What surprises me is that the actual intensity of the rain in a hurricane isn't really that much. For instance Dorian's heavier bands are around 10mm per hour with occasional burst of 22mm per hour.

I guess it's the accumulation that counts.

 

(Next name up is Gabrielle) 

Not Garielle yet but TD8 and developing. To my surprise, it's forecast to head off into mid-atlantic rather than travel across to the Caribbean - weather underground are calling it a 'fish storm' as it only disturbs the fish. They say the one to watch is the new one now just on the west coast of Africa.

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Gabrielle now confirmed and forecast to achieve hurricane status in N Atlantic.

Devastation reports now coming out of Bermuda - enormous amount of rebuilding and restoring infrastructure (water supplies a major problem as wells have become saline) but although 20 deaths and counting are now reported, loss of life less severe than night have been expected. But Dorian hasn't finished and has recovered to cat 3 - a landfall in N Carolina now expected then out to sea before a second landfall in Nova Scotia still at hurricane status. Weather underground says that Dorian has expended more cyclone energy on its own than the entire season's total for 11 seasons since 1950

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In the Pacific, Supertyphoon LingLing looks very dangerous

 

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You don't normally associate Newfoundland with tropical storms - but that's what Dorian is generating for next Mon/Tue before losing itself in the N Atlantic. Gabrielle is also going to interact with the N Atlantic a day or two later.

GFS 0z has yet another major storm hitting Newfoundland at the end of its run, presumably the disturbance currently setting off from Africa. If so, that disturbance will do a repeat of Dorian, not good news.

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Grim pictures here - astonishing and awful damage "just" due to the wind blowing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-49590992

and Dorian continues to menace life with storm surges

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49611118

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Faxai now a very powerful typhoon and heading for Japan

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/FAXAI.html

 

 

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We moan about the British weather, but we should be thankful really. 

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Dorian was upgraded to category 2 just before making landfall in Nova Scotia. This was apparently due to baroclinic effects as the storm was going through extra tropical transition. At one point yesterday evening 80% of Nova Scotia was without power, the highest figure ever. Wind gusts in excess of 140kph. Lowest pressure reading of all time for September at just under 950mb.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/thousands-without-electricity-ahead-of-hurricane-dorian-1.5274741

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/al05/al052019.discus.058.shtml?

I have just booked a holiday to Nova Scotia for early July next year. Should be a very low risk of hurricanes then as very early in the season.

FAXAI making landfall in Tokyo

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/FAXAI.html

Absolutely no coverage in our media about thus

 

 

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According to Ventusky, on 3PM Wednesay 11/9, FAXAI is going to whistle across Asia and Europe, crossing Cornwall by 8PM and then heading out into the Atlantic and N America.

No, I don't believe it either!!!

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95L off N Cuba, forecast to intensify into tropical storm with heavy rain across S Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Models don't say a hurricane, but the prospects of its development have jumped dramatically in he last 24 hrs so might get stronger yet. 

94L in southern mid-Atlantic not doing much (all that pesky dry air) and another unnamed disturbance by the Cabo Verde islands to watch

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If it makes it into the Gulf, then anything possible as we have seen in recent years

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If it makes it into the Gulf, then anything possible as we have seen in recent years

This disturbance is now TC9, not enough spin yet to develop into a full-blown storm but the NW Bahamas in its track could do without even heavy rain while trying to recover after Dorian.

Lots of uncertainty about its future track - yesterday Weather Underground found predictions for landfall in different models anywhere from Yucatan to Newfoundland! NHC this morning has it running up the Florida coast as a tropical storm and then out into the Atlantic, and not crossing into the Gulf as previously forecast.

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Landfall first Yucatan then Labrador now ... Bermuda! and as a hurricane for good measure

Track forecast models have not distinguished themselves this year.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145635.shtml?cone#contents

 

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It has now become storm Humberto - heavy rain on its fringes for Bermuda and Florida, but later develops as a hurricane for the Bahamas. Track still uncertain after that, with one suggestion that it could even double back to the US coast.

Three competing disturbances out west of Cabo Verde. It looks as if at least one will develop but the question is, do we get three mini-storms or will they merge into one major one? No answers yet.

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It has now become storm Humberto - heavy rain on its fringes for Bahama and Florida, but later develops as a hurricane for the Bermudas . Track still uncertain after that, with one suggestion that it could even double back to the US coast.

Three competing disturbances out west of Cabo Verde. It looks as if at least one will develop but the question is, do we get three mini-storms or will they merge into one major one? No answers yet.

That is just what the Bahamas could do without!  Let’s hope for their sake the track changes. 

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That is just what the Bahamas could do without!  Let’s hope for their sake the track changes. 

 Oops! confused Bahama and Bermuda (the career as a crossword addict at work ... begins with b and ends in a) . Original post corrected.

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It has now become storm Humberto - heavy rain on its fringes for Bermuda and Florida, but later develops as a hurricane for the Bahamas. Track still uncertain after that, with one suggestion that it could even double back to the US coast.

Three competing disturbances out west of Cabo Verde. It looks as if at least one will develop but the question is, do we get three mini-storms or will they merge into one major one? No answers yet.

The competing disturbances have merged (or maybe the weaker ones have faded) so now there is one system with a 60% chance of becoming a storm later this week, and heading for the Caribbean. Also a new disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico to watch while HUmberto becomes a hurricane as it heads out to Bermuda and beyond.

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Bermuda might just be lucky - a slight shift of Humberto northwards puts Bermuda on the fringes of the hurricane. The disturbance not yet named (EDIT - now 97L) heading across towards the Caribbean looks as if it could become a beast in 4 or 5 days time.

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