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Offline richardabdn  
#481 Posted : 10 August 2019 08:44:34(UTC)
richardabdn

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Location: Aberdeen

About the only thing that irritates and annoys me more than having to endure this unprecedented run of awful summers is abject nonsense that people's expectations are too high  

Of course it's not unreasonable to expect some settled weather at some point during a British Summer. You don't even need to see stats to know just how much of a deterioration in summer there has been since 2007. For goodness sake only two out of 13 have been drier than average. It's a run of wet summers without precedent.

This summer is awful and getting worse by the day. What makes it even more depressing is that May was diabolical too and we haven't had one decent warm, sunny and dry month something even repulsive years like 2011 (April), 2012 (March) and 2014 (July) managed. So far this summer there hasn't been a dry spell of longer than four days duration. Even 2012 had a six day dry spell  Looks like dry periods will be counted in hours not days for the forseeable as well.

Every month since May has had above average rainfall and above average rain days and only June has managed to reach average sunshine. The way August is going it will be the worst of the lot. The last six Augusts have been fairly mediocre. Not bad but not that great either. This one is completely different - on track to record 2008 levels of sunshine with far more rain. It's vile beyond words.

It's the appalling weekends that are the most depressing. As bad as 2007 and 2012 since the beginning of July. Just weekend after weekend of grey rubbish. Today yet another Saturday of soul destroying overcast gunk. This follows on from a completely sunless washout day yesterday and there has been very little sun since Tuesday with copious rainfall. An utterly utterly dire spell of weather that shows no sign of relenting

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

The Unprecedented Snow Drought Ended on 9th February 2021 after 2889 days without a 10cm snow depth

Offline Gusty  
#482 Posted : 10 August 2019 09:20:55(UTC)
Gusty

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Its been a fairly good summer for Scotland, northern England and south. 2019 was never going to match 2018.

Wayyyy too much negativity on this forum these days.

I do wonder what some of our western and northern members expect from a normal summer in a temperate climate facing 2000 miles of ocean ? Or indeed all of our expectations when it comes to winter.

Apart from some slow moving thunderstorms, leading to flooding temperatures have been reasonably good and winds until now have been light. Eastern Scotland has not been plagued with the dreaded SE'ly muck, indeed Aberdeen from where I'm sitting has seen a number of very useable warm and sunny days with temps in the low 20's.

For many parts of England there was a period of 4 weeks without much in the way of rain.

We've all seen a thunderstorm, its never been excessively hot (apart from the 25/7 record smasher of course). 

Admittedly its turned a bit rubbish now but it is August after all and expectations should be adjusted to accept this based on recent Augusts. Any fine weather that occurs should be treated with positivity and gratitude. 

 

Edited by user 10 August 2019 09:44:03(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline doctormog  
#483 Posted : 10 August 2019 10:04:03(UTC)
doctormog

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It has not been a bad summer here overall. There haven’t been prolonged settled periods but there has been decent warmth (albeit often humid) and no prolonged unsettled periods. I would put the summer to this point into the “decent” category.

I do fear though that August (here) will be disappointing given the last few days and current outlook. I suspect it will be more “useable” in some parts of the UK.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#484 Posted : 10 August 2019 11:46:23(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Originally Posted by: richardabdn Go to Quoted Post

About the only thing that irritates and annoys me more than having to endure this unprecedented run of awful summers is abject nonsense that people's expectations are too high  

 

Do you mean that it's nonsense that people say others' expectations are too high? I agree. 

If you mean you're annoyed by people's expectations being too high, then don't forget that summer 2019 in S England won't have a similar fingerprint to summer 2019 in NE Scotland. June and July here both turned round disappointing starts and lifted their CETs nicely at the end- unexpectedly as far as the punters went. August still has 21 days to go, at least 2 weeks of which should be considered unaccounted for in the best of the models.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Tim A  
#485 Posted : 10 August 2019 12:45:39(UTC)
Tim A

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Today is a pretty horrendous day here. Heavy , at times torrential showers and hardly any sun.
Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

Offline Saint Snow  
#486 Posted : 10 August 2019 13:05:51(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 Go to Quoted Post

 

July 2013 and June/July 2018 were exceptional - July 2013 was one of the top 10 warmest Julys on record. Summer 2018 was one of the warmest summers full stop. Do you seriously expect that every year? I mean, really.. 

Like it or lump it but this summer is much closer to a normal summer than 2013, 2014 or 2018. 

 

You're continuing with your aggressive tone. Chill, you muppet. 

I've lived through 47 summers so have a pretty good idea of what makes a good, bad or average summer so less of the patronising.

The summers of 13, 14 & 18 were good (overall, but the Augusts were average/poor). That's 50% of the last 6 summers.

The summers of 2007-2012 were bad. 

Before that, I remember dry & mainly sunny spells of at least 3-4 weeks in a summer being fairly common - perhaps that same 50% of summers. My expectations are not particularly high, believe me.

