It's also forecast to not get above around 15°C here. However, it's not raining here just now and given the recent performances by the official forecasts, I still don't fully trust them.

What's the betting therefore, that the Sun comes out here in a short while with temperatures getting above 20°C once again, and with maybe a little bit of rain towards this evening if we're lucky?

 

Zero.

You appear to have a whole sack of King Edwards on your shoulder about the weather generally. I've just caught up with this thread and reading your contributions has been weird. Literate but entitled. But how can anyone be entitled about the weather?

When TWO started out you could understand why people got a bit hissy about forecasting and warnings etc because the internet and social media was very much in its infancy. But now? No excuse. If people really don't understand what warnings mean, and how to an extent they have to be general to allow the message to get across then that's not the forecasters' fault.

A 50% chance of a thunderstorm means you're equally as likely to get one as you are not to. What is it about that some people find hard to understand?

 

 

 

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There is interest and pleasure in experiencing and exploring every aspect of weather and climate.

I wonder why some folks persevere with it if it gets them so steamed up.

I don't mind the ritual British moaning. It's the genuine angst and bad temper that mystifies me.

Weather is all about probability and surprises and trying to learn from and understand it.

Sometimes there are dramatic events and good stories to tell. What's not to like?

Roger

Absolutely Agree!  

Health warning: grey disease. E Scotland most likely affected. Some immunity likely.

   Yes, I think we can tell Doc’s immune!!  

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The National Severe Weather Warning Service is an impact based system based on the likelihood of low, medium or high impacts from weather. In other words its a risk assessment that takes place. That means that actual weather expected, antecedent conditions (ground states/state of rivers), time of day, time of week and time of year are all taken into consideration when deciding whether a warning is or is likely to become necessary. For example the windy conditions of last weekend would have been unlikely to warrant a warning in November - simply because those winds are entirely normal in late Autumn and trees are out of leaf. Consider gusts 40-50mph in August when folk are on holiday - camping, towing caravans putting up bouncy castles etc etc and trees topple easily its a completely different scenario.
When it comes to risk assessment the colour of a warning is derived from the risk assessment of impact against the likelihood of those impacts occurring. So forecasters will decide how much rain is likely in an hour from thunderstorms (which itself depends on speed of movement, CAPE and precipitable water) and decide the most likely impacts - remembering also that ground/river conditions are in the mix. If low impacts are expected, then the likelihood will most likely be assessed using things like frequency of storms and locality to be affected - IE highly populated-v-sparsely populated.
Bear in mind also that being a risk assessment a medium likelihood - (say a 40% chance) means that some places will, by definition not see a storm or impacts from a storm(s) within the warning area. This is often covered in the text of the warning with the phrase, 'while some will see few if any storms' other places may see a torrential downpour causing the risk of surface water flooding and some lightning damage'.
Surely nobody realistically expects exactly the same weather in all places even on a non-warning day so why should anyone expect to see warnable weather at every spot within a warning zone - that's clearly not going to happen.
However its worth pointing out that research undertaken with the public has revealed that the public wish to know about impactful weather that may affect their journeys - so just because its Ok in your driveway or back garden - doesn't mean its going to be Ok 5 to 10 miles down the road.
Warnings currently consist of a map showing the area affected, a headline which states the main weather and impact, a set of 'what to expect bullets' determined by the risk assessment and for the weather anoraks among us - a more details text explaining rainfall amounts. Basically something for everyone including those who just want a glance and those who like a little more detail.
The current system is in place as the result of about 10 years of intense research and questioning of the two main users of the Service - the public and responders/blue lights who come to the public's assistance when necessary.
Nobody wants to issue warnings when they're not necessary - but sometimes when you get a long spell of the same type of weather it can seem like there are too many warnings.
Finally, in the month of May - only one yellow warning was issued for the whole of the UK in 31 days. Just goes to show - its swings and roundabouts.....

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Well said John.

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Are we crying wolf?

Not really, though with five or so electrical storm warnings for Dorset this summer we have been in the sweet spot and missed all of them. They have shown up on the radar all around north, south, east and west but still skirted around us. How they managed it I have no idea. Must be one of very few places in England I think to not have a thunderstorm this year.

I love a good thunderstorm though and would be great to have one this summer or what's left of it.

