Well it’s a good job Boardmasters was cancelled!! The wind is now gusting over 50mph and isn’t expected to peak until the early hours in excess of 60mph.
We have had bands of squally horizontal rain albeit with no thunder all afternoon.

The only problem is that sometimes the warnings cover a huge area unnecessarily probably because of H&S. (the just in case argumen)

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Before condemning today's warnings for rain, people should look at the rainfall radar for a wider area. Thunderstorms were forecast locally, not universally.

We've been out at Arundel this afternoon, beautifully sunny and warm. So the MetO were wrong? Not if you lived near Winchester or St Albans. In fact, I was listening to the travel news on the radio on the way home, and around 4 pm there was mention of traffic being slowed on the M27 at Fareham due to heavy rain (only 25 miles away) and ferry services to the Isle of Wight being disrupted .

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/gcp3nqsgd#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1565325000&zoom=8&lon=-0.77&lat=50.84

(a time-limited link going back only 6 hours, don't bother with it after, say, 9 pm)

Tomorrow's gales? We shall see.

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Well it’s a good job Boardmasters was cancelled!! The wind is now gusting over 50mph and isn’t expected to peak until the early hours in excess of 60mph.
We have had bands of squally horizontal rain albeit with no thunder all afternoon.

The only problem is that sometimes the warnings cover a huge area unnecessarily probably because of H&S. (the just in case argumen)

Does anyone else find it rather ironic that a music festival related to surfing is cancelled due to high winds?

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Before condemning today's warnings for rain, people should look at the rainfall radar for a wider area. Thunderstorms were forecast locally, not universally.

We've been out at Arundel this afternoon, beautifully sunny and warm. So the MetO were wrong? Not if you lived near Winchester or St Albans. In fact, I was listening to the travel news on the radio on the way home, and around 4 pm there was mention of traffic being slowed on the M27 at Fareham due to heavy rain (only 25 miles away) and ferry services to the Isle of Wight being disrupted .

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/gcp3nqsgd#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1565325000&zoom=8&lon=-0.77&lat=50.84

(a time-limited link going back only 6 hours, don't bother with it after, say, 9 pm)

Tomorrow's gales? We shall see.

Spot on!

I think people are judging on their own weather and forgetting these events could be miles away!  It’s the event organiser’s duty to do provide risk assessments in their management plan and that includes provision and contingencies for any kind of weather.  If there are weather warnings that could impact that event in any way and put people at risk, they must be headed.  

I’ve done event management and I’ve grumbled at the ever increasing rules and regulations, licences, certificates and formal permissions needed but I do see why these are needed.  If the public is at risk, you as event manager are responsible.  Imagine being responsible for a few thousand people!  What if one was to sustain injuries due to your neglect, which includes ignoring weather warnings!

The weather might not turn out to be as bad as the warnings suggest but they might!  It’s that ‘might’ that makes the decision for you!  

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 Does anyone else find it rather ironic that a music festival related to surfing is cancelled due to high winds?

The old maxim of it being possible to have too much of a good thing?

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Or it seems that the general public now lack common sense but expect to be spoon fed the most accurate forecast for their back yard BBQ right down to the minute from a week away, and yet information overload can be just as much of a problem as a lack of it.

At the end of the day, weather forecasts - be it in the form of warnings or just standard forecasts - are only for guidance. Nothing more, nothing less. 

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Or it seems that the general public now lack common sense but expect to be spoon fed the most accurate forecast for their back yard BBQ right down to the minute from a week away, and yet information overload can be just as much of a problem as a lack of it.

At the end of the day, weather forecasts - be it in the form of warnings or just standard forecasts - are only for guidance. Nothing more, nothing less. 

Exactly Ian!  People are blinkered into only seeing their own locality and selective about what they hear and read.  Forecasts are about probability, not statements of fact and should be taken as guidance.

As DEW says, forecasts and warnings generally relate to ‘some risk locally’ rather than ‘this will happen universally’.  We’ve had quite a number of warnings here this summer and few have really applied to my back yard. Neighbouring Lincolnshire and Derbyshire have had severe flooding, while we remained dry but a shift in the weather of fifty miles or so would have been a different story. 

You’d expect people with a weather interest to understand all this.  We know forecasts are projections of probability that rely on conditions falling into place.  We know that conditions vary across the country and we know weather patterns can change.  Yet we still complain if they don’t verify in our own back yards. 

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Or it seems that the general public now lack common sense but expect to be spoon fed the most accurate forecast for their back yard BBQ right down to the minute from a week away, and yet information overload can be just as much of a problem as a lack of it.

At the end of the day, weather forecasts - be it in the form of warnings or just standard forecasts - are only for guidance. Nothing more, nothing less. 

Correct, Ian - it seems Common Sense is a rare commodity, but a lot of this nonsense stems from our litigious compensation culture. Today everyone organising an event