But the fascination is watching which development, if any of them, comes about

Yes, you’re right but I just wanted to emphasise the next few days of fine weather. 

The 00z ECM has things a little more unsettled at days 4-5 but better again by day 7. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_168_1.png 

---

Fresher air expected as early as Monday now confirmed by the met office heatwave alert some eastern parts will remain very warm though

Fresher air expected as early as Monday now confirmed by the met office heatwave alert some eastern parts will remain very warm though

The fax charts show a 'cooler' pool of upper air sat over England and Wales on Monday in tandem with a decaying front. Then slight cooler air pushing south east on Tuesday.

Not clear what impact that will have on surface temperatures yet. Two different forecast sources indicate highs of 26C and 30C for St Albans on Monday. But then show 29C and 31C on Tuesday. I'm sure these will change as we get closer to the time. 

---

 

But the fascination is watching which development, if any of them, comes about

Five days of warm/hot weather over a bank holiday weekend is plenty fascinating enough for most TBH. 

---

 The fax charts show a 'cooler' pool of upper air sat over England and Wales on Monday in tandem with a decaying front. Then slight cooler air pushing south east on Tuesday.

You'd normally expect the situation shown on the fax charts coupled with the sharp decline in temp forecast for Wednesday-ish  to produce some juicy thunderstorms - but none of the models or forecasts seem to be buying into this (just one of the ens runs for e.g. Brighton has a rainfall spike this week).

The heat wave is dead by next weekend with cool NW air (GFS) even assisted by the remnants of a hurricane (ECM) though there is a recovery later. A few ens runs manage to keep the warmth going, especially in the south but the majority are below average. 

---

06z GFS ENS: all members showing real heat in the south still on Tuesday evening, except P17; all others offering 30-31C. Excellent.

---

Interesting how upper air temperatures always seem to fall off a cliff these days at the end of a hot spell. The ENS models always show a gradual cool off for days before and then change closer to the time.

---

Brief re-emergence of HP on Fri/Sat, with a re-load of heat, most noticeable in the SE, after which HP gradually weakens. End of GFS run (8/9 Sep) looking stormy but on the dry side until then, except the far North

---

Stormy but on the dry side - isn't that a contradiction in terms?

---

tell that to those who have experienced a dry dust or sand 'storm'

---

Stormy but on the dry side - isn't that a contradiction in terms?

Original post would be improved by a comma after 'stormy' but i'm sure you were capable of spotting that

---

Stormy but on the dry side - isn't that a contradiction in terms?

Petty.

---

GFS and ECM 12z ops both suggesting a possible re-build of pressure from the west once the more unsettled spell during the second half of the coming week has passed. Let's hope this theme is maintained in tomorrow's runs.

---

Indian summers are Normal these days.

---

GFS and ECM 12z ops both suggesting a possible re-build of pressure from the west once the more unsettled spell during the second half of the coming week has passed. Let's hope this theme is maintained in tomorrow's runs.

The re-build of pressure tending to sit out to the west over the length of the run, sometimes bulging towards us with warmth, sometimes withdrawing and allowing colder and windier weather from the north. An interestingly marginal situation for watching, though GEFS being pessimistic with temps generally below average after next weekend.

---

Stormy but on the dry side - isn't that a contradiction in terms?

Did you miss the words ‘until then’ that followed ‘on the dry side’?  

---

 

Indian summers are Normal these days.

Except that they don’t happen until October, not in September

---

That blob of well-below-average temps around the Urals is back; they must be classifying this as the worst summer in decades. Can it affect our weather, or is it just a case of better here and worse there, and vice versa? 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

The same site suggesting a lot of rain for the UK in week 2

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

---

 

 

Except that they don’t happen until October, not in September

Going by my own past experience they can happen in either of those two months, more commonly in September rather than October at least as far as my own neck of the woods is concerned. I have heard my own folks speaking many times about Indian summers in September, and like many other parts of the UK we have had our fair share of notably warm/very warm and sunny September spells going back to the early 1990s.

---

 

Going by my own past experience they can happen in either of those two months, more commonly in September rather than October at least as far as my own neck of the woods is concerned. I have heard my own folks speaking many times about Indian summers in September, and like many other parts of the UK we have had our fair share of notably warm/very warm and sunny September spells going back to the early 1990s.

*** Pedant Alert * ** technically a spell of unusually warm weather after summer is over, thus in October rather than September. But I suppose that anything warm in Scotland in September is unusual especially in Aberdeen 

A nice variety of names quoted in Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer#Similar_phenomena - I like the Irish 'little autumn of the geese'. And of course in November it has to be the traditional 'St Martin's summer', not the american import of 'Indian summer'

---