 

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We have a yellow warning of thunderstorms today. As yet we’ve had nothing locally but the warning included the potential for flooding and spray causing difficult driving conditions.  That was of great use as I had a 23 mile drive to a business meeting this afternoon and it was a good job I took note and allowed extra time for my journey, because I drove through some very heavy rain and the roads were awash.  

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What’s more annoying is businesses NOT taking heed of weather forecasts at all, let alone the full blown warnings.

I’m know I’m digressing somewhat but it’s a real bug of mine.

Today was a perfect example, the tenpin bowling in Kingston town centre, clearly bound to be busy mid summer hols and a proper rainy day. However I Booked a lane and food two days ago knowing things were going to be iffy. I turn up today, one person on reception with a Q no less than 30 deep (the majority probably not having booked and looking for something to do last minute on a rainy day) and one person running between kitchen and the bar. It was pandemonium.

Similar is country pubs near natural attractions and I’m including one of my locals in this. Hot weather forecast for weeks ahead, pay day Friday and you find two bar staff on and one runner for food from the kitchen.

Surely if you run a business involving the general public or even not, it pays to check the weather forecast?

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We have a yellow warning of thunderstorms today. As yet we’ve had nothing locally but the warning included the potential for flooding and spray causing difficult driving conditions.  That was of great use as I had a 23 mile drive to a business meeting this afternoon and it was a good job I took note and allowed extra time for my journey, because I drove through some very heavy rain and the roads were awash.  

Ironically most of the rain is falling outside of the warning zone 

What’s more annoying is businesses NOT taking heed of weather forecasts at all, let alone the full blown warnings.

I’m know I’m digressing somewhat but it’s a real bug of mine.

Today was a perfect example, the tenpin bowling in Kingston town centre, clearly bound to be busy mid summer hols and a proper rainy day. However I Booked a lane and food two days ago knowing things were going to be iffy. I turn up today, one person on reception with a Q no less than 30 deep (the majority probably not having booked and looking for something to do last minute on a rainy day) and one person running between kitchen and the bar. It was pandemonium.

Similar is country pubs near natural attractions and I’m including one of my locals in this. Hot weather forecast for weeks ahead, pay day Friday and you find two bar staff on and one runner for food from the kitchen.

Surely if you run a business involving the general public or even not, it pays to check the weather forecast?

Or more likely the business isn’t bothered if they provide adequate cover or not, although it’s not always that easy to  get extra staff in at short notice.

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A fair comment Warren. I spent much of yesterday communicating decisions to cancel 2 natural history field meetings on Saturday. In both cases woodland was involved and the owners were concerned at the possible risk to the public. Both meetings have now been rescheduled. Had these gone ahead trusting to probability and human common sense it could have proved a bad decision. The question is how late do you leave things before cancelling? I'd spent the past week promoting the same events and the organisers knew about the Yellow Warnings!

Roger

 

Woodland and forest  pose a particular risk in windy weather - especially  when trees are in full leaf.  A woodland local to me that is opened as a local amenity has a warden that emails when he considers it too windy to safely enter the woodland.   He's an experienced woodsman and only a fool would ignore what he has to say.  The problem is that non locals won't get his emails. 

His warning are frequently issued  at times we are not under an official met Office weather warning but nonetheless on entering the wood  after they have expired one frequently see small trees and large branches lying across the paths.

My own personal view is common sense  and local knowledge like this is the way forward - Met office warnings are a pretty blunt tool and it has to be said the general perception is there are now too many of them.  If they descended further   to the level of warning required to protect  our (and everyone else's)  local woodland and particular local amenity (bouncy castles and ballooning events, lighting bonfires etc etc) there wouldn't be many days without one. My personal view is they should  be reserved for events that are extraordinary  (dangerous for a widespread variety of reasons when it really would be a good idea to stay put)   as opposed to  run of the mill (dangerous for specific activities).

 

 

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Woodland and forest  pose a particular risk in windy weather - especially  when trees are in full leaf.  A woodland local to me that is opened as a local amenity has a warden that emails when he considers it too windy to safely enter the woodland.   He's an experienced woodsman and only a fool would ignore what he has to say.  The problem is that non locals won't get his emails. 

His warning are frequently issued  at times we are not under an official met Office weather warning but nonetheless on entering the wood  after they have expired one frequently see small trees and large branches lying across the paths.

