Synoptics look good for BH weekend with HP at least to start with, and a greater number of above seasonal average temps in the ens runs. Sporadic rainfalli n some ens so perhaps a shower or two

For the nearer future, this weekend's depression following a track off NW Scotland; windy but not much rain in the NW, rather more in the south presumably from the fronts shown dragging their heels in the fax chart late Friday/early Sat

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

 

Yes, there's a recurring signal in increasing GFS ENS members for a warm-up from about 23rd. Many members keep it going till the end of the run but it might be concerning that both the Op and Control drop again after Sunday.

Although the Friday, Saturday and Sunday of the bank hol are the key days. The Monday is travelling home day so I suspect most would take a rainy day there! 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Stunning ECM means this morning from 144h to 240h settled and warm for all the UK. 

Which coincides beautifully with the last of the pupils north of the border returning to school, so is therefore an almost certain outcome. 

It certainly looks like a continuation of the signal for more summery conditions in the medium term.

I have said on a few occasions over recent weeks that as long as pressure remained fairly high over the Greenland region, there would be little chance of a meaningful rise in pressure over the UK giving us the kind of sustained settled spell that many people have been hoping for. My recollection of following the model output regularly ever since late May/early June this year is that pressure over Greenland has more often been high than low, hence the mostly unsettled weather many areas have had.

Should things verfify as shown, it will be good news for those areas of the UK that have recently been affected by flooding, and will allow repairs to be carried on the dam in Derbyshire that was close to collapse a couple of weeks ago.

As analogues for the summer go, it looks like we won’t be far off 1999. going to be closest:

June 1999: average temps, generally very wet and stormy

July 1999: warm and sunny, pretty dry in many places

August 1999: wet and stormy, flooding in Lancs and North East, slightly warmer than average. Weather improved markedly in the final week leading to a very warm and sunny Sept.

Here's an FI chart from GFS 12z; no way can that setup be relied upon at that range, but I thought it was a super synoptic artwork that illustrates how significant changes can potentially occur over a short timescale. The changes won't have happened by this chart, but in the previous days, HP had been building strongly across the BIs with 10C + 850s widely established. By early on 30th it looked as if something special from the warm side was afoot; then two things happen:

1. Heights build over Greenland leading to a very cold late summer/ early autumn set up there;
2. HP over BIs started to sink back westwards, opening the flood gates potentially for the N'lies that were setting up to the E of the Greenland HP.

If this chart was followed through, I suspect that by 3rd Sep we would all feel the influence of that cold inflow.

Comment made for hypothetical illustrative purposes only. Note the long fetch NElies W of France and Spain that would upset attempts by the LP off the Labrador coast to intrude on that cold setup. I think this is a fascinating chart, notwithstanding the need to preempt challenges to the lack of probability at that range. Personally I think GFS has got into a habit of late of assuming N blocking in one form or another, possibly because of its frequency this summer.

I find all the charts disappointing tbh. The ECM 240 looks fragile and is too far out anyway. The GFS0z didn't concern me until I went to the ENS, expecting the green to be low in the range, which it wasn't really. In the Op, seems the HP belt alignment is more WSW-ENE instead of SW-NE which allows it to collapse more easily when the next low pushes in. The overdue Nward shift of the jet was still being prophecied by the Beeb yesterday, but the northerly loops rippling across the Atlantic seem to break up on reaching the uk, then reestablish over Europe.

Yes a bit of a wobble on of the Uber settled conditions for next week looks more like a NW - SE split this morning. Still better than what many have had recently though. My hunch is this is just a wobble and a much more significant settled spell for all of the UK will return to the output over the next couple of days.

As suspected the 12s are much better. Warm and settled for a significant length of time.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

As suspected the 12s are much better. Warm and settled for a significant length of time.

Fair shout. B/H weekend looking decent if not very decent down south. Good weather when it’s wanted.