Warmth is generally less prevalent in the modelling now compared to a few days ago.
The nights into each of Tue, Wed & Thu look to widely drop down into the 6-8*C range, but the days may climb widely into the 20s to compensate. It depends which model you look at; GFS is wrapping in considerably more cool air from the NE than ECM & UKMO, resulting in daytime max temps generally 1-3*C lower.
ECM continues to advertise a decent blast of warmth Fri-Sat followed by a 'gentle simmer' for Sun-Mon as the Atlantic lows struggle to make inroads. UKMO's going for a similar peak of warmth but shorter-lived with a very progressive Atlantic trough, while GFS is actually less progressive, but doesn't get as much warmth in to begin with.
So, not the clearest of pictures there...!
The following week shows signs of a more 'standard' westerly regime, temps perhaps doing alright overall, though this is assuming that GFS diving troughs down through the UK from the northwest is a consequence of its inability to capture rising-AAM periods beyond about a week's range (due to a systematic low-AAM bias).
Overall, I sense a mid-14s finish to the CET has started to become favoured, unless the final week of the month proves to be a warm one (no clear signals on that yet).
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email
[email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On