Summer has been perfect for me so far, if I go by the Astronomical definition.  The less said about June, the better.  Every day has been sunny and since the heatwave at the end of June temps have been low to mid 20’s every day and staying warm until after dark.  Even yesterday was sunny to the end, as the storms veered either side of us.  

More of this would suit me nicely and if It continues through the English school holidays that would be the icing on the cake.  Not that I have any school age kids now, but I think it’s such a shame when they break up for the summer and the summer breaks up!  Summer is when childhood memories are made!   

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In one of today's videos which Gavin P. released today, he mentioned that some people in the north of the UK was now rating this month so far as being the worst since 2012 with the south of the UK experiencing quite a decent month so far. I know that Gavin P. has his own discussion area within his own website which he looks after himself with the help of various people including those who he often mentions on his videos, such as James Akrill.

Since that is outside of this forum, it might well be the case that people within the chat section of his own website take the view that this month has been the worst since 2012 in the north of the UK. Since I don't normally follow Gavin P.'s chat pages, I can't actually confirm that. As far as the TWO weather forum is concerned though, there hasn't really been anyone here who would have taken such a view that I know of, other than Richard from Aberdeen for whom, that is the generally which would probably have taken anyway.

Personally, I don't agree with the notion that this month has somehow been the worst since 2012 in the north of the UK, and that has certainly not been the case here. In a true unsettled spell during a poor summer (which is usually the case, during the majority of years), we would be getting showers whenever they are being forecast, and even getting them at times when it has been forecast to be dry. That just hasn't been the case here though during this month.

Yes, we have had periods of wet weather at times which on the odd occasion, has produced a lot of rainfall and even a bit of flash flooding. Yet, those wetter spells always end up being brief with the next significant dry spell never being far away. As far as the overall rainfall during this month is concerned, most of the rain which we have had during this month has fallen in the three day period between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, and even most of Thursday's rain fell during the early part of that morning.

In fact, this month is actually running not all that much wetter than average here and so far, the vast majority of days during this month have actually been completely dry. There has been numerous occasions when showers have been forecast and even one occasion (which was yesterday) when there was thunderstorms forecast for this area. Yet every time we get such a forecast, these showers and/or thunderstorms just never actually happen here and because of that, it's now got to the point where we can now actually safely ignore such a forecast as we know that we are never actually going to get those showers and/or thunderstorms in this part of the world.

Yet if this was a true and genuine poor summer month, there is absolutely no way on this Earth that this would be the case because in these years, these showers don't just occur when they are forecast to, but they end up being worse than what was forecast as well. The fact that this isn't happening surely has to show that this hasn't actually been such a bad month here after all.

The only downside is that it's been slightly colder than average overall, and that is due to the fact that daytime maximum temperatures have tended to be rather disappointing (overnight minimum temperatures are running at around average just now). Even on that front though, the last few days have actually been quite warm and so things are even improving on that front as well. In addition to that, we're also not doing too badly as regards to sunshine whereas in a genuinely poor summer month, it would be easy to tell that the month in question was duller than average due to the lack of sunshine being much more blatant than what it has been during this month so far.

If you then add all of those factors to the fact that I also live within the northern half of the UK, we can then see that the weather up here (at least in this part of the northern half of the UK) hasn't actually been as bad as what some people would make it out to be.

EDIT:

Just after posting this, I then looked outside and noticed that the heavens had suddenly opened, as it was now raining quite heavily. However, that is only one occasion where we have actually had any showers which have been forecast which is not enough to disprove my theory that this has generally not been happening during this month.

 

 

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Level 2 heatwave alert issued for parts of the south

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 10:08 on Fri 19 Jul 2019

There is a 60 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Tuesday and 0900 on Thursday in parts of England.

A warm spell of weather is forecast to develop through the early part of next week, with the highest temperatures likely in the south and east of England. Conditions will stay warm and humid by night which could lead to uncomfortable sleeping conditions. Cloud and outbreaks of rain or thunderstorms are more likely in the west and north, with uncertainty at this time in these details, including how long the hot conditions will last for in the south and east.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for all regions in England apart from the north-east and north-west

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:08 on Sat 20 Jul 2019

There is an 80 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Tuesday and 0900 on Thursday in parts of England.

A hot or very hot spell of weather is forecast to develop through the early part of next week, with the highest temperatures likely in the south and east of England. Conditions will stay very warm and humid by night which could lead to uncomfortable sleeping conditions. Some uncertainty regarding cloud and potential thunderstorms from Wednesday and thus how long the very warm conditions will last.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link:  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Summer just got a bit too hot for me!  33c is just too hot to do anything and I no longer have a nice air conditioned office to escape to!  I’m supposed to be helping my daughter landscape her garden but we knocked off at 10am and sat in the shade. These temps are OK if you have the sea or a pool to dip in but not when you have work to do!

On the plus side, if there is one, I’m off to Jamaica in less than four weeks time, so I should be well acclimatised.  Although today, temps in the Caribbean are probably a bit lower than the UK.  

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My weather station registered over 40 degrees C this afternoon.  It has been uncomfortably hot in SE England today.

My temperature reached 30.9c. Manageable but the humidity makes it worse. Glad to lose it soon.

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This has been quite a strange summer because in the past, it would normally only have been during a really good summer such as what we had last year, that we would expect to see the sort of temperature records being broken which we saw yesterday.

Yet, this summer hasn't been a great summer overall, although it has been OK after that atrocious start to it. The events of this month will probably place the overall temperatures during this summer so far, on the warmer side of average after that cool start to June. However, our sunshine totals haven't really been any better than average overall, and this has actually been a wet summer here overall, although that rain has been coming in short, sharp bursts with plenty of dry weather in between.

This then makes it all the more remarkable that we're still seeing those temperature records being broken in spite of all of that. My fear though is that a developing La Nina in the ENSO region might lead to a poor August here. The outlook according to the latest model output isn't looking all that great and if that was to come off, that would then be enough for this summer to go down as a poor summer here overall, thanks to that cold and miserable start to June in addition to whatever August might throw at us.

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Well, we’re back to typical school holiday weather.  Grey and wet!  But I have a feeling we’ll be getting some more warm sunny weather before long.  I have no scientific evidence of course but we’ve had the ‘summer is over’ feeling a couple of times already this year and it just seems like we’re stuck in a different weather pattern this year.  Continental Europe has finally decided to send heat our way.  

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Turning out to be a really crap summer.

A very dismal June, followed by a mixed July with a couple of brief heatwaves but interspersed with heavy rain, and the forecast for August is more rubbish.

So far it gets a 4.5/10  (June: 3 / July: 6). That could easily go downwards with a poor August.

 

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This summer has been very strange because when it's been wet here, it's been really wet. Yet on the vast majority of occasions such as today when showers have been forecast, we just haven't been getting those showers here in Edinburgh.

On this occasion, this comes from the fact that the main area of low pressure to a bit too far to our south to do anything other than to pull in an easterly wind from off the North Sea which then drags in a lot of muck with it. That then dampens any convective potential here which then has the effect of keeping these parts mostly bone dry.

However, that easterly muck doesn't penetrate very far inland which results in it becoming sunnier and warmer there. That then increases the convective potential the further inland that you go which then, results in those big showers and thunderstorms being set off there as a result.

To me, it is just a shame that we can't seem to get this sort of synoptic setup during the middle of winter because if we did, those easterly winds would probably have been a lot colder and instead of a lot of easterly muck coming off the North Sea, we would instead have probably being seeing quite a number of snow (or least, wintry) showers being brought in so this just shows what a difference, the time of year can make.

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A yellow severe weather warning for thunderstorms has been issued for Sunday afternoon and evening

12:00 Sun 4 22:00 Sun 4

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may cause some transport disruption and flooding on Sunday.

What to expect

• There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater and lightning strikes


• There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life


• Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services


• There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across Scotland and northern England during Sunday afternoon into the evening. The nature of showers means that the exact location of where impacts occur is uncertain. However, showers may become slow-moving over some locations and could receive 30-40 mm of rainfall in one or two hours.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-08-04&id=c2630e6c-d723-4499-ba37-99987987ce0e&details

I've been struck by the number of times this last month or so that the Max day temp and the min day temp in the SE have been at Heathrow and St Catherine's Point respectively. Not individually, but almost always paired up; and other stations such as Gosport Fleetlands (max) and Langdon Bay (min) just getting an occasional look in. 

I can appreciate the reasons why these two stations should often feature; but as I've said, so frequently as a pair merits comment

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Well, I can honestly say that here, this summer has been good since the end of June!   I know some places have had flooding but we’ve missed most of the rain and have had temps at least in the mid twenties every day.  It may be about to change but I really can’t grumble!  

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Change the name this thread for the next few days. It is going to be rather Autumnal ..

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This Simple Summer Index has been around since 2017.  It takes sunshine hours, mean maximum temperature, and dry days for each month, processes them in a proportionate way  with a slight bias in favour of sunshine (weighted 0.4 as opposed to 0.3 for temperature and dry days).

It aims to strip out as far as possible any subjectivity and use objective data to measure the quality of a summer taking sunshine, daytime maxima and dry days as its measure of quality summer weather.  (June July and August are denoted as the 3 months in question).

The highest score for any summer this far on this index is 74.7 (Manston 2018).  The lowest score is 30.9 (Lerwick 2015). the mean score for all summers across all stations is 52.0. A score of 52 would represent a very poor summer by the standards of Eastbourne, but a very good one for Stornoway.  So in a sense its interesting to note the mean and median scores for each climate station, as the geographical-climatic impact on summer weather quality is notable.

You will note that stations in the far South east tend to outperform stations further north and west, which I unsurprising in some respects.

2018 was clearly and outstanding summer for many stations away from the far NW. 2009 brought perhaps the biggest ever NW SE divide, and 2013 one of the smallest ever, with much of the country enjoying excellent summer weather.

What results will 2019 bring?

 

Simple Summer Index 2001-2018 by Whether Idle
Year	Manston	Bradford	Glasgow	London	Lerwick	Eastbourne	Yeovilton	Armagh	Stornoway
2001	66.4	50.8	45.2	65.5	33.2	68.8	61.3	45.3	40.2
2002	64.4	47.0	43.5	58.3	39.6	62.7	57.0	42.3	37.0
2003	74.1	52.8	51.6	69.9	43.8	72.6	62.1	50.4	39.1
2004	60.3	46.1	44.9	62.0	42.3	64.7	56.2	47.4	38.7
2005	65.4	51.7	51.7	61.4	34.2	70.7	63.0	45.7	34.8
2006	70.1	57.0	57.4	65.8	40.0	70.9	67.6	52.8	42.9
2007	59.1	46.9	45.8	51.7	35.4	61.8	51.6	41.4	39.7
2008	65.8	43.1	42.5	54.2	38.2	60.0	49.0	40.6	39.1
2009	68.5	49.4	46.9	56.2	44.7	67.5	51.1	47.0	40.6
2010	62.6	49.6	48.5	59.3	35.4	66.2	60.4	48.0	36.1
2011	59.7	54.0	48.7	53.3	36.3	63.8	49.0	44.4	37.8
2012	55.1	41.1	42.1	49.7	36.7	58.7	44.0	38.4	39.1
2013	62.3	58.4	57.3	65.9	37.8	68.4	63.8	55.6	42.7
2014	62.1	53.7	55.2	62.4	37.2	62.8	60.8	48.0	42.7
2015	56.0	50.6	45.0	56.9	30.9	60.4	57.0	44.0	30.7
2016	63.8	48.9	43.0	57.9	38.4	61.7	57.1	42.2	34.8
2017	65.4	47.5	37.2	59.5	36.0	67.2	54.6	41.5	40.1
2018	74.7	62.8	55.7	72.8	39.9	73.8	66.6	53.3	39.4
mean	64.2	50.6	47.9	60.1	37.8	65.7	57.3	46.0	38.6	All stations	52.0
median	64.1	50.1	46.3	59.4	37.5	65.4	57.1	45.5	39.1	51.6

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Since 20th June inclusive, and including today, there have only been 4 days locally that have failed to reach 20C which is a fair get-out-and- about threshold.

3 of these have been this month, but with another warm spell increasingly expected now, we might see the month out on 20s +

That, coupled with the potential for 2 successive 17C+ CET months, all 3 summer months above average and more 30C days here than last year, means that the record hot day won't be the only positive reason I remember summer 2019.

It's been similar in some ways to 1989- cold June start, recovering to average with a single 29C + day; July warmth, especially later on; decent first week or so of August and an overall warm month. But this month looks like it could emulate 1981 or 1991 fot its late heatwave after an okay month.

I speak, of course, for CS England only.

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Back in June, I was wondering whether or not, we would even have much of a summer this year given how cold and unsettled it was at that time. Since then though, we had hottest day on record here in Edinburgh during July. As far as the temperatures are concerned, June was no better than average here overall and given how poor that month was for much of the time, we were very lucky to even get away with an average month on that front. However, July and August have both been warmer than average, and the summer as a whole has been warmer than average in this part of the world as a result.

Not only did we get away with an average month in June as far as the temperatures are concerned, but we even managed to somehow, get away with a sunnier than average month back then as well after it had looked almost certain at one point in time, as though that month was going to be duller than average.However, July did end up being duller than average overall here. For most of this month, it has also looked as though this month was going to duller than average. However, the recent spell of good weather which we have just had means that sunshine totals now look like coming out at around average at Edinburgh Gogarbank whereas this has been a sunnier than average month overall at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. When you balance that out, this month actually comes out as being slightly sunnier than average overall here in Edinburgh.

As far as this summer is concerned, this summer has actually been sunnier than average at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, but is likely to go down as being duller than average at Edinburgh Gogarbank. Balancing all of that out, we can say that the sunshine totals here in Edinburgh have actually been around average overall.

What has let this summer down badly though has been the amounts of rain which we have been getting. Every single month during this summer has been substantially wetter than average here in Edinburgh with that being the case with this summer as a whole. During this month alone, we have had more than twice the August average rainfall here in Edinburgh overall. This means that two out of the last three summers (including this one) have been wetter than average here in Edinburgh with every single month during those summers being wetter than average. However, the latter part of this month has not been anywhere near as wet as the earlier part of it.

This also happened in August 2017 (although that month wasn't anywhere near as wet overall as this month) and back then, we then ended up going into a dry autumn followed by a dry winter. That particular winter was our coldest winter since the winter of 2012/13 and ended with those Beast from the East events which went on into the early part of that following spring. At the moment, the outlook is rather unsettled on the latest model output which I have seen but then, someone on the MO thread has mentioned that the ECM has started to take on a more settled note. That then makes what I have just said above about the period from August 2017 until the spring of 2018 very interesting indeed because could it be that we might end up with a repeat of all of that this time?

In any case though, there are three main pointers for how I determine whether or not, any particular summer has been a decent one. In my books, the best possible summer is one where it is warmer, sunnier and drier than average. On that note, this summer passed the temperature test quite well, but has failed miserably on the rainfall part of that. With sunshine totals during this summer coming out at around average, that is a neutral factor when it comes to determining whether or not, it has been a decent summer overall. Bringing all of these together, this actually comes out as a draw which means that this summer has been neither decent nor poor overall, and has basically just been an average summer overall (albeit one with a lot of extreme swings within it). This means that if I was mark this summer out of ten right now, I would currently give it around 5/10.

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Manston latest

Mean max 23.5.  Mean 18.6c (+0.9) Rain - only 46mm. Sunshine 187 hours.  Apart from sunshine, very respectable.

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Manston latest

Mean max 23.5.  Mean 18.6c (+0.9) Rain - only 46mm. Sunshine 187 hours.  Apart from sunshine, very respectable.

I like your simple index WI. I suppose I'm about half way between Eastbourne and Yeovilton, in both -tudinal axes. I was surprised to see that at the latter, 2018 failed to outperform 2006.

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