I'm less confident this morning about that warm spell lasting; GEFS runs are mixed but the Op takes a nose dive before recovering, and this site http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 looks quite chilly in a week's time. Still HP quite close, so dry even in the north, and if cold weather comes off it will involve strong/gale NW winds in the North Sea.

After a wobb;e yesterday, the models are now forecasting the settled spell to last, with most runs mow showing above average temps for some time and a high pressure cell generally around  the British Isles. Also notably dry with the possible exception of the NW, and just a small chance of some thundery stuff from France in the middle of next week.

It's starting to look like a very dry September is on the cards for some parts of the UK. We've only had light and sporadic rain in St Albans so far this month. The heavier rain forecast on Monday never materialised and there is nothing significant showing on the models either.

The 12z GFS is a thing of beauty. HP and serious warmth for days on end...

The 12z GFS is a thing of beauty. HP and serious warmth for days on end...

The 12z GFS is a thing of beauty. HP and serious warmth for days on end...

Looks fantastic! A nice long spell of autumn warmth will do me fine!

 

Looks fantastic! A nice long spell of autumn warmth will do me fine!

Me too... before a drastic switch to the onset of a bone-chilling winter sometime around late November 

These 850s for the final two charts of the 12z ECM are truly extraordinary.

For reference, the days in late Sep 2011 with the highest 850s were both no higher than 15*C (I've looked on the French website and found no instances of the 16*C isotherm across the UK, but it doesn't show the 15*C one so the below charts show the situation the best).

I don't suppose anyone's aware of any higher 850s having occurred in the 2nd half of September before?

I'm especially wondering about 1906, which according to a book I own, saw an extreme drought even more severe than that of 1976, with summer temps persisting right the way through to mid-October. The all-time September max temp record of 35.6*C was set on 2nd.

The overall pattern of a strong and persistent ridge setting up across Europe actually makes a lot of sense based on an active period for tropical cyclones in the N. Atlantic coinciding with eastward-propagating tropical waves in the Pacific.

Essentially, these drive a lot of northward transport of atmospheric angular momentum, which amplifies the weather patterns in a configuration which favours UK/European ridge placement. 

If the tropical waves were in the Indian Ocean, it'd be a very different story for our temperatures, with the ridge favoured to locate west of the UK & Europe.

Of course, we can in no way be sure that temps will become so impressively warm as the models are currently keen on - but I'll be shocked if there isn't at least some appreciably summer-like weather to be enjoyed across a large part of the UK.

All this, following a dry 7 days of weather with temps somewhat summer-like away from the far north this weekend, and then fresher to some extent or other early to mid-next week.

Unless you like it windy and/or wet in September, the outlook could hardly be more satisfying .

There seems to be a recurring theme.  If the current models verify, this will be the fifth consecutive month ending with a heatwave.  

Not all plain sailing. ECM & GFS concur with high pressure and unusual warmth through to end of September, but GEFS has a dip into cool temps for a day or two in the middle of next week before resuming with most runs above average

Climate change? Bring it on

Climate change? Bring it on

 

Isn't there a tentative association between warm, dry Septembers and decent winters?

Keeping my fingers crossed for some snow and frost in the coming winter season.

 

These 850s for the final two charts of the 12z ECM are truly extraordinary.

For reference, the days in late Sep 2011 with the highest 850s were both no higher than 15*C (I've looked on the French website and found no instances of the 16*C isotherm across the UK, but it doesn't show the 15*C one so the below charts show the situation the best).

 

I don't suppose anyone's aware of any higher 850s having occurred in the 2nd half of September before?

I'm especially wondering about 1906, which according to a book I own, saw an extreme drought even more severe than that of 1976, with summer temps persisting right the way through to mid-October. The all-time September max temp record of 35.6*C was set on 2nd.

 

The overall pattern of a strong and persistent ridge setting up across Europe actually makes a lot of sense based on an active period for tropical cyclones in the N. Atlantic coinciding with eastward-propagating tropical waves in the Pacific.

Essentially, these drive a lot of northward transport of atmospheric angular momentum, which amplifies the weather patterns in a configuration which favours UK/European ridge placement. 

If the tropical waves were in the Indian Ocean, it'd be a very different story for our temperatures, with the ridge favoured to locate west of the UK & Europe.

 

Of course, we can in no way be sure that temps will become so impressively warm as the models are currently keen on - but I'll be shocked if there isn't at least some appreciably summer-like weather to be enjoyed across a large part of the UK.

All this, following a dry 7 days of weather with temps somewhat summer-like away from the far north this weekend, and then fresher to some extent or other early to mid-next week.

Unless you like it windy and/or wet in September, the outlook could hardly be more satisfying .

Thanks for that excellent info James and thanks also for your descriptions of it.

High pressure around for the next ten days or so, notably dry even in Scotland, Warm too (see Stormchaser's post above) though ens generally show a dip around the 17th/18th. After ten days, more uncertainty (surprise!) but particularly so as remnant hurricanes are showing up to upset the models, earlier on ECM, later on GFS

Good agreement between models this morning for a very dry spell (beyond the next day or two) with HP over or close to the British Isles. Temps on GEFS first above average, dipping around the 19th and then above average again by the 22nd. At the moment we're in the sweet spot on the eastern flank of the high, Norway, even in the south, is forecast sub-zero temps in the mountains and generally 4-6 degrees below average. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

The fun may well start here around the 25th when GFS 0z has the remnants of a hurricane (and not far off hurricane strength) over Cornwall. No guarantees, as it wasn't there on yesterday's run and may disappear by tomorrow,

 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_264_mslp500.png?cb=2 

ECM doesn't stretch that far, but the same storm is shown approaching. GEFS also goes into scramble mode at about that date.

the track of Humberto is going to be crucial to how long our settled spell lasts

Not much change from yesterday's charts, except that the hurricane remnants appear to be heading more NW-ly and earlier (22 Sep) - then another one a week later. The LPover France affecting S England at the end of the GFS 0z has disappeared on the 06z.

 

 

Me too... before a drastic switch to the onset of a bone-chilling winter sometime around late November 

When September doth be dry and hot

The coming winter will freeze the lot

Fine and settled this week after disposing of the remnants of the cold front today. HP transferring east so warmer air moving in up to and including next weekend. Thereafter general agreement on a cooler (i.e. near average) and more unsettled spell, though the models now seem to be looking at standard Atlantic fare rather than bringing in Hurricane remnants.

GFS 0z with a beast of a depression at the end of its run on Oct 2, but this probably won't last as long as the 06z