That sets the context of this summer. June was, for much of it, a washout. July had brief heatwaves (annoyingly falling largely mid-week when we were all at work) but never any prolonged settled spell) yet on the whole a decent month. August has been a washout so far (I calculate we've had rain fall atvsome point on 8 or 9 days out of 10 so far) and the outlook is similarly unsettled. It's been warmer than conditions would suggest, though.

Overall then, a poor-to-average summer in this region - and I suspect in a few others, too. I'd estimate that we've had rain falling at some point in each day (24 hour period) on upwards of 60% of days. If you have had a better summer, then good for you. But please don't you or anyone else try to tell me that here and substantial parts of the country have had a decent or good summer.

 

 

“Never mind life expectancy, never mind cancer outcomes - look at wage growth” Bozo Johnson

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Saint Snow  
#487 Posted : 10 August 2019 13:09:45(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Its been a fairly good summer for Scotland, northern England and south. 

 

That's simply not true.

For most of northern England, at least the western half Scotland, most of Wales, the north and perhaps west Midlands, and a lot of the SW, it's been a poor-to-average summer.

A few highlights in July,  but otherwise mostly unsettled.

“Never mind life expectancy, never mind cancer outcomes - look at wage growth” Bozo Johnson

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline KevBrads1  
#488 Posted : 10 August 2019 13:21:24(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

I look back with fondness at summer 1990; although June was poor, there were countless days of river swimming and beach visits.

Yet the CET was only 16.17.

For this summer to achieve that August would need a CET of around 16.8.

It's looking around 18C for the first third (pre-adjustment). So it seems like a fair chance to me. 

Locally, from 22nd June to today, a period of exactly 7 weeks, only one day has failed to exceed 20°C- that was 19th July(and only two, excluding today, failed to each 21°C) . I personally will remember summer 2019 as a good one, so long as I can avoid comparing it with last year.

Summer 1990, (June to August), IMO, is as overrated as summer 1994 is underrated. The Manchester Summer Index rates 1994 as the better of the two, 240 to 229 for 1990.

 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

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Offline Gusty  
#489 Posted : 10 August 2019 17:10:03(UTC)
Gusty

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 That's simply not true.

For most of northern England, at least the western half Scotland, most of Wales, the north and perhaps west Midlands, and a lot of the SW, it's been a poor-to-average summer.

A few highlights in July,  but otherwise mostly unsettled.

Kev's Manchester Summer index was 195 by the end of July Saint.

In comparison to other years it has already exceeded 2007.2008,2009,2010, 2011, 2012, 2015,2016 and 2017.

I don't live where you do but those stats suggest this is not an average to poor summer. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline Saint Snow  
#490 Posted : 10 August 2019 17:53:03(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

Kev's Manchester Summer index was 195 by the end of July Saint.

In comparison to other years it has already exceeded 2007.2008,2009,2010, 2011, 2012, 2015,2016 and 2017.

I don't live where you do but those stats suggest this is not an average to poor summer. 

 

Kevin's MSI is generally great - but, as I'm sure Kevin would concede, can be a bit of a blunt instrument. This summer's score will have been boosted for the past few weeks by high temperatures, which have been a bit wasted when most days have seen rain at some point.

And it's the frequency of rain that has been the key to how poor this summer has been overall. We've been trying to plan a party since the end of May, but not once have we had the confidence to go for it a week or two in advance.

A whole slew of events have been cancelled or postponed from June onwards, from my youngest's final sports day at primary school (thankfully rearranged to July) to festivals and outdoor shows.

If Kevin had the stats, I'm sure he'd corroborate just how many days this summer have had rain. 

And I'm equally sure the NW contingent will agree that this summer has been somewhere between distinctly average and poor.

 

Edit - even using the MSI, this summer sits in the bottom half of all summers assessed. And I might have missed it, but I couldn't see 2015 below this year.

Edited by user 10 August 2019 17:56:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

“Never mind life expectancy, never mind cancer outcomes - look at wage growth” Bozo Johnson

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline KevBrads1  
#491 Posted : 10 August 2019 17:58:49(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

If Kevin had the stats, I'm sure he'd corroborate just how many days this summer have had rain. 

 

40th day today.

Temperatures haven't been too bad since the solstice, that has actually has helped to keep the index up 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

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Offline David M Porter  
#492 Posted : 10 August 2019 18:00:05(UTC)
David M Porter

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In some ways the weather recently has reminded me of the mid-late part of the summer of 2004, i.e a fair amount of warmth but a distinct lack of properly settled weather and sunshine.

August 2004, from what I recall of it, was a warm month overall but it ended up being one of the wettest Augusts on record, and IIRC at the time it was the wettest August overall in the UK since the 1950s. It was around the middle of that month that saw the sudden and dramatic floodng in Boscastle in Cornwall when a thunderstorm dumped an enormous amount of rain in the place one afternoon. There were instances of flooding in a numbers of places in Scotland during that month as well. From what I recall, the UK was affected by two or three ex-tropical storms or hurricanes during that month.

