonder how far I could climb .

Feb was so damaging this year. Most of us would have substantially lower cumulative average monthly errors if that one was excluded - most notably Col, staggeringly enough! 

If I could keep up the run of good fortune with errors of 0.2 or less each month, I wonder how far I could climb .

Feb was so damaging this year. Most of us would have substantially lower cumulative average monthly errors if that one was excluded - most notably Col, staggeringly enough! 

Indeed, I note that my January & February error is greater than that of the following 6 months combined. I was disappointed to only go up 1 place in the table despite a 0.16C error for August. I have gone low for September compared to Col and others.

If I could keep up the run of good fortune with errors of 0.2 or less each month, I wonder how far I could climb .

Feb was so damaging this year. Most of us would have substantially lower cumulative average monthly errors if that one was excluded - most notably Col, staggeringly enough! 

I had a lucky break with February SC, and it was an unusual month, especially at the end, with 5 x 14C + days.

If I could keep up the run of good fortune with errors of 0.2 or less each month, I wonder how far I could climb .

Feb was so damaging this year. Most of us would have substantially lower cumulative average monthly errors if that one was excluded - most notably Col, staggeringly enough! 

It looks like February represents half of my entire cumulative error so far this year. The warm spell at the end of the month was so utterly unprecedented that few of us covered ourselves with glory and relatively speaking I didn't do all that badly.

Worth noting that the average prediction error in August was just 0.39C, easily the lowest of the year and probably one of the lowest ever. So difficult for anyone to make much of a move in the table even with a very close prediction.

What we need are some months with significant deviations from average to shake things up a bit. September this year does not look ripe for this, although Atlantic hurricanes throwing a spanner in the works can always mix things up. November and December often give rise to big prediction errors so plenty of time for some big changes in the table.

Worth noting that the average prediction error in August was just 0.39C, easily the lowest of the year and probably one of the lowest ever. So difficult for anyone to make much of a move in the table even with a very close prediction.

What we need are some months with significant deviations from average to shake things up a bit. September this year does not look ripe for this, although Atlantic hurricanes throwing a spanner in the works can always mix things up. November and December often give rise to big prediction errors so plenty of time for some big changes in the table.

Actually I'm pretty happy with the way things are at the moment to be honest :)

Seriously though, you are right. The difference between the record highest & lowest CET is significantly greater in the winter than it is in the summer so there is most certainly scope for some big errors in Nov/Dec. And let's face it, I'm due a month when I stuff up big time!

Here are the daily maximum temperatures for August. Two date records bringing the total for 2019 so far to 11

Heathrow was the hottest or joint hottest location on 10 days, Cavendish on 8.

Table