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Offline Gavin D  
#781 Posted : 11 September 2019 12:23:20(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Monday 16 Sep - Wednesday 25 Sep

The middle of September is likely to be widely settled and dry with light winds and plenty of sunshine, especially in the south of the UK. There will be a greater chance for windier conditions, some rain and a few showers in the north, particularly for northern Scotland. Temperatures are expected to be near average by day, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations. Away from the north, which may remain more changeable, the settled conditions are likely to extend through the period with temperatures remaining near normal for the time of year, with warm days offset by chilly nights and a chance for some patchy fog during the early morning.

Thursday 26 Sep - Thursday 10 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October. However, the most likely situation is for a more changeable pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

User is suspended until 24/10/2019 21:28:32(UTC) Solar Cycles  
#782 Posted : 11 September 2019 16:54:57(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Joined: 04/09/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,458
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Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Monday 16 Sep - Wednesday 25 Sep

The middle of September is likely to be widely settled and dry with light winds and plenty of sunshine, especially in the south of the UK. There will be a greater chance for windier conditions, some rain and a few showers in the north, particularly for northern Scotland. Temperatures are expected to be near average by day, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations. Away from the north, which may remain more changeable, the settled conditions are likely to extend through the period with temperatures remaining near normal for the time of year, with warm days offset by chilly nights and a chance for some patchy fog during the early morning.

Thursday 26 Sep - Thursday 10 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October. However, the most likely situation is for a more changeable pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Its certainly sounds much different to what we’ve been accustomed to during recent October’s, much more Autumnal sounding for sure.👍

Offline Gavin D  
#783 Posted : 12 September 2019 12:36:32(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Tuesday 17 Sep - Thursday 26 Sep

Tuesday starts cloudy with some drizzle in the south. This will gradually clear with sunny spells developing for most, although showers are likely in the north. The rest of the week sees predominantly settled conditions across the UK, with any wet and windy weather confined to the far north. There'll be some warm sunshine by day, but some chilly nights with overnight fog patches possible. This weather pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the period, with drier and more settled conditions probable for many, especially across the south, while any windier conditions with rain or showers most likely across the north. Temperatures are expected to be around average, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations.

Friday 27 Sep - Friday 11 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October, however it is likely that the more settled conditions will prevail until the end of September, with any wet and windy weather largely confined to the north, although this could move further southeast at times. Moving into October the most likely situation seems to be a return towards a more changeable weather pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are most likely remain close to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north, and with a risk of frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline tallyho_83  
#784 Posted : 12 September 2019 23:53:48(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,446
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Tuesday 17 Sep - Thursday 26 Sep

Tuesday starts cloudy with some drizzle in the south. This will gradually clear with sunny spells developing for most, although showers are likely in the north. The rest of the week sees predominantly settled conditions across the UK, with any wet and windy weather confined to the far north. There'll be some warm sunshine by day, but some chilly nights with overnight fog patches possible. This weather pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the period, with drier and more settled conditions probable for many, especially across the south, while any windier conditions with rain or showers most likely across the north. Temperatures are expected to be around average, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations.

Friday 27 Sep - Friday 11 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October, however it is likely that the more settled conditions will prevail until the end of September, with any wet and windy weather largely confined to the north, although this could move further southeast at times. Moving into October the most likely situation seems to be a return towards a more changeable weather pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are most likely remain close to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north, and with a risk of frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

After last February's failure I don't take this as Gospel but it's interesting!!

Been a while since we saw a cooler Sept/Oct with frosts and been a while since we had a good Autumnal gale - I am fed up of slugs etc! Bring on the frost and kill this horrible slimy things!! they are sliding into my kitchen now!

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Gavin D  
#785 Posted : 13 September 2019 11:37:13(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
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Wednesday 18 Sep - Friday 27 Sep

A chilly start on Wednesday, with any fog soon clearing to leave a dry day with sunny periods, although the extreme northwest may be cloudier with patchy rain. The rest of the week sees predominantly settled conditions across the UK, with any wet and windy weather confined to the far north. There'll be some warm sunshine, but some chilly nights, with overnight fog patches possible. This weather pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the period, with drier and more settled conditions probable for many, especially across the south, while any windier conditions with rain or showers most likely across the north. Temperatures are expected to be around average, and possibly warm in the south at first, but cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations.

