It’s the operational run because it’s the one with the unadjusted opening data and has the highest resolution.

As you imply the ensemble mean is as important but as you get more than a few days out you have to look at the clusters because the mean can conceal sharply different evolutions.

By members, I mean clustering, trends, deviation etc; not the mean- that at best only has a mathematical significance on its own. On the Control- does it not also have unadjusted opening data?

Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Hope that helps

 

By members, I mean clustering, trends, deviation etc; not the mean- that at best only has a mathematical significance on its own. On the Control- does it not also have unadjusted opening data?

Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Hope that helps

 

 

Am I right in saying as well that whenever a new version of the GFS model comes out every year after possibly spending some time as the parallel run, it then takes over as the new operational run with the old operational run then becoming the control run?

That would probably make sense as each new version of any given model run will usually always be at a higher resolution than the previous one.

To my tired but experienced eyes, the UK still seem to somehow manage to find itself under any kind of trough-like set ups no matter what with the Continent and even the Atlantic hogging high pressure.

Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Hope that helps

 

 

Thanks. I still wonder which one outperforms the other- one would think the higher res model, but I suppose that's not necessarily so. I think my original interest was that the Op seems to be at either edge of the range quite often, with big differences between runs as far as 10 or more days out. Since that time-frame is unreliable anyway, I wonder what subtle changes over a 6-hour period could be extrapolated enough to force it to undo itself between successive runs.

A warm up looks plausible but I'm still not entirely convinced about a heatwave. The Operational was at the warmer end of the suite and an outlier for a couple of days. 

Dry and sunny would do me, don't care if it maxes at 70f 

A warm up looks plausible but I'm still not entirely convinced about a heatwave. The Operational was at the warmer end of the suite and an outlier for a couple of days. 

I'm with you on this. Certainly ens runs agree on it being pleasantly warm over the BH weekend. After that you can certainly pick runs which are warm or very warm, but the op, control and mean remain resolutely close to the seasonal average. But HP sticks around, close to the south especially, so no great amounts of rainfall.

ECM ENS offers another build up of warmth in its later stages, with 850> 10°C and the 564 dam line over C England.

Dry and sunny would do me, don't care if it maxes at 70f 

Same here!

GFS is having a bit of a turn with its 12z run . . .



This is at 192 hrs which puts it on BH Mon but is on its own with that thinking and is only one run, etc, etc.

GFS is having a bit of a turn with its 12z run . . .



This is at 192 hrs which puts it on BH Mon but is on its own with that thinking and is only one run, etc, etc.

Thats a deep low for August widespread gales ....let’s hope GFS is having a laugh spoiling the BH.

 

Thats a deep low for August widespread gales ....let’s hope GFS is having a laugh spoiling the BH.

The other models which show a similiar feature all have it further north (and it is also an outlier in its own suite). Unlikely but worth watching all the same I guess.

 

Thats a deep low for August widespread gales ....let’s hope GFS is having a laugh spoiling the BH.

can rain all it wants on the Monday - that’s going home day. B/H weekend looking pretty decent so far. 

Bit of inverse (perverse?) cherry picking by Ian there

Synoptics for the next week or so look mostly dry and warm, though HP always inclined to stand off to the west, and hence the possibility of northerlies flirting with the east coast from time to time. This http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 indicates that such northerlies will provide a sharp contrast in Europe (esp week 2) compared to the earlier heat wave.

Ensembles showing a warm BH and after that a considerable scramble - could go either way. But no indication of prolonged heavy rainfall though as usual the NW gets more than the SE

We're off again!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=Inverness#Inverness

We're off again!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=Inverness#Inverness

 

Fasten those seatbelts, kids!!

Looking at the ECM weeklies for the next 4 weeks this week and next week sees temps a bit above average overall with below average rain away from the NW 

Week 1                                                      Week 2

Week 3

The start of autumn looks very unsettled UK wide with above average rainfall and temps fairly close to average overall

Week 4

A drier picture nationally with below average rainfall with temps around average

Whisper it quietly folks but we could be on the verge of a decent little heatwave.  We could be touching 30c for 5 days in a row in the south from Saturday