Bertwhistle
23 August 2019 16:25:54

Originally Posted by: howham 


 


Of course, the 2010/11 spell started on 24 November here so we had a full week of proper snowy weather in autumn...


Took me 3 hours to get home that day.  Normally took 40 minutes but heavy snow started as people were leaving work.



I suppose the trouble now is, we live so far from where we work. I was reading some diary accounts in conjunction with Kelly's Directory and some land & business audits from the Meon Valley in Hampshire from the 1800s and early 1900s. The valley was incredibly self-equipped, with roles widely shared within the valley community, the postman also being the bicycle repair man and a potato farmer. We've (d)evolved to be dependent on unnecessaries like cars, mobiles, etc. to the extend that it's possibly worse living with the weather now.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2019 19:11:54

Anyone for an old-fashioned Victorian Christmas? From Kilvert's Diary, Christmas Day 1870, at the Clyro vicarage near Hereford.


I sat down in my bath upon a sheet of thick ice which broke in the middle into large pieces whilst sharp points and jagged edges stuck all round the sides of the tub like chevaux de frise, not particularly comforting to the naked thighs and loins, for the keen ice cut like broken glass....I had to collect the floating pieces of ice and pile them on a chair before I could use the sponge, and then I had to thaw the sponge in my hands for it was a mass of ice.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
some faraway beach
23 August 2019 22:29:39

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


As far as I've come to understand it, the most efficient transport of anomalous heat to the mid then upper stratosphere occurs when there's a single, large polar vortex, on the periphery of which is a 'surf zone' that aids the upward transport. So if you have a vortex that keeps stretching and splitting in the lower levels especially, as we've had in many recent winters, it takes a lot more effort from the troposphere to bring about a major SSW.


 



 


Fascinating. If that's true, it would explain the connection between 'winter is over' posts and subsequent outbreaks of wintry weather. It may not just be Sod's law causing this; there are some genuine physical laws in place too.


Basically the more 'winter is over' posts which appear on the model output thread, the greater the chances of a sudden stratospheric warming actually taking place, along with the consequent possibility of a severe spell.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
KevBrads1
04 September 2019 06:10:34

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


As a slight aside does anyone else here always find the most exciting part of the "winter" to be November (hence the "") and December? Even if it snows in Jan, Feb or Mar the reality never matches the expectation as the days shorten and Xmas approaches.  



I prefer a winter, where the wintry spells are spread across the winter, or the concentrate of winter spells are post Christmas. 


Winter 2010-11 was really late November-December 2010, after early January it was virtually all over for most places. It was a long haul out of winter from then. 


That's why I prefer winters such as 2009-10 and 1995-96. 


 


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Saint Snow
04 September 2019 09:10:47

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


I prefer a winter, where the wintry spells are spread across the winter, or the concentrate of winter spells are post Christmas. 


Winter 2010-11 was really late November-December 2010, after early January it was virtually all over for most places. It was a long haul out of winter from then. 


That's why I prefer winters such as 2009-10 and 1995-96. 


 



 


If I get cold & snow in the last 3 weeks of a December, I can forgive Jan & Feb for any kind of weather they bring.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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picturesareme
04 September 2019 11:53:35
There is fair bit of sulphur in the stratosphere at rhw moment thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions.

What if any effect this has on global weather patterns remains to be seen.
richardabdn
04 September 2019 17:52:00

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Anyone for an old-fashioned Victorian Christmas? From Kilvert's Diary, Christmas Day 1870, at the Clyro vicarage near Hereford.


I sat down in my bath upon a sheet of thick ice which broke in the middle into large pieces whilst sharp points and jagged edges stuck all round the sides of the tub like chevaux de frise, not particularly comforting to the naked thighs and loins, for the keen ice cut like broken glass....I had to collect the floating pieces of ice and pile them on a chair before I could use the sponge, and then I had to thaw the sponge in my hands for it was a mass of ice.