Saturday 28 Sep - Saturday 12 Oct

Confidence remains low for the end of September and into October, however it is likely that the more settled conditions will prevail until the end of September, with any wet and windy weather largely confined to the north, although this could move further southeast at times. Moving into October the most likely situation seems to be a return towards a more changeable weather pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are most likely remain close to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north, and with a risk of frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#786 Posted : 14 September 2019 09:17:30(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

High pressure frequently keeping fronts at bay

_________________________________

Saturday 14 September – Sunday 22 September

Some rain at times

Saturday will be fine across southern and central Britain, with lots of sunshine for England and Wales. Central and northern Scotland will be rather cloudy and windy with outbreaks of rain, and gales across the far north. It will become cloudier across Northern Ireland and southern Scotland, with a risk of rain here later in the day. A band of cloud and a few spots of rain will sink south towards north Wales and the Midlands on Sunday, giving a rather cloudy and damp day here. Dry with a good deal of sunshine for southern England, and rather warm and humid too, but breezier across Scotland with the odd shower in the west. Monday will see the band of cloud and patchy rain slowly fade across southern England and Wales, with westerly winds continuing to bring a few further showers to western Scotland and the Northern Isles. There will be a good deal of sunshine elsewhere.

A chilly but generally clear night will follow, while Tuesday and Wednesday will be fine but rather cool with sunny periods and patchy cloud, and perhaps a few light showers edging into North Sea coasts of England and Scotland. After mid-week, high pressure is expected to slowly drift east across the UK, giving a good deal of fine and sunny weather almost everywhere, while temperatures will slowly climb as winds shift to an east and then south-easterly direction. Shetland will see some breezier and wetter weather at times though. With light winds expected for many areas, mist and fog may develop more widely during the nights, particularly across England and Wales.

Monday 23 September – Sunday 29 September

A warm start, but unsettled for a time mid-week

A warm start across southern and central Britain, with south or south-westerly winds pushing temperatures well above normal for one or two days. Fronts will remain closer to Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing a chance of rain and stronger winds. These rather unsettled conditions look like becoming a little more widespread across the country through the middle of the week, when a few weakening fronts may move south and east across England and Wales. However, much of southern and south-eastern England will see little rain, perhaps with a couple of cloudier and breezier days instead.

It looks like high pressure will build back across the UK from the south-west through the latter half of the week, with a couple of low pressure areas then passing to the north of Scotland. Winds falling light at times and lengthier sunny spells developing. Any wet and windy weather should fade across northern Britain too, although it may be cloudier and breezier with a risk of rain in the far north at times.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 13 October

Frequently calm and sunny

The end of September may see some drier and warmer days once again, with high pressure, perhaps located over the near Continent, providing a warm south or south-easterly airflow for a time. Therefore, the month could end on a relatively dry and calm note for many, with areas of low pressure kept at bay in the Atlantic. As we head into early October, it looks more likely that high pressure will lie just to the west of the UK, in the north-east Atlantic, with low pressure areas more frequent across Scandinavia. With the UK often lying between these two systems, there could occasionally be some breezier and wetter weather for the north and east, perhaps with a couple of weakening fronts bringing some showers in from the north-west.

While Scotland may see some cooler west or north-westerly winds at times, high pressure should maintain a good deal of warm, dry and calm weather for western and south-western areas, where there should also be some good spells of Autumn sunshine. This same general weather pattern looks set to continue into the second week of October, although high pressure may occasionally extend further north by this stage. This would allow more frequent north-westerly airflows to filter across the country, pushing temperatures below average across northern areas. Lots of sunshine, particularly across western areas, while cloud and the odd shower may perhaps drift in from the North Sea at times.

