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Offline DEW  
#561 Posted : 09 September 2019 05:39:59(UTC)
DEW

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After a blip on Wed this week, associated with remnants of hurricane Gabrielle (more of a blip on ECM, less on GFS), all models agree on a good prospect of warm and dry weather lasting into next week for the south, perhaps more short-lived for the north. After that, it's uncertain but we are talking T+240!

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Saint Snow  
#562 Posted : 09 September 2019 08:48:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

After a blip on Wed this week, associated with remnants of hurricane Gabrielle (more of a blip on ECM, less on GFS), all models agree on a good prospect of warm and dry weather lasting into next week for the south, perhaps more short-lived for the north. After that, it's uncertain but we are talking T+240!

 

My CET monthly guess certainly needs a warm spell!!

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

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Offline DEW  
#563 Posted : 10 September 2019 06:30:48(UTC)
DEW

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I'm less confident this morning about that warm spell lasting; GEFS runs are mixed but the Op takes a nose dive before recovering, and this site http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 looks quite chilly in a week's time. Still HP quite close, so dry even in the north, and if cold weather comes off it will involve strong/gale NW winds in the North Sea.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline DEW  
#564 Posted : 11 September 2019 06:13:23(UTC)
DEW

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After a wobb;e yesterday, the models are now forecasting the settled spell to last, with most runs mow showing above average temps for some time and a high pressure cell generally around  the British Isles. Also notably dry with the possible exception of the NW, and just a small chance of some thundery stuff from France in the middle of next week.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline GezM  
#565 Posted : 11 September 2019 08:22:53(UTC)
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It's starting to look like a very dry September is on the cards for some parts of the UK. We've only had light and sporadic rain in St Albans so far this month. The heavier rain forecast on Monday never materialised and there is nothing significant showing on the models either.

Edited by user 11 September 2019 08:25:02(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Nick Gilly  
#566 Posted : 11 September 2019 17:08:23(UTC)
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The 12z GFS is a thing of beauty. HP and serious warmth for days on end...

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#567 Posted : 11 September 2019 19:32:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly Go to Quoted Post

The 12z GFS is a thing of beauty. HP and serious warmth for days on end...

Gavin S.

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Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

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Offline Bolty  
#568 Posted : 11 September 2019 19:59:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly Go to Quoted Post

The 12z GFS is a thing of beauty. HP and serious warmth for days on end...

Looks fantastic! A nice long spell of autumn warmth will do me fine!

Offline Saint Snow  
#569 Posted : 11 September 2019 20:33:09(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Bolty Go to Quoted Post

 

Looks fantastic! A nice long spell of autumn warmth will do me fine!

 

Me too... before a drastic switch to the onset of a bone-chilling winter sometime around late November 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Stormchaser  
#570 Posted : 11 September 2019 21:01:58(UTC)
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These 850s for the final two charts of the 12z ECM are truly extraordinary.

For reference, the days in late Sep 2011 with the highest 850s were both no higher than 15*C (I've looked on the French website and found no instances of the 16*C isotherm across the UK, but it doesn't show the 15*C one so the below charts show the situation the best).

 

I don't suppose anyone's aware of any higher 850s having occurred in the 2nd half of September before?

I'm especially wondering about 1906, which according to a book I own, saw an extreme drought even more severe than that of 1976, with summer temps persisting right the way through to mid-October. The all-time September max temp record of 35.6*C was set on 2nd.

 

The overall pattern of a strong and persistent ridge setting up across Europe actually makes a lot of sense based on an active period for tropical cyclones in the N. Atlantic coinciding with eastward-propagating tropical waves in the Pacific.

Essentially, these drive a lot of northward transport of atmospheric angular momentum, which amplifies the weather patterns in a configuration which favours UK/European ridge placement. 

If the tropical waves were in the Indian Ocean, it'd be a very different story for our temperatures, with the ridge favoured to locate west of the UK & Europe.

 

Of course, we can in no way be sure that temps will become so impressively warm as the models are currently keen on - but I'll be shocked if there isn't at least some appreciably summer-like weather to be enjoyed across a large part of the UK.

All this, following a dry 7 days of weather with temps somewhat summer-like away from the far north this weekend, and then fresher to some extent or other early to mid-next week.

Unless you like it windy and/or wet in September, the outlook could hardly be more satisfying .