Probably more like one of these Victorian Christmases:


1883:

Quote:


One of the traditional characteristics of Christmas Day, without which to some people it appears to lose much of its charm, is a coating on the ground of virgin snow, a bright, clear, crisp atmosphere, the thermometer below freezing point, giving rise to visions of curling and skating and other seasonable outdoor recreations. This Christmas was the direct antithesis of such a conception, for the sun shone out in cloudless splendour and the air was genial and warm. Overcoats and wraps of all kinds were dispensed with and the only thing to remind people that the “festive season” was upon them was the magnificent displays in the shop windows which seem to excel all previous efforts of decorative skill. The high temperature that prevailed outside was indeed abnormal and the balmy atmosphere was more like the first warm breath of spring than that which is associated with mid-winter.  While the weather, however, belied its traditional character there is no doubt that the bright sunshine and clear sky served greatly to enhance the enjoyment of the gaily dressed crowds who perambulated the streets in the best of humour, giving the friendly greetings of a Christmas Day.



1890:

Quote:


To holiday-makers the festival was to a certain extent spoilt by disagreeable weather. The hard frost which prevailed overnight gave place early in the day to a heavy rain, which continued to fall almost without intermission throughout the forenoon, and as the streets were thereby rendered very wet and muddy, extremely few people ventured out.


1893:

Quote:


Anything more unlike the traditional way in which Christmas is ushered in upon us could not have been conceived than the clouded heavens and the pitiless pelting rain which were experienced in the period separating Christmas eve and Christmas morning. With this joyous season are associated clear, bright, star-spangled evening skies, a “nipping and an eager air” of frost, the crisp sound made by the foot on the hardened scattering of snow which hides the dark earth or the cold stones below. As the morning advanced, however, and early worshippers wended their way to the Episcopal Churches the condition of the weather improved; the sun rose amid disappearing clouds, and gradually the air cleared and brightened, the sun shone forth and the misery of the gloomy night was forgotten.


1894:

Quote:


Associated with the traditional Christmas is the crisp, clear, eager air, nipping with keen frost, snow-clad landscapes, and the large falling flakes of the frozen crystals. Scarcely any of these were present on the Christmas of 1894, except that it might be a slight touch of a colder atmosphere than that to which we have become accustomed during an exceptionally mild December. The early morning was clear and starry, and the bespangled heavens were in keeping with the season. In the forenoon a dull haze hung over the city which had rather a depressing effect; but after the violent storm of Saturday one was glad at least that the elements were at peace.


Accounts taken from the local paper, The Aberdeen Journal. Very few White Christmas during the late Victorian period at least.


 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
Solar Cycles
04 September 2019 22:44:33

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


I prefer a winter, where the wintry spells are spread across the winter, or the concentrate of winter spells are post Christmas. 


Winter 2010-11 was really late November-December 2010, after early January it was virtually all over for most places. It was a long haul out of winter from then. 


That's why I prefer winters such as 2009-10 and 1995-96. 


 


09/10 was our best winter since 78/79. 1995/96 was more notable for the snow in February, around here we had depths in excess of 18”.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 September 2019 14:47:00

There seems to be an abundance of berries in the hedgerows this year.  Mr Foggitt would have said this is to provide food for wildlife during the harsh winter, which is to come. We’ll see!


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Solar Cycles
06 September 2019 15:03:39
Looking at one piece of the puzzle and the QBO descending into its easterly phase as we head into winter would suggest any prospects of colder conditions would occur during the second half of the season..... Luckily that’s just one bit part, and if it were that easy then Gav P would’ve nailed each winter with ease.😎
Chunky Pea
06 September 2019 15:50:24

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Looking at one piece of the puzzle and the QBO descending into its easterly phase as we head into winter would suggest any prospects of colder conditions would occur during the second half of the season..... Luckily that’s just one bit part, and if it were that easy then Gav P would’ve nailed each winter with ease.😎


 


Long-range forecasters always and predictably cite the 2nd half of the season as seeing the greatest potential for cold, which statistically, is more likely to have cold snaps occurring anyway. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


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Solar Cycles
06 September 2019 23:01:56

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


 


Long-range forecasters always and predictably cite the 2nd half of the season as seeing the greatest potential for cold, which statistically, is more likely to have cold snaps occurring anyway. 