Further ahead

Will we see Atlantic low pressure systems roar into life during the second half of October, bringing much-needed rainfall to southern Britain?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#787 Posted : 14 September 2019 19:22:30(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Thursday 19 Sep - Saturday 28 Sep

Dry and bright weather is expected to dominate on Thursday and Friday. Daytime temperatures are likely to be warm for most, and perhaps very warm in the southeast. There could be chilly nights though, with overnight fog patches. Any wet and windy weather will be confined to the far northwest. Over the weekend, cooler, unsettled weather will move in from the west, continuing into the start of next week. The situation beyond next Tuesday is uncertain, but the most likely situation is for southeastern UK to stay fairly dry, with warm daytime temperatures. Low night temperatures are likely, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog or even frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times, and lower daytime temperatures.

Sunday 29 Sep - Sunday 13 Oct

Confidence remains low for the end of September and into October, and a number of different weather scenarios are possible. However the most likely situation is for southeastern UK to stay on the dry side of average, with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. Low temperatures are likely during many of the nights, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and ground frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times, and lower daytime temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#788 Posted : 15 September 2019 12:24:43(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
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Friday 20 Sep - Sunday 29 Sep

Dry, sunny and warm weather is expected to dominate on Friday and Saturday with any wet and windy weather confined to the far northwest. Overnight temperatures will be on the cool side for many bringing a chance for some patchy mist and fog, especially in the south. By Sunday cooler, unsettled weather is expected to move in from the west and herald a spell of rather changeable weather for part of the working week. There is a degree of uncertainty as we head towards the last weekend of September. On balance we should see a northwest to southeast split in the weather with the strongest winds and heaviest spells of rainfall in the northwest, and the best of the dry, warm, and sunny weather in the southeast.

Monday 30 Sep - Monday 14 Oct

Confidence remains low through this period and a number of different weather scenarios are possible. However the most likely situation is for southeastern parts of the UK see the best of the dry weather with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. Low temperatures are likely during many of the nights, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and ground frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times. It will be cloudier in the northwest leading to lower daytime temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#789 Posted : 16 September 2019 15:53:01(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Saturday 21 Sep - Monday 30 Sep

Dry, sunny and warm weather is expected for many on Saturday after patchy mist and fog clears in the morning. There is a chance of thicker cloud and outbreaks of heavy rain arriving in the west during the afternoon with strengthening winds. By Sunday cooler, wet and windy weather is likely to spread east, bringing a spell of rather changeable weather into the following week. There is some uncertainty as we head towards the last week of September. On balance we should see a northwest to southeast split in the weather with the strongest winds and heaviest spells of rainfall in the northwest, and the best of the dry, warm, and sunny weather in the southeast, still with some rain at times.

Tuesday 1 Oct - Tuesday 15 Oct

Confidence remains low through this period and a number of different weather scenarios are possible. However the most likely situation is for southeastern parts of the UK see the best of the dry weather with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. Low temperatures are likely during many of the nights, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and rural frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times. It will be cloudier in the northwest leading to lower daytime temperatures here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#790 Posted : 17 September 2019 12:01:06(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Sunday 22 Sep - Tuesday 1 Oct

After a mostly fine start to the weekend, unsettled weather in the west will probably spread to eastwards to affect most areas on Sunday, with outbreaks of rain, which may be heavy at times. With this, winds will strengthen too with the risk of gales in the west and north and it will feel cooler here too. Thereafter, as we look ahead into the final week of September changeable weather is likely to dominate for many, with the northwest probably seeing the strongest winds and heaviest rain. In contrast, southeastern areas may see longer spells of drier and brighter weather, but with the chance of some rain too, although confidence in the forecast becomes low.