Boris Johnson: "Take it on the chin" will haunt him big time at the next General Election.
Offline Caz  
#493 Posted : 10 August 2019 18:03:29(UTC)
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Today hasn’t been as bad here as it could have been!  Quite a few brief showers but also some sunny spells, in which we managed 22c. Windy this afternoon as expected but nothing damaged!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Offline Saint Snow  
#494 Posted : 10 August 2019 18:07:08(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Today hasn’t been as bad here as it could have been!  Quite a few brief showers but also some sunny spells, in which we managed 22c. Windy this afternoon as expected but nothing damaged!  

 

We topped out at 17.5c

Frequent showers ranging from drizzle to downpours.

Strong and very gusty wind. I've been concerned about the gazebo over my hot tub.

Feels like October. 

“Never mind life expectancy, never mind cancer outcomes - look at wage growth” Bozo Johnson

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Saint Snow  
#495 Posted : 10 August 2019 18:08:11(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

 

40th day today.

Temperatures haven't been too bad since the solstice, that has actually has helped to keep the index up 

 

Thanks, Kevin 

I calculate 57% of days IYBY, close to my estimate of 60%.

 

“Never mind life expectancy, never mind cancer outcomes - look at wage growth” Bozo Johnson

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline David M Porter  
#496 Posted : 10 August 2019 18:09:11(UTC)
David M Porter

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

 

And I'm equally sure the NW contingent will agree that this summer has been somewhere between distinctly average and poor.

 

 

That would be my summation of this summer to date, Saint.

For me, warmth on its own does not make a summer a good one. There has to be a decent amount of reasonably long-lasting dry and sunny weather when one can be pretty sure that it will stay dry all day to go with it. Where I live, there have been very few days going all the way back to the start of June when that has been the case. The only time this summer when the weather has come close to the type of set-up that led to the sustained hot and dry spell of last summer was in late June/early July, when for a few days the models were indicating that the Azores High would move in and build quite strongly over the UK in the first week of July. Alas this did not come to pass, as the high did not build over the UK to the extent that the models had originally thought and pressure remained fairly high over the Greenland region.

Boris Johnson: "Take it on the chin" will haunt him big time at the next General Election.
Offline Gusty  
#497 Posted : 10 August 2019 18:59:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 Kevin's MSI is generally great - but, as I'm sure Kevin would concede, can be a bit of a blunt instrument. This summer's score will have been boosted for the past few weeks by high temperatures, which have been a bit wasted when most days have seen rain at some point.

And it's the frequency of rain that has been the key to how poor this summer has been overall. We've been trying to plan a party since the end of May, but not once have we had the confidence to go for it a week or two in advance.

A whole slew of events have been cancelled or postponed from June onwards, from my youngest's final sports day at primary school (thankfully rearranged to July) to festivals and outdoor shows.

If Kevin had the stats, I'm sure he'd corroborate just how many days this summer have had rain. 

And I'm equally sure the NW contingent will agree that this summer has been somewhere between distinctly average and poor.

 Edit - even using the MSI, this summer sits in the bottom half of all summers assessed. And I might have missed it, but I couldn't see 2015 below this year.

Cheers Saint. Thanks for the clarification. I'm building a picture of a summer that has not really disappointed in terms of temperature but convection has played a big part determining local and regional perspective. 

With that amount of rain frequency you are fully justified in calling this poor to average summer, apologies to you and my NW England chums. 

Edited by user 10 August 2019 19:01:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline Caz  
#498 Posted : 10 August 2019 19:10:07(UTC)
Caz

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

Thanks, Kevin 

I calculate 57% of days IYBY, close to my estimate of 60%.

  Crikey!  No wonder you say summer in your area hasn’t been good!  People do tend to forget the weather in their own back yard isn’t representative of the whole UK though and they can only make judgements from their own experiences.  

I can honestly say that since the end of June, we’ve had very little rain here, lots of sunshine and temps at least in the mid 20’s.  Even yesterday was warm and sunny as the rain cleared before 9am.  Summer has definitely been good here!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Offline Gusty  
#499 Posted : 10 August 2019 19:18:27(UTC)
Gusty

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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

  Crikey!  No wonder you say summer in your area hasn’t been good!  People do tend to forget the weather in their own back yard isn’t representative of the whole UK though and they can only make judgements from their own experiences.  

I can honestly say that since the end of June, we’ve had very little rain here, lots of sunshine and temps at least in the mid 20’s.  Even yesterday was warm and sunny as the rain cleared before 9am.  Summer has definitely been good here!

Its a shocker the difference 250 miles makes NW to SE in this country. I admittedly struggle to get my head around it. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline Caz  
#500 Posted : 10 August 2019 19:20:51(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 Cheers Saint. Thanks for the clarification. I'm building a picture of a summer that has not really disappointed in terms of temperature but convection has played a big part determining local and regional perspective. 

With that amount of rain frequency you are fully justified in calling this poor to average summer, apologies to you and my NW England chums. 

I think the fact we haven’t had any prolonged settled spells will mean greater variations!  I’m pretty sure our regional rainfall totals will be far more than our local totals.  On several occasions rain has been within five miles yet it’s missed us completely.  Another point that affects perception is when it rains at night and it doesn’t affect your daytime activities and doesn’t reduce sunshine hours. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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