I'm sure one of these was posted back end of July claiming same thing, and yet August has started warm and at times very warm so far, and with average rainfall. I mean even today +50mph winds its still managed 21C which is within the average range.

Spot on. 

GEFS seem to be spotting another heatwave in about 10 to 13 days time. It's very good at this with both the late June and July heat it started picking it up at about the same time out. Here's hoping. 

GEFS seem to be spotting another heatwave in about 10 to 13 days time. It's very good at this with both the late June and July heat it started picking it up at about the same time out. Here's hoping. 

I only hope that if there is another heatwave, it lasts a bit longer and does not contain the awful humidity that the late July one did.

Makes me wonder if we're heading for the September banker. At the moment it looks like more settled weather will return later this month and as we've seen in recent years September is often more akin to a continuation of the summer than the start of the autumn. 

 

 

Spot on. 

No, it is actually factually incorrect regardless of whether you agree or not. The outlook shown at the end of July was generally unsettled but warm. The unsettled weather was mostly for the northern half of the country but affecting all areas at times. Not my opinion and people can check if they wish.

The current outlook shows things warming back up again after the cooler few days coming up. With a predominantly SWly or westerly flow in the midterm I would expect the regions that normally do well in such a setup to have some pretty decent weather at times but areas to the NW to be less fortunate.

Up here tomorrow t850s are expected to be about 7°C below average and about 5°C below in the south, however how that translates to surface/t2m values is a different matter. Some sunshine and light winds or cloud and rain will outweigh that. 

 

I only hope that if there is another heatwave, it lasts a bit longer and does not contain the awful humidity that the late July one did.

 I am afraid having a heatwave and pleasant low humidity in the U.K. is rather having your cake and eating it.

 

 I am afraid having a heatwave and pleasant low humidity in the U.K. is rather having your cake and eating it.

We manged it last year. Even though the period from early/mid-May through to almost the end of July last year was very warm/hot, I recall little by way of really humid weather and certainly not in the same abundance as has been the case in the past few weeks.

 

I only hope that if there is another heatwave, it lasts a bit longer and does not contain the awful humidity that the late July one did.

I found the humidity levels over the entirety of this summer to be particularly woeful. 

Much the same outlook as yesterday. LP dominating this week, with centres near UK on Wed (England), Sun (off N Sctland, GFS; further S and deeper, ECM). ECM also brings up a further LP from the west next week.

GFS  0z suggests a pulse of warm air and HP for the end of the BH weekend, but the ensembles are literally lukewarm on this.

There are hints of High pressure in the models, especially for Bank Holiday, I know a bit far out. Also on some models the N. Blocking easing off. 

There are hints of High pressure in the models, especially for Bank Holiday, I know a bit far out. Also on some models the N. Blocking easing off. 

Agreed. The disturbed weather continuing for a week or so, but with next weekend's depression arriving a bit sooner (i.e. Friday) that was originally forecast. For the BH weekend, distinctly warmer though only a few runs go as far as hot; and drier, especially in the south. ECM has something of a thundery low over France just before that (T+240) which needs watching

Signs of drier weather later this month and still some very warm runs appearing. Before then it's a mixed picture.

PS: I changed the scripts yesterday so the GFS op is plotted at 6 rather than 12 hour intervals. Doesn't make a a lot of difference but the charts look a little smoother.    

Signs of drier weather later this month and still some very warm runs appearing. Before then it's a mixed picture.

PS: I changed the scripts yesterday so the GFS op is plotted at 6 rather than 12 hour intervals. Doesn't make a a lot of difference but the charts look a little smoother.    

I'm pleased to see that, despite the unseasonable weather, at least the snow row count is still zer!

This is the link to keep an eye on.  Nothing since June 10th. How much longer can that continue for?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?type=daily&location=Inverness#Inverness

6Z GFS op run gets increasingly warm/hot in the south towards the end, although not a huge amount of support from the GEFS.

Indeed. The ensemble average has actually dropped for that period since yesterday. The reason for this is an increasing divergence amongst the members from the 21st onwards. We need more members to follow the Op run before there can be any real confidence. 

Synoptics look good for BH weekend with HP at least to start with, and a greater number of above seasonal average temps in the ens runs. Sporadic rainfalli n some ens so perhaps a shower or two

For the nearer future, this weekend's depression following a track off NW Scotland; windy but not much rain in the NW, rather more in the south presumably from the fronts shown dragging their heels in the fax chart late Friday/early Sat