Wednesday 2 Oct - Wednesday 16 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However the most likely situation is for a northwest/southeast split. Northwestern areas will probably continue to see spells of wet and windy weather with occasional brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be on the cooler side here too. Meanwhile southeastern parts of the UK are more likely to see the best of the dry weather with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. However, overnight in the southeast it will turn chilly bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and rural frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#791 Posted : 18 September 2019 10:06:21(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often dry in the south with rain in the north west

_________________________________

Wednesday 18 September – Sunday 22 September

Fine for most, but cloud and rain this weekend

High pressure will dominate the UK weather for the rest of the working week, blocking any weather fronts from bringing significant weather to England and Wales. Here, largely dry and sunny weather can be expected, although some mist and fog is likely to develop overnight, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday nights. After chilly mornings, temperatures will rise to give some warm afternoons, with temperatures tending to climb later in the week too. Meanwhile, a weak warm front will bring rather cloudy and damp weather to central and northern Scotland on Wednesday, with low cloud and drizzle lingering across the Northern Isles early on Thursday. Increasingly dry and fine weather should develop across Scotland later on Thursday and on Friday.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the week, but rather breezy too, with south-easterly winds pushing temperatures into the mid-20s Celsius across southern and south eastern Britain. The eastern half of the country will see a good deal of fine and sunny weather, although building cloud in the west will bring some showers to Wales and south west England, perhaps with the odd rumble of thunder. Cloud and outbreaks of rain will push further east across Great Britain overnight into Sunday. While eastern areas may start off dry with some early sunshine, the afternoon will be rather cloudy with further spells of rain for most; and feeling rather warm and humid across southern and eastern Britain.

Monday 23 September – Sunday 29 September

A mild and unsettled start, but pressure building

Another rather warm and humid day with some early sunny spells across southern and south-eastern areas on Monday, thanks to south-westerly winds ahead of an advancing front from the west, which will bring wet and windy weather to Ireland and north-western Britain through the day. A band of increasingly patchy rain may slide east across England overnight into Tuesday, which will be a cooler and quite windy day with brisk west to south-westerly winds driving showers into western and central areas. A deep area of low pressure centred to the north west could bring strong winds to western Scotland then. Some heavier rain is possible for central and northern Britain overnight into Wednesday, as a small low pressure area races in from the west, while it looks like the middle of the week will remain rather windy with a few further showers or spells of rain for northern and western Britain in particular.

Towards the end of next week, it looks like areas of low pressure will slowly retreat further north, gradually moving away from our shores. This should allow high pressure to encroach across southern Britain from the south west, allowing increasingly dry and calm weather to develop here, with some good periods of sunshine looking likely to end the week. Temperatures may also climb a little higher too. Winds should tend to subside across northern Britain, although northern and western Scotland may continue to see further bands of rain continuing to move in from the west.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 13 October

Perhaps turning calmer and drier

The end of September and first couple of days in October should continue to see high pressure lingering close to the country, and so a few days with warm and largely dry weather seem possible for many areas. However, it seems likely that depressions will move across northern Britain from the Atlantic later in the week, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather, especially to western Scotland. Southern England and Wales will remain much drier and calmer though, as high pressure centred to the south west may prevent any significant wet and windy episodes here. In fact, temperatures are likely to remain above average for all, but particularly for southern Britain where the calmest and sunniest weather is expected.

By the second week of October, there are some hints that high pressure will build back close to the UK. This would bring a significant change for northern Britain in particular, with drier and calmer weather perhaps becoming more widespread across the nation. Mist and fog may become more prevalent during the nights, with warm and sunny afternoons often following chilly mornings. However, there is a large divergence regarding computer model simulations for this week, and this reduces our confidence.

Further ahead

Will mid-October bring any significant rain to southern England and Wales?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#792 Posted : 18 September 2019 13:05:50(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Monday 23 Sep - Wednesday 2 Oct

The final week of September will start dry for most with Monday seeing the longest spells of sunshine in the east. Further west cloud, rain and strengthening winds will push in, especially later in the day and overall temperatures will be fresher than recent days. Thereafter, unsettled weather is likely to dominate for many at first with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and the potential for gales, particularly in the west and north. Temperatures will be close to normal, but in any drier spells, days may be warmer than average whilst nights cooler than average. Confidence in the forecast reduces towards the turn of the month, but there is the potential for some more widely settled weather to become established across the country.

