Variable over the next few days with alternating warmth/coolth and HP/LP. Signs of a more settled and warm spell from middle of next week supported by most but not all GEFS runs. But with Dorian and Gabrielle as well as an unnamed storm moving into N Atlantic models may struggle to achieve reliability

Not much change from yesterday though GEFS ens have become more positive about warmth from about the 15th onwards (but the synoptics suggest a day or two earlier, and not so persistent)

After a couple of bursts of rain early next week, generally dry across the UK.

Still the caveat about remnants of hurricanes upsetting the models.

Good job we have you to give us these summarised updates, DEW. Nobody else seems bothered any more. 

Good job we have you to give us these summarised updates, DEW. Nobody else seems bothered any more. 

You won't be saying that in a few months' time if/when there is severe cold spell on the cards!

I think it's just because September isn't usually that interesting a month. Far too early for cold and normally for notable gales, yet the real heat of summer has generally gone. It's certainly my least favourite month of the year weatherwise.

I love the season of misty mellow fruitfulness. The first foggy morning of Sept. with weak sunlight just starting to show up all the myriad spider's webs on the holly hedge next to the house, is always a revalation to me. Maybe the old memory box is cheating me, but it seems to happen a lot less often nowadays compared to in my youth though.

 

You won't be saying that in a few months' time if/when there is severe cold spell on the cards!

I think it's just because September isn't usually that interesting a month. Far too early for cold and normally for notable gales, yet the real heat of summer has generally gone. It's certainly my least favourite month of the year weatherwise.

True for this September. But if any of the hurricanes or their remnants stopped messing around with Newfoundland and headed across the Atlantic ... No sign of that at the moment, they're all being whisked away by the jet stream up to Iceland and northern Norway.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

If this comes off could be some chilly foggy mornings

Also early chilling of Western Russia

I read recently that Moscow had one of its coldest summers on record this year. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

If this comes off could be some chilly foggy mornings

The weather Gods are listening to my pleas it would seem. 

 

True for this September. But if any of the hurricanes or their remnants stopped messing around with Newfoundland and headed across the Atlantic ... No sign of that at the moment, they're all being whisked away by the jet stream up to Iceland and northern Norway.

I'm off to Iceland at the end of next week so watching those hurricane remnants with interest! Currently it's looking like a decent chance of high pressure setting up over Greenland and  bringing some cool weather up there, some early snow around perhaps.

 I read recently that Moscow had one of its coldest summers on record this year. 

Followers of http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 have seen a persistent cold pool over western Russia this summer (down to 6C below average quite often), and I've commented on it 2 or 3 times when the models for the UK were boring.

For Rob, the same site is now showing average day-night temps below zero in Iceland, a little bit this week and rather more next.

Generally an Atlantic influence over the next week or so - a bit of oscillation between warm and cool, with rain around on Monday and Wednesday or thereabouts, after which good chances of a warm spell and especially dry in the south.

But I see that this morning's NHC hurricane tracks show Gabrielle as stronger and more persistent than previously expected

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

arriving as a tropical storm about 150-200 miles off N Ireland on Wed evening. The major models show it there but as a minor feature, so may have adjustments to come.

Yup sadly for my CET guess fairly reasonable signs at the moment for a change from the middle of the month, with HP in charge. A fair bit of warm air gets dragged up too, courtesy of depressions defecting North Eastwards the from the HP cell. ECM singing from the same hymn sheet.

Not a done deal of course at that range and a slight change to intensity or track of the tropical features could have a dramatic influence on our weather.

Proper Indian summer possible. I'm trying to avoid starting up the central heating again for as long as I can! Hope the pilot light is still on!

Proper Indian summer possible. I'm trying to avoid starting up the central heating again for as long as I can! Hope the pilot light is still on!

 

Getting close this weekend here, and we’re in London. I’ve just started a thread.

Op doing its best to get noticed this morning; brings temperatures in the high twenties to the S!

Op doing its best to get noticed this morning; brings temperatures in the high twenties to the S!

What I notice more than the high temps on that chart is the nearly complete absence of rainfall after the next few days.

After a blip on Wed this week, associated with remnants of hurricane Gabrielle (more of a blip on ECM, less on GFS), all models agree on a good prospect of warm and dry weather lasting into next week for the south, perhaps more short-lived for the north. After that, it's uncertain but we are talking T+240!

After a blip on Wed this week, associated with remnants of hurricane Gabrielle (more of a blip on ECM, less on GFS), all models agree on a good prospect of warm and dry weather lasting into next week for the south, perhaps more short-lived for the north. After that, it's uncertain but we are talking T+240!

My CET monthly guess certainly needs a warm spell!!