There have been some poor days here this month but also a larger number of warm days with above average temperatures. Overall average but a bit wet.

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The weather this August is just a mess. I'm in the process of moving house and I got absolutely soaked every time I stepped outside to fill the van yesterday and again this morning. It's been cold, wet, blustery and miserable. 

And it still managed to give some light showers this afternoon FFS. Despite the promise of a fine afternoon it still rained. Somehow we are still dealing with the last of the showers from the departing low pressure, mere hours before the cloud shield from the next one inexorably moves moves in. Normally you might get a half decent day from a transient ridge like this but but not this time. Some sun earlier in the afternoon but just cloud now. Pathetic.

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I'm getting the impression from reading other posts that it hasn't been a great summer over most of the UK, save for a few areas that have been a bit more fortunate.

What has let this summer down for me in terms of my area has been the lack of any sustained settled spell. We haven't had a fully dry week here going all the way back to the start of June, and it has seemed that rain has never been too far away. Even the week of the record-breaking mini-heatwave in late July was not a completely settled affair, and since that spell ended the weather seems to have been worse in a lot of areas than it was previously.

The way I’m reading this, it was the North West around Manchester that came off worst!  The best of summer weather is usually reserved mainly for the South East but I think East Anglia and the Midlands have done well this year.  I know I certainly have!  

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Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
1953 193
2019 193 (up to 15th August)
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1902 195
1915 196
1981 196
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1952 198
2000 198
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199 

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Yes, August in today’s climate is an autumn month. I’m going to do some analysis of the stats to see what’s going on here. I know it’s one of only 2 months along with December with no significant warming trend (at least it was last time I looked). Yet July is getting to be almost predictably dry and warm in the SE.

Significantly warmer and sunnier Augusts than average since 2003 here in the SE: zero

Average-slightly warm and average sunshine 2005, 2009 at a push, 2013, 2016 if were being charitable. Dull most other years, and whilst never cold, rarely very warm and often very wet.

Then Septembers warm, dry and sunny year after year, with only a few exceptions.

I get the sense the same is true of much of Western Europe. Just chance, or some kind of long term pattern shift?

 

Spot on.  I predicted as much earlier in the year that August would turn out like this in my post about how short summer would feel.  No great acheivement, as August is always like this now.  I think to get a hot August in 'todays' climate would be a freak incident.

 

Amazing that this is the second warmest month statistically, considering all the cloud and rain.

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This last week or so isn't turning out to be as bad as it had been forecast to be, at least in terms in rainfall. I know that in recent days, there has been some recent hints in the model output of possibly some warmer and drier weather towards the end of next week in particular due to high pressure starting to take more of a foothold.

Despite the current "unsettled" pattern of weather which we are in just now though, I would say that this drying up process has probably already started here as it has certainly been nowhere near as wet here over the last week as what it had been leading up to that.

The rain which was forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday virtually failed to materialise here and even though today was forecast to be the worst day of this week, it still hasn't been raining with any sort of conviction here during today with amounts being very small because of that (those amounts as at 10am this morning were 1.6 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and just 0.6 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh) and it's not even raining here at all as I write (in fact, the Sun has even just briefly appeared).

Sunshine totals have continued to be disappointing though just recently but even with that, we have had a couple of sunny days just recently with 9.4 hours of sunshine being recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank on Tuesday and with 8.0 hours of sunshine being recorded there during yesterday. This means that if that better weather from next week as has been hinted by the models was to verify, that would put us in with a chance of getting way with a sunnier than average month overall and if that happens, this will then mean that two out of three of this year's summer months will have been sunnier than average overall.

Recent days haven't been all that warm here, but this month is still running a bit warmer than average. July in particular, was another warmer than average though not to the same extent as last year despite the fact that we had our hottest day on record here in Edinburgh during that month. Nevertheless, this does mean that this summer as a whole is still running warmer than average.

When you add of this together and remove from the overall picture, the fact that it has been so wet at times with some flooding, there isn't really too much to complain about as far as this summer is concerned in this part of the world especially since this has probably been our best summer for thunderstorms which I can remember in my lifetime.

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Yes, August in today’s climate is an autumn month. I’m going to do some analysis of the stats to see what’s going on here. I know it’s one of only 2 months along with December with no significant warming trend (at least it was last time I looked). Yet July is getting to be almost predictably dry and warm in the SE.

Significantly warmer and sunnier Augusts than average since 2003 here in the SE: zero

Average-slightly warm and average sunshine 2005, 2009 at a push, 2013, 2016 if were being charitable. Dull most other years, and whilst never cold, rarely very warm and often very wet.

Then Septembers warm, dry and sunny year after year, with only a few exceptions.

I get the sense the same is true of much of Western Europe. Just chance, or some kind of long term pattern shift?

 

I agree with much of the sentiment expressed here, however there are a few years to consider as being  significantly warmer and sunnier than the LTA in the SE quadrant, namely: 2009, 2013, 2016   - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps see average mean maxima and sunshine for the SE.  Depends on your definition of "significant" I suppose...

August has overtaken June (which has undergone a renaissance) as the underperformer.  But the wheel of fortune turns and its time will come again.

WI

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This summer reminds me at times in terms of rainfall of a combination of summer 2007 for intensity and 2012 for prolongedness.

Provisional rainfall figures of 182mm for 17th July-14th August is just ridiculous!

Already over 300mm of rainfall for this summer up to the 14th August and there was a 3 week period in the middle when only about 8mm fell!

 

 

 

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Pressure, rainfall and sunshine anomalies do suggest this month (Aug 2019) is is more akin to a very warm autumn month than a typical summer one.

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html 

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And then, just when I think the models are aligning on a settled and pleasant end to August (I'm int' Yaaarksher Dales last week of Aug), they now begin to diverge and suggest more unsettled crap.

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And then, just when I think the models are aligning on a settled and pleasant end to August (I'm int' Yaaarksher Dales last week of Aug), they now begin to diverge and suggest more unsettled crap.

This morning they were suggesting on BBC Breakfast that it would be fine moving towards the Bank Holiday weekend. That's all disappeared now of course, on this lunchtime's forecast it was a 'temporary respite' in the middle of next week, nothing more. So that's that one gone then. I do wonder sometimes why we even bother with a third summer month when it's just going to end up like October. Why not just have 5 autumn months, August through to December?

Pouring with rain here of course as it has been most of the day but has got especially bad this afternoon. Roll on winter that's all I can say, can't wait to see the back of this miserable 'fag end' of a summer.

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This morning they were suggesting on BBC Breakfast that it would be fine moving towards the Bank Holiday weekend. That's all disappeared now of course, on this lunchtime's forecast it was a 'temporary respite' in the middle of next week, nothing more. So that's that one gone then. I do wonder sometimes why we even bother with a third summer month when it's just going to end up like October. Why not just have 5 autumn months, August through to December?

Pouring with rain here of course as it has been most of the day but has got especially bad this afternoon. Roll on winter that's all I can say, can't wait to see the back of this miserable 'fag end' of a summer.

 

Two odd things:

Augusts never used to be this bad; in fact, they were always pretty much of a muchness with July (year on year variation notwithstanding). 

September is more often than not a fine month. Temps aside, it's been a better month than August for many of the past dozen or so years.

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And then, just when I think the models are aligning on a settled and pleasant end to August (I'm int' Yaaarksher Dales last week of Aug), they now begin to diverge and suggest more unsettled crap.

My have my sympathies. Standing in a field in Bramham at the end of next week wasn't looking too bad before recent model runs. Now it's decidedly dicey. I have all my eggs in UKMO's basket right now (until the 12zs come out).

 

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This summer reminds me at times in terms of rainfall of a combination of summer 2007 for intensity and 2012 for prolongedness.

Provisional rainfall figures of 182mm for 17th July-14th August is just ridiculous!

Already over 300mm of rainfall for this summer up to the 14th August and there was a 3 week period in the middle when only about 8mm fell!

 

 

 

I suppose this highlights a slight problem with the Summer Index you publish (and of which I am a fan !)

The index has actually gone up between July 15 and Aug 15 from 185 to 195 and I suspect this is because the very high temperatures in the last week in July have had such a huge effect on the summer average max temp (even though it was only 1 week) that it has more than cancelled out all the wet days in the last month

Without getting into a much  more complex algorithm, I cannot see an easy answer to that (and it doesn't happen very often luckily)

 

 

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I suppose this highlights a slight problem with the Summer Index you publish (and of which I am a fan !)

The index has actually gone up between July 15 and Aug 15 from 185 to 195 and I suspect this is because the very high temperatures in the last week in July have had such a huge effect on the summer average max temp (even though it was only 1 week) that it has more than cancelled out all the wet days in the last month

Without getting into a much  more complex algorithm, I cannot see an easy answer to that (and it doesn't happen very often luckily)

 

In that period, though, there weren't that many days with rain, and a fair bit of sun. 

As you say, it's the limitations of using rain quantities to gauge how good a summer is, when that rain typically fell in relatively short and heavy bursts.

 

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See? Bit of a moan, and the 12zs look better already. 

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In that period, though, there weren't that many days with rain, and a fair bit of sun. 

As you say, it's the limitations of using rain quantities to gauge how good a summer is, when that rain typically fell in relatively short and heavy bursts.

But also, as you said yourself, Kev’s summer index has been inflated by the temperatures throughout July.  You can get higher than average temps, but lower than average sunshine and the stats would show it as average overall.  Stats are great for some things and I love Kev’s index but sometimes human accounts are better for clarity. 

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I’ve been thinking about changing my E&W summer index from its current model (equal weighting to sunshine, rain and temperature) to one that gives extra weighting to sunshine hours. Ultimately, sunshine and blue sky are what make a summer.

This summer (even late July) has been decidedly meh in the sunshine stakes. Last year was unusually sunny from spring to autumn and we all felt it.

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One of the main disadvantages of Summer Indices are they fail to take into account the 'Weekend Curse'. So often we see fine weather restricted to weekdays and the weekends are awful which is useless to those of us who work regular hours. This is purely a summer phenomenon. July 2019 and August 2018 were perfect examples of that. Seemed fairly average/mediocre on paper but because of the 'Weekend Curse' felt like utter garbage.

This month has been utter garbage no matter how you look at it. Pretty much zero decent weather whatsoever. Today was another vile day - drizzled all day long for a total of 1.4mm and this is what we are seeing constantly. Day after day of November like drizzle and light rain that is not adding up to much but is just completely writing off the summer. Intense downpours and thunder would produce higher rain totals but would, at least, feel more like summer than this grim rubbish.

10 days in a row of measurable rainfall and no end in sight so could potentially even beat the ridiculous stretch of 14 consecutive rain days from 21st June to 4th July 2012 which is the longest I have recorded in summer over the past 14 years. If that were to happen it would assure this summers place as one of the most dismally unsettled of all time. Only the very sunny second half of June has saved it from being exceptionally dull as well like so many since 2007.

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One of the main disadvantages of Summer Indices are they fail to take into account the 'Weekend Curse'. So often we see fine weather restricted to weekdays and the weekends are awful which is useless to those of us who work regular hours. This is purely a summer phenomenon. July 2019 and August 2018 were perfect examples of that. Seemed fairly average/mediocre on paper but because of the 'Weekend Curse' felt like utter garbage.

This month has been utter garbage no matter how you look at it. Pretty much zero decent weather whatsoever. Today was another vile day - drizzled all day long for a total of 1.4mm and this is what we are seeing constantly. Day after day of November like drizzle and light rain that is not adding up to much but is just completely writing off the summer. Intense downpours and thunder would produce higher rain totals but would, at least, feel more like summer than this grim rubbish.

10 days in a row of measurable rainfall and no end in sight so could potentially even beat the ridiculous stretch of 14 consecutive rain days from 21st June to 4th July 2012 which is the longest I have recorded in summer over the past 14 years. If that were to happen it would assure this summers place as one of the most dismally unsettled of all time. Only the very sunny second half of June has saved it from being exceptionally dull as well like so many since 2007.

I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.

If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.

 

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