Indeed CP...... Front loaded winters appear to be as rare as hens teeth.

Gavin D
07 September 2019 08:20:05

Tropical Tidbits CanSIPS model suggests nothing overly cold over winter as a whole and rather wet for some parts of mainland Europe




 


 


tallyho_83
09 September 2019 00:08:03
Should be in Media But wanted to share this, seeing as it's winter related:

Looks like it's all kicking off already!? :P

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-forecast-britain-braced-for-one-of-coldest-winters-in-30-years-as-beast-from-the-east-set-a4231541.html 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 September 2019 05:53:33

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Should be in Media But wanted to share this, seeing as it's winter related:

Looks like it's all kicking off already!? :P

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-forecast-britain-braced-for-one-of-coldest-winters-in-30-years-as-beast-from-the-east-set-a4231541.html


From the text below the headline


"It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years." Only the seventh? Not exactly snowmageddon yet.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
JACKO4EVER
09 September 2019 16:43:00

Originally Posted by: DEW 


">https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-forecast-britain-braced-for-one-of-coldest-winters-in-30-years-as-beast-from-the-east-set-a4231541.html


From the text below the headline


"It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years." Only the seventh? Not exactly snowmageddon yet.



quite, and yet more long range clap trap spouted by an on the whole ignorant media. “Seventh coldest in last 30 years,,,,,,,, blah blah blah”. Wow, I’m shaking in my boots, we might even get to see a frost or two 

Saint Snow
09 September 2019 16:58:01

Originally Posted by: DEW 


">https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-forecast-britain-braced-for-one-of-coldest-winters-in-30-years-as-beast-from-the-east-set-a4231541.html


From the text below the headline


"It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years." Only the seventh? Not exactly snowmageddon yet.



 


I can only think of - at a push - 4 winters in the last 30 years I'd be happy to repeat:


00/01


09/10


10/11


12/13


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
09 September 2019 17:00:57

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Tropical Tidbits CanSIPS model suggests nothing overly cold over winter as a whole and rather wet for some parts of mainland Europe




 


 




 


Normally a wet Europe would suggest southerly-tracking lows, so blocking to our north. That would generally give us good winter weather. But those charts are all a bit 'meh' for us.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
tallyho_83
10 September 2019 01:01:17

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


Normally a wet Europe would suggest southerly-tracking lows, so blocking to our north. That would generally give us good winter weather. But those charts are all a bit 'meh' for us.



Why is it that every URL or external link i click on takes me to this page????


Forum settings??


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twousers/forum-settings.aspx


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Broadmayne Blizzard
10 September 2019 06:20:27

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


 


 


I get that but by just saying each year nothing interesting is going to happen almost defeats the object of enjoying discussion - the same people were saying the same thing in 2009 & look what happened... 


I think the weather over the last decade but also now increasingly over the last 2-3 years has become so adverse to the norm with more & more focus on extremes then its only a matter of time that the UK hits the jackpot - of course it was only a matter of time anyway but those odds are greatly reduced based on the increased incidence of blocked flows...


Anyway lets see what happens with the Stratospheric jet to the midpoint of Sept where the bandwidth opens out a lot more...



Totally agree with you on this one Steve. I always thought climate change would lead to extremes at both ends of the scale weatherwise. Not just heat and drought but cold and snow as well.  Worth noting on this general theme that 2010 as a year had 28  daysw the daily CET below freezing. One only 1963 and 1947 have had more in the last 100 years. Also there are only three additional years that have higher totals of sub freezing days going all the way back to 1772!


Formerly Blizzard of 78
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