Off-topic, but if one goes by the meteorogical definitions of when each season starts and ends, the meteorogical summer starts on 1st June and ends on 31st August. At least that is the definition that the Met Office seem to follow. I know that the astronomical summer goes on until 21st September or thenabouts.

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Correct, I think we have to consider national variations ie s/e v n/w To be honest September here is usually a very reasonable month I think the met give much more weight to warm spells in October and November even though September is a Autumn month so technically could be called an Indian type spell. As per wicker.

 

 

*** Pedant Alert * ** technically a spell of unusually warm weather after summer is over, thus in October rather than September. But I suppose that anything warm in Scotland in September is unusual especially in Aberdeen 

A nice variety of names quoted in Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer#Similar_phenomena - I like the Irish 'little autumn of the geese'. And of course in November it has to be the traditional 'St Martin's summer', not the american import of 'Indian summer'

 

*** Pedant Alert * ** technically a spell of unusually warm weather after summer is over, thus in October rather than September. But I suppose that anything warm in Scotland in September is unusual especially in Aberdeen 

A nice variety of names quoted in Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer#Similar_phenomena - I like the Irish 'little autumn of the geese'. And of course in November it has to be the traditional 'St Martin's summer', not the american import of 'Indian summer'

I've also been told an Indian summer can only happen after the first widespread frost. Personally I'm not a stickler with these things because they are informal terms with various definitions. If a journalist asks me in mid September if I am prepared to refer to a very warm spell of weather as an Indian summer I am likely to say yes. 

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the ECM runs are getting more and more settled hopefully it's onto something. 

 

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After a cool week, GEFS brings back a set of runs with mostly normal temps from 4/5/Sep. Beyond that, the interest switches to watching the effect of the reviving hurricane season e.g. GFS 0z has a tropical storm (presumably Erin) in mid-Atlantic on Sunday 8th pumping up warm air over the UK

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Watching (see yesterday's post) rather than confirming - that mid-Atlantic storm no longer features.

The best that can be said for this morning's runs is that they show a generally westerly pattern, sometimes fine and warm, sometimes LP (usually from the NW) passing through. Drier in the south than the north. Keep watching!

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GFS looking very dry  for the South.  ECM also very settled and could get very warm for the south.

 

 

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GFS looking very dry  for the South.  ECM also very settled and could get very warm for the south.

 

I saw that chart, too. Dry, yes, but if you are pinning your hopes on very warm (which I know is your preferred option) you need to back ECM not GEFS.

It occurs to me that at least in this part of the world, the harvest must have been the easiest for years. Northerners may differ.

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I saw that chart, too. Dry, yes, but if you are pinning your hopes on very warm (which I know is your preferred option) you need to back ECM not GEFS.

It occurs to me that at least in this part of the world, the harvest must have been the easiest for years. Northerners may differ.

 

I think the Met Office will have to change their unsettled outlook soon as anywhere south of say Manchester looks mainly dry for the foreseeable to me. 

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It occurs to me that at least in this part of the world, the harvest must have been the easiest for years. Northerners may differ.

 

OT, but my dad farms in Surrey and I wouldn't describe this year as an easy harvest year. The start of August was poor and I've seen plenty of flat cereals around this year. And, in any case, surely last year was the easiest harvest year for decades in terms of dry weather to gather in the crops. But like you say, up here in the north it's been very stop/start.

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I saw that chart, too. Dry, yes, but if you are pinning your hopes on very warm (which I know is your preferred option) you need to back ECM not GEFS.

It occurs to me that at least in this part of the world, the harvest must have been the easiest for years. Northerners may differ.

Yes, I think the will be quite notable regional differences this year: https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/bad-weather-could-hit-north-east-farmers-harvests/

Some large rainfall totals in the coming days in parts of the NW won’t help them either. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_81_18.png 

While parts of the NW will have had up to 4” of rain by Sunday parts of the SE will have seen none.

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OT, but my dad farms in Surrey and I wouldn't describe this year as an easy harvest year. The start of August was poor and I've seen plenty of flat cereals around this year. And, in any case, surely last year was the easiest harvest year for decades in terms of dry weather to gather in the crops. But like you say, up here in the north it's been very stop/start.

We've had around d 40mm of rain down here this August and that's very much around the average mark. Field's & crops are looking very dry in the local countryside.

 

I saw that chart, too. Dry, yes, but if you are pinning your hopes on very warm (which I know is your preferred option) you need to back ECM not GEFS.

It occurs to me that at least in this part of the world, the harvest must have been the easiest for years. Northerners may differ.

In Scotland it was close to disastrous for a while but they will have been making progress again recently.
Harvest is more of a September thing anyway where spring barley is the main crop.(widely grown in Eastern Scotland)

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Fine and settled for the coming week, but GFS 0z has revived the idea (which had been there but  went missing for a few days) of a cool depression over the SE of Britain from Sat/Sun 7/8 Sep with a spell of easterlies to follow. This time GFS is backed up by ECM and GEFS, the latter showing widespread rain for that weekend.

Meanwhile the remnants of Dorian are showing up on the charts at about this time, but staying close to New England/Canada.

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That depression referred to yesterday much less of a feature, now less well defined and further east over Europe. High pressure still close by for the forecastable future, but tending to keep out to the west - so mainly dry, but winds from NW rather cool.

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Still continuing the theme of HP out to the west as main influence on our weather, so dry generally (perhaps a bit more rain in the NW) and cool as the air will be coming from N Atlantic. Closest pass of LP around the middle of the coming week

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to get taken over by the Jet Stream and to be adding some extra oomph to a depression over Iceland around Tue 10th but no great effect on UK weather. Further off (and it's a long way off) the next hurricane remnants are in mid Atlantic on Sun 15th. 

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GFS 0z has Hp to the west of the UK for the next week or so, alternating mild westerlies with cool northwesterlies. The depression boosted by Hurricane Dorian now comes closer than the original forecast which was centred on Iceland and on Wed 11th is by the Western Isles. ECM 0z keeps this depression on its original track past Iceland to the Norwegian Sea.

The distant GFS run develops quite a deep depression over SE England on Sun 15th with cold Northeasterlies to follow, but the ens runs contradict this - after a spell with below average temps and intermittent rain, quite a lot of members are showing a warm-up at this time.

You pays your money and you takes your choice!

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ECM really turning up the heat this morning,  could we be heading towards a mid September heatwave?

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ECM really turning up the heat this morning,  could we be heading towards a mid September heatwave?

The GFS ensembles look rather cool, mostly below average but with some warmer outliers especially later in the run.

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The GFS ensembles look rather cool, mostly below average but with some warmer outliers especially later in the run.

 

Yes very different something has to give soon.

 

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