My own personal view is common sense  and local knowledge like this is the way forward - Met office warnings are a pretty blunt tool and it has to be said the general perception is there are now too many of them.  If they descended further   to the level of warning required to protect  our (and everyone else's)  local woodland and particular local amenity (bouncy castles and ballooning events, lighting bonfires etc etc) there wouldn't be many days without one. My personal view is they should  be reserved for events that are extraordinary  (dangerous for a widespread variety of reasons when it really would be a good idea to stay put)   as opposed to  run of the mill (dangerous for specific activities).

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That sounds like a no win situation for the Met Office. For every person complaining there are too many warnings is there another saying, “it has been dangerously windy/wet etc. In my back yard, why was there no warning?”

I guess in a somewhat litigious society it is also often seen as better to err on the safe side?

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Woodland and forest  pose a particular risk in windy weather - especially  when trees are in full leaf.  A woodland local to me that is opened as a local amenity has a warden that emails when he considers it too windy to safely enter the woodland.   He's an experienced woodsman and only a fool would ignore what he has to say.  The problem is that non locals won't get his emails. 

His warning are frequently issued  at times we are not under an official met Office weather warning but nonetheless on entering the wood  after they have expired one frequently see small trees and large branches lying across the paths.

My own personal view is common sense  and local knowledge like this is the way forward - Met office warnings are a pretty blunt tool and it has to be said the general perception is there are now too many of them.  If they descended further   to the level of warning required to protect  our (and everyone else's)  local woodland and particular local amenity (bouncy castles and ballooning events, lighting bonfires etc etc) there wouldn't be many days without one. My personal view is they should  be reserved for events that are extraordinary  (dangerous for a widespread variety of reasons when it really would be a good idea to stay put)   as opposed to  run of the mill (dangerous for specific activities).

 

 

Very much agreed. I pretty much dismiss the yellow warnings as there are so many of them and they don't tend to bring conditions that really merit being 'warned' about. A yellow warning for rain? You get a wet day, so what they're common enough. A yellow warning for wind in winter and you get a few twigs being blown around. Again nothing unusual for the time of year. For these relatively normal conditions mention that it will be wet or windy simply needs to be made in the regulaer forecasts, with reference to any specific attendant hazards (spray on roads etc) rather than a specific 'warning' as such. That just hypes everything up.

 

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That sounds like a no win situation for the Met Office. For every person complaining there are too many warnings is there another saying, “it has been dangerously windy/wet etc. In my back yard, why was there no warning?”

I guess in a somewhat litigious society it is also often seen as better to err on the safe side?

Yes, I'm supposing if you ran an event  when a Met Office warning is in force in your area and something did happen, it would be  be vanishingly unlikely an insurance company would pay out on grounds of organiser negligence.

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Yes, I'm supposing if you ran an event  when a Met Office warning is in force in your area and something did happen, it would be  be vanishingly unlikely an insurance company would pay out on grounds of organiser negligence.

Quite. Boardmasters in Cornwall springs instantly to mind.

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As good, or as bad, as the Met Office weather warnings are I wonder whether joe public pay attention to them anyway ? I was at my favourite beach in West Wales on Saturday, both Met Office and BBC had warnings about wind and large waves. I was there for the waves and surfed for 3 hours. The beach, which is very sheltered from the wind, felt almost summery and was packed with tourists lots of whom were in the water despite the conditions. On three separate occasions surfers assisted a teenager back to shore after they got picked up in the nearshore currents and taken out way out of their depth where they'd begun to panic. Parents standing on the shore helpless. I'm guessing it would have been another headline if the surfers weren't there to help. This was repeated up and down the Welsh coastline as I've seen various reports of surfer 'heros' saving people from the water.

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I personally think the warning system is good as it is but having read some posts, I wonder if the Met Office should perhaps rename them to Weather Advisories!  Just a thought. 

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No I don’t think it’s crying wolf. In fact I always take time to look at the detailed assessment of the warning, the impact/likelihood graphic and the regions affected. You can then make a clear judgement how severe it will be.

I’d actually go as far as saying the MetOffice at times this summer have been over cautious at times. There have been a number of severe events that on their own could have justified a orange or even red warning.

Take the dam incident. There was torrential rain for long duration and I don’t even think the warning went orange. I suspect it that dam had failed their would’ve been questions asked.

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