Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about.

I thought that too when I looked at this morning's GFS Op and then scrolled through the ensembles. Am I imagiing it or does it look like the most southerly dipping loop of the jet is shifting east a little, with lows a few 100km further N and perhaps a little less frequent in the outlook?

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A lot of turd polishing going on in this thread.
For a summer month, with kids on holiday, the outlook is poor for most for the foreseeable.

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A lot of turd polishing going on in this thread.
For a summer month, with kids on holiday, the outlook is poor for most for the foreseeable.

Agreed.

In Scotland, the kids will return to school late next week, but there doesn't look to be any improvement in the weather in the offing from the models for after they return, which has sometimes happened in the past.

I guess that it was probably a bit much to expect this summer to be as generally good as that of last year, even allowing for the poorer August last year. However this summer has never got close to last year, even with the all-time highest temperature record being beaten a couple of weeks ago.

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A lot of turd polishing going on in this thread.
For a summer month, with kids on holiday, the outlook is poor for most for the foreseeable.

And of course the foreseeable is not really that long.

We'll be out and about with the children; they're not interested if it's 20 or 30 degrees. In the South, the outlook has plenty of windows of dry weather in the models. 

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All time record wasn’t beaten I don’t believe...?

The summer has been very pleasant this year so far, it started early (We don’t measure summer be school holidays) which is always welcome. A period of low pressure and unsettled weather is not ideal, but we’re better getting some rain than none for weeks on end.

The forecast is not looking that bad at all for the weekend in middle England/east anglia compared to what we had been lead to expect.

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All time record wasn’t beaten I don’t believe...?

The summer has been very pleasant this year so far, it started early (We don’t measure summer be school holidays) which is always welcome. A period of low pressure and unsettled weather is not ideal, but we’re better getting some rain than none for weeks on end.

The forecast is not looking that bad at all for the weekend in middle England/east anglia compared to what we had been lead to expect.

Not looking bad, apart from the gales throughout Saturday in England.

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It's looking like high pressure won't be too far from the south of England from midweek next week so it's not looking too bad down here. Much more unsettled further north though.

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All time record wasn’t beaten I don’t believe...?

Not in Scotland, but I assume David was talking about the UK record.

In the south, a wet week to come next week but then possibly signs of drying out a bit in the third week of August? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I'm off work for two weeks from the 19th so let's hope so 

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Not in Scotland, but I assume David was talking about the UK record.

In the south, a wet week to come next week but then possibly signs of drying out a bit in the third week of August? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I'm off work for two weeks from the 19th so let's hope so 

Looking back, I agree that David was probably talking about the UK record here. It is also true there were no records broken as far as Scotland as a whole is concerned. However, that doesn't mean that no local records were broken within Scotland itself and indeed, that did happen here in Edinburgh where we had our own all time highest ever temperature of 31.6°C which was recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank on that day.

However, that all seems like a distant memory now when you consider just how wet and miserable it has now become in this part of the world. Meanwhile and and back on topic, the outlook isn't looking all that much better as far as I can see, at least as far as the short term model output is concerned. The last time that I checked, there were a few glimmers of hope that we could see a bit of an improvement towards the end of the month, but that is only in the very unreliable time frame.

 

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You’re just being pedantic. I stated pretty clearly that Friday will be nice once the early rain has moved away. 

correct. In fact it hasn’t rained one drop here east of the meridian. It’s been very warm and unless this next system swerves 20 miles east I’ll be watering the garden yet again when I return from my very warm mountain bike ride in Epping Forest. 

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Not looking bad, apart from the gales throughout Saturday in England.

 

if I’d listened to the usual doom mongerors on TWO, I’d have been huddled in my woolly jumper all week. As it is, most days have been fine, warm even. Next week looks usable. All in all a decent summer regardless of the hyperbole.

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And just as I write that the sun comes back out as the latest system tracks west - again.

The only people who love this weather are the bonus-hungry c-suite at Thames Water.

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Current depression is 985mb - and now the prospect of two separate 980mb LP, on Sun 18th and Thu 22nd (GFS 0z), cntred over the Highlands and the Hebrides respectively. For the determined optimists, the weather in the south isn't too bad in between these episodes (though Fax shows a quickly-clearing front this Wed)

ECM has a flabbier depression further S on the 18th

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Some positive signals growingfor the BH weekend & ergo last week of month. Here's the GFS ENS mean max T forecast:

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Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about.

I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range.

Some positive signals growingfor the BH weekend & ergo last week of month. Here's the GFS ENS mean max T forecast:

 

Triffic. 

Temps in the 60s for the majority of the country.

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I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range.

It doesn't help that FV3 has a widespread cool bias of 1-3*C (varies with location). Mad thing is, this was acknowledged by NOAA on its release, having been reduced but not eradicated (it used to be even more extreme in it's 'parallel' (pre-operational) form, which we saw lead to some very teasing output last winter!).

This is such a pain given that the majority of weather apps, for example, use FV3 data.

 

p.s. FV3 is what I now call GFS, since it had its core replaced with that of the FV3 model (its successor).

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 I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range.

I remember posting one of the charts you refer to but that post was drawing attention to the really cold pool over Russia which is only now beginning to disperse, not conditions in the UK?

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Ensembles looking like a change is on the way for the second half of the month maybe? Very little rain signal in the latter part of the GFS down here.

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Ensembles looking like a change is on the way for the second half of the month maybe? Very little rain signal in the latter part of the GFS down here.

Indeed, later on only just a few runs with rainfall but keep watching, those wet runs have large amounts. The synoptics also suggesting a warm BH weekend though ens yet to come on board for anything exceptional.

In the meantime, the fax chart for Wednesday looks really wet for England and Wales (hope the Scottish border gets spared - they're having more than enough at the moment while it's still quite dry here) and the depression on Sunday next looks a certainty, though it's location varies between GFS (N of Scotland) and ECM (from NI into England)

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