Thursday 3 Oct - Thursday 17 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However early October may continue to see some fine and settled weather with bright days, but mist, fog and increasingly some frost overnight. Northern parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#793 Posted : 19 September 2019 11:28:25(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Tuesday 24 Sep - Thursday 3 Oct

The final week of September will see showers or longer spells of rain become more dominant. Tuesday will see some heavy showers, particularly across the southwest where it will be windy with the risk of gales too. Some sunny spells are likely though and it will remain rather warm in the east, but elsewhere feeling cooler than of late. Thereafter, frontal systems will push in bringing spells of rain and the potential for gales, particularly in the west and north. Temperatures will be close to normal, but in any drier spells, days may be warmer than average whilst nights cooler than average. Confidence in the forecast reduces towards the turn of the month, but there is the potential for some more widely settled weather to become established across the country.

Friday 4 Oct - Friday 18 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However early October may continue to see some fine and settled weather with bright days, but mist, fog and increasingly some frost overnight. Northern parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#794 Posted : 20 September 2019 12:19:17(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Wind and rain sweep in
  • Tropical sources of uncertainty
  • Unreliable winter forecasts

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/09/20/john-hammond-enjoy-rays-remember-autumn/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Offline Gavin D  
#795 Posted : 21 September 2019 09:20:45(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled spell but drier and calmer in October

_________________________________

Saturday 21 September – Sunday 29 September

Fine, dry and warm at first, but turning unsettled

The area of high pressure which brought fine and dry weather to most parts of the country for the past few days has now slipped south-eastwards into central and eastern Europe. The dry and sunny weather should continue for most areas throughout Saturday, but showers are likely to affect western and south-western parts of the UK, mainly South West England, Wales and perhaps Northern Ireland. The showers could start on Saturday morning, but they are more likely during Saturday afternoon or evening. Some heavy and thundery showers could develop. However, the bulk of the UK will remain dry and warm although rather breezy. Sunday will see a more widespread change to unsettled weather as showers and rain push north-eastwards.

There is a good chance that Scotland and North East England will remain dry for most of the day, but other areas will be prone to seeing some rain at some point. A more unsettled week with low pressure systems more of a feature. There will be showers and longer spells of rain, perhaps accompanied by spells of windy weather too. The remains of Hurricane Humberto will feed into the mix and could bring heavy rainfall to some areas in the first half of the week. As well as looking wetter and windier than this week, next week also looks cooler than it has been over the last few days. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal for the time of year, although it is likely to be a little warmer than average over the week as a whole.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 6 October

A short settled spell then rain possible later

High pressure is expected to build close to or over the western half of the country at the very end of September, so a few days of dry and calm weather seem possible for many areas. Normally high pressure located close or over NW Europe would tend to generate north-westerly or northerly winds, but we think it is likely that these cooler winds will remain to the east of the UK and Ireland. As a result, temperatures are expected to continue above average in most areas. However, it looks likely that this ridge of high pressure will decline south-eastwards into Europe during the week allowing Atlantic low pressure systems to affect the UK again.

This means that whilst the first half of the week should be relatively dry and calm, the second half of the week is more likely to be windier and wetter, with some places possibly wetter than normal for the time of year over the week as a whole. There is some uncertainty however. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is that the ridge of high pressure does not develop as strongly or remains further south. This would leave the UK under the influence of Atlantic low pressure systems for much of the week. However, some areas of the country have been relatively dry in recent weeks, so a little extra rain might not be unwelcome.

Monday 7 October – Sunday 20 October

Probably turning calmer, drier and warmer again

There is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast for the middle two weeks of October. This is at least partly due to tropical storm activity in the North Atlantic, which tends to introduce a level of uncertainty into medium and longer range weather forecasts at this time of year. However, there are still indications that the second week of October will see high pressure building close to or over the UK once again, bringing another spell of dry and settled weather. It looks warmer than normal too.

The high pressure is expected to remain nearby after the middle of the month, although it looks may shift a little further eastwards or south-eastwards. This would allow Atlantic weather systems to affect some western areas of the country at times, but overall the relatively dry, calm and warm weather is likely to continue. If the high pressure area shifts further east across Europe we could see some very warm southerly winds affecting the UK, although there would also be more of a chance of rain moving in from the Atlantic.

Further ahead

Will it remain settled as we move towards the end of October?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#796 Posted : 21 September 2019 09:22:02(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Wednesday 25 Sep - Friday 4 Oct

Through the rest of September, we will see a mixture of changeable days with sunny spells in between showers, and days with grey skies and more persistent rainfall. It is likely to be windy at times, with the potential for gales, particularly in the west and southwest. Temperatures will be close to normal, but in any drier spells, they may be warmer than average. Into the start of October, it is most likely that we will see a continuation of the changeable weather, although this is not certain yet. We could also see a return of more settled weather for the southeast, but still in the northwest it may remain unsettled with wind and rain.

Saturday 5 Oct - Saturday 19 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However early October may bring some fine and settled weather with bright days, but mist, fog and increasingly some frost overnight. Northern and western parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#797 Posted : 21 September 2019 13:59:18(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Thursday 26 Sep - Saturday 5 Oct

Rain and strong winds will spread eastwards across the UK on Thursday, with gales possible in the north and west. It will stay unsettled for the end of September, with a mixture of some sunny days, and cloudier days with more persistent rainfall. It is likely to be windy at times, with the potential for gales, particularly in the west and southwest. Temperatures will vary around normal, but in any drier spells, they may be warmer than average. Into the start of October, it is most likely that we will see a continuation of the changeable weather, although this is not certain yet. We could also see a return of more settled weather for the southeast, but still, in the northwest, it may remain unsettled, with wind and rain.

Sunday 6 Oct - Sunday 20 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However, early October may bring some fine and settled weather. This would bring bright days, but with the increasing risk of overnight mist, fog and some frost. Northern and western parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#798 Posted : 22 September 2019 14:51:38(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Friday 27 Sep - Sunday 6 Oct

Draft Friday is likely to be a windy day in most places with sunshine and showers. Gales are possible on western coasts and hills. The heaviest showers will probably in the west while some eastern places may avoid most of the showers. Next weekend is also likely to be rather windy with sunshine and heavy showers affecting much of the UK. It will probably stay changeable for the rest of the period with a mixture of some sunny days, and cloudier days with more persistent rainfall. It is likely to be windy at times, with the potential for gales, particularly in the west and southwest. Temperatures will vary around normal, but in any drier spells, they may be warmer than average.

Monday 7 Oct - Monday 21 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However, early October may bring spells of fine and settled weather, particularly in the south and east of the UK. These would bring bright days, but with the increasing risk of overnight mist, fog and some frost. Northern and western parts of the country may continue to see rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and cooler nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Never heard of 'Draft Friday' before!

Offline tallyho_83  
#799 Posted : 23 September 2019 10:40:25(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,446
Location: Devon

Just wanted to share this progression of a heavy rain storm in Braunton from it passing over Westward Ho! Bideford, Fremington, Instow across the Burrows and coming inland into Braunton on Sunday 22nd Sept:

Was great fun to monitor!!

16:45pm

16:50

16:55

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Gavin D  
#800 Posted : 23 September 2019 12:36:09(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,173
Man
United Kingdom

Saturday 28 Sep - Monday 7 Oct

The unsettled conditions looks set to continue this weekend with a mixture of sunny spells and showers for most. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent across northern and western parts. However, there is the risk of heavy rain and strong winds arriving into the southwest later on Saturday and into Sunday. The unsettled weather looks set to remain as we go into early October, with further wet and windy weather likely to affect mainly northern and western parts of the UK, with the risk of gales at times. However, southern and eastern parts could see some drier and brighter periods, with the risk of overnight fog. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above the average, but cooler in the wind and rain at times.

Tuesday 8 Oct - Tuesday 22 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However, towards the middle of October we may see spells of fine and settled weather becoming more widespread, particularly in the south and east of the UK. These would bring bright days, but with the increasing risk of overnight fog and probably some frost. However, it is more likely that we will see a north/south split, with northern and western parts of the country continuing to see rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and cooler nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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