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Offline Caz  
#571 Posted : 12 September 2019 04:10:27(UTC)
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There seems to be a recurring theme.  If the current models verify, this will be the fifth consecutive month ending with a heatwave.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline DEW  
#572 Posted : 12 September 2019 05:44:51(UTC)
DEW

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Not all plain sailing. ECM & GFS concur with high pressure and unusual warmth through to end of September, but GEFS has a dip into cool temps for a day or two in the middle of next week before resuming with most runs above average

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline The Beast from the East  
#573 Posted : 12 September 2019 09:26:23(UTC)
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Climate change? Bring it on

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Offline Maunder Minimum  
#574 Posted : 12 September 2019 09:29:22(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East Go to Quoted Post

Climate change? Bring it on

 

Isn't there a tentative association between warm, dry Septembers and decent winters?

Keeping my fingers crossed for some snow and frost in the coming winter season.

EUphiles will stop at nothing to prevent the UK from regaining its lost independence.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#575 Posted : 12 September 2019 09:51:47(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,781
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

These 850s for the final two charts of the 12z ECM are truly extraordinary.

For reference, the days in late Sep 2011 with the highest 850s were both no higher than 15*C (I've looked on the French website and found no instances of the 16*C isotherm across the UK, but it doesn't show the 15*C one so the below charts show the situation the best).

 

I don't suppose anyone's aware of any higher 850s having occurred in the 2nd half of September before?

I'm especially wondering about 1906, which according to a book I own, saw an extreme drought even more severe than that of 1976, with summer temps persisting right the way through to mid-October. The all-time September max temp record of 35.6*C was set on 2nd.

 

The overall pattern of a strong and persistent ridge setting up across Europe actually makes a lot of sense based on an active period for tropical cyclones in the N. Atlantic coinciding with eastward-propagating tropical waves in the Pacific.

Essentially, these drive a lot of northward transport of atmospheric angular momentum, which amplifies the weather patterns in a configuration which favours UK/European ridge placement. 

If the tropical waves were in the Indian Ocean, it'd be a very different story for our temperatures, with the ridge favoured to locate west of the UK & Europe.

 

Of course, we can in no way be sure that temps will become so impressively warm as the models are currently keen on - but I'll be shocked if there isn't at least some appreciably summer-like weather to be enjoyed across a large part of the UK.

All this, following a dry 7 days of weather with temps somewhat summer-like away from the far north this weekend, and then fresher to some extent or other early to mid-next week.

Unless you like it windy and/or wet in September, the outlook could hardly be more satisfying .

Thanks for that excellent info James and thanks also for your descriptions of it.

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Gavin S.

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Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline DEW  
#576 Posted : 13 September 2019 06:27:09(UTC)
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High pressure around for the next ten days or so, notably dry even in Scotland, Warm too (see Stormchaser's post above) though ens generally show a dip around the 17th/18th. After ten days, more uncertainty (surprise!) but particularly so as remnant hurricanes are showing up to upset the models, earlier on ECM, later on GFS

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline DEW  
#577 Posted : 14 September 2019 06:10:34(UTC)
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Good agreement between models this morning for a very dry spell (beyond the next day or two) with HP over or close to the British Isles. Temps on GEFS first above average, dipping around the 19th and then above average again by the 22nd. At the moment we're in the sweet spot on the eastern flank of the high, Norway, even in the south, is forecast sub-zero temps in the mountains and generally 4-6 degrees below average. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

The fun may well start here around the 25th when GFS 0z has the remnants of a hurricane (and not far off hurricane strength) over Cornwall. No guarantees, as it wasn't there on yesterday's run and may disappear by tomorrow,

 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_264_mslp500.png?cb=2 

ECM doesn't stretch that far, but the same storm is shown approaching. GEFS also goes into scramble mode at about that date.

Edited by user 14 September 2019 06:24:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline The Beast from the East  
#578 Posted : 14 September 2019 09:57:33(UTC)
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the track of Humberto is going to be crucial to how long our settled spell lasts

 

"We have some alternative facts for you"

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Offline DEW  
#579 Posted : 15 September 2019 09:48:11(UTC)
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Not much change from yesterday's charts, except that the hurricane remnants appear to be heading more NW-ly and earlier (22 Sep) - then another one a week later. The LPover France affecting S England at the end of the GFS 0z has disappeared on the 06z.

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Downpour  
#580 Posted : 15 September 2019 14:15:21(UTC)
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September is now a fully fledged, weapons grade, maximum velocity summer month. The most lovely month of the year in many a year. Sweet September - the signature month of the English summer!
Chingford

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