Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 August 2019 13:01:46

 


 


Hello folks,


Here's the weather forecast for the week ahead (including the traditional Written Thoughts)


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php


An Autumnal start to Autumn...


Talking of Autumn we've released the GWV Autumn 2019 Forecast today. You can have a watch here:


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2019-weather-forecast.php


Tomorrow, as is tradition for first Sunday in September - we've got the First Winter 2019/20 update coming up!



Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen!


EDIT: Here's the first Winter 2019/20 Update


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2019-20-weather-forecast.php


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
johncs2016
31 August 2019 13:42:05
Thanks Gav.

It would just be like the thing if this coming autumn ended up being high pressure dominated (I obviously don't want to give too much away here about your autumn forecast, to those who haven't yet seen it) since we have just come to the end of what has been a very wet summer here (with this month being the wettest month of this summer).

If that was to happen, we would then no doubt be asking the question of where on earth, this high pressure was during this summer which was the very period of time when we could have done with that high pressure being around.

On the other hand, I quite like the idea that high pressure during the autumn (or the Fall, as our friends on the other side of the Pond would call it) provides us with our best chance of possibly getting our first official air frost of the season around October, so I shall look forward to seeing whether or not, that ends up happening.

I also don't the autumn to get too cold too quickly as I would like there to be plenty of cold weather left for us to enjoy during the coming winter and in the age of climate change and global warming, there isn't as much cold weather around nowadays as what there used to be. Because of that, I will be happy enough with a slightly warmer than average autumn overall, as long as we don't end up being stuck back in the summer as a result, in terms of our weather.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
ARTzeman
31 August 2019 15:50:18

Thank you, Gavin.  Some 8.oc and 9.0c Still kkepe a frost away for now.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
31 August 2019 15:59:13
An early start to winter this year IMO, what happens after Christmas is another matter.
Solar Cycles
31 August 2019 17:17:47

Originally Posted by: four 

An early start to winter this year IMO, what happens after Christmas is another matter.

Im going for a front loaded affair this winter, how severe/cold is another matter but probably not that cold nor severe this year.

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
01 September 2019 12:12:21

Thanks Gavin.  Always useful in planning my activities for the week ahead.


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Bertwhistle
01 September 2019 13:17:07

Thanks for the synopsis Gav; I suppose we had to get the autumn feel at some point soon.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 September 2019 19:18:13

^^^^^


Thanks guys! 


Have released the first Winter 2019/20 update today which you can watch/read here:


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2019-20-weather-forecast.php


The countdown to another Winter has begun! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
jhall
01 September 2019 21:07:16

Thanks, Gav. Can you tell us which five years it was that had May NAOs of less than -1.5? If they turn out to include all of 1962, 1978 and 2009, then I'll start to get excited. :)


Cranleigh, Surrey
some faraway beach
02 September 2019 08:57:56

1968, 1980, 1990, 2008 and 2017.


https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/


A bit less exciting now, eh?!


1962 was -0.10, 1978 was -1.05 and 2009 was +1.68 !!


 


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
jhall
02 September 2019 09:58:24

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


1968, 1980, 1990, 2008 and 2017.


https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/


A bit less exciting now, eh?!


1962 was -0.10, 1978 was -1.05 and 2009 was +1.68 !!


 



Thanks. Oh well, it was nice to dream. :)


ISTR that winter 1968-9 was pretty good, 1991 and 2009 had notable February snowfalls, and of course 2018 had the Beast from the East. Based on that, one might - not very scientifically - think that if there's notable cold during the coming winter it's more likely to be at the back end.


Cranleigh, Surrey
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