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Offline Gavin P  
#1 Posted : 31 August 2019 13:01:46(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,195
Man
United Kingdom

 


 


Hello folks,


Here's the weather forecast for the week ahead (including the traditional Written Thoughts)


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php


An Autumnal start to Autumn...


Talking of Autumn we've released the GWV Autumn 2019 Forecast today. You can have a watch here:


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2019-weather-forecast.php


Tomorrow, as is tradition for first Sunday in September - we've got the First Winter 2019/20 update coming up!



Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen!


EDIT: Here's the first Winter 2019/20 Update


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2019-20-weather-forecast.php

Edited by user 01 September 2019 19:19:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

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Offline johncs2016  
#2 Posted : 31 August 2019 13:42:05(UTC)
johncs2016

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Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,322
Man
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Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Thanks Gav.

It would just be like the thing if this coming autumn ended up being high pressure dominated (I obviously don't want to give too much away here about your autumn forecast, to those who haven't yet seen it) since we have just come to the end of what has been a very wet summer here (with this month being the wettest month of this summer).

If that was to happen, we would then no doubt be asking the question of where on earth, this high pressure was during this summer which was the very period of time when we could have done with that high pressure being around.

On the other hand, I quite like the idea that high pressure during the autumn (or the Fall, as our friends on the other side of the Pond would call it) provides us with our best chance of possibly getting our first official air frost of the season around October, so I shall look forward to seeing whether or not, that ends up happening.

I also don't the autumn to get too cold too quickly as I would like there to be plenty of cold weather left for us to enjoy during the coming winter and in the age of climate change and global warming, there isn't as much cold weather around nowadays as what there used to be. Because of that, I will be happy enough with a slightly warmer than average autumn overall, as long as we don't end up being stuck back in the summer as a result, in terms of our weather.
Located in the most boring part of the UK when it comes to our weather where hardly anything ever happens which is even remotely interesting in terms of our weather (other than yet more constant grey skies), and with the more interesting weather usually always occurring elsewhere in the UK apart from here.
Offline ARTzeman  
#3 Posted : 31 August 2019 15:50:18(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thank you, Gavin.  Some 8.oc and 9.0c Still kkepe a frost away for now.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline four  
#4 Posted : 31 August 2019 15:59:13(UTC)
four

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Posts: 19,444
Location: N.Y.Moors

An early start to winter this year IMO, what happens after Christmas is another matter.
Offline Solar Cycles  
#5 Posted : 31 August 2019 17:17:47(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: four Go to Quoted Post
An early start to winter this year IMO, what happens after Christmas is another matter.
Im going for a front loaded affair this winter, how severe/cold is another matter but probably not that cold nor severe this year.

Offline AJ*  
#6 Posted : 01 September 2019 12:12:21(UTC)
AJ*

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 854
Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Thanks Gavin.  Always useful in planning my activities for the week ahead.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#7 Posted : 01 September 2019 13:17:07(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,761
Location: Central Southern England

Thanks for the synopsis Gav; I suppose we had to get the autumn feel at some point soon.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake!
Offline Gavin P  
#8 Posted : 01 September 2019 19:18:13(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,195
Man
United Kingdom

^^^^^


Thanks guys! 


Have released the first Winter 2019/20 update today which you can watch/read here:


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2019-20-weather-forecast.php


The countdown to another Winter has begun! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/
Offline jhall  
#9 Posted : 01 September 2019 21:07:16(UTC)
jhall

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 549

Thanks, Gav. Can you tell us which five years it was that had May NAOs of less than -1.5? If they turn out to include all of 1962, 1978 and 2009, then I'll start to get excited. :)

Cranleigh, Surrey
Offline some faraway beach  
#10 Posted : 02 September 2019 08:57:56(UTC)
some faraway beach

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/09/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,101
Location: 2 miles west of Taunton. 32 m asl

1968, 1980, 1990, 2008 and 2017.


https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/


A bit less exciting now, eh?!


1962 was -0.10, 1978 was -1.05 and 2009 was +1.68 !!


 

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Offline jhall  
#11 Posted : 02 September 2019 09:58:24(UTC)
jhall

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 549

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach Go to Quoted Post


1968, 1980, 1990, 2008 and 2017.


https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/


A bit less exciting now, eh?!


1962 was -0.10, 1978 was -1.05 and 2009 was +1.68 !!


 



Thanks. Oh well, it was nice to dream. :)


ISTR that winter 1968-9 was pretty good, 1991 and 2009 had notable February snowfalls, and of course 2018 had the Beast from the East. Based on that, one might - not very scientifically - think that if there's notable cold during the coming winter it's more likely to be at the back end.

Cranleigh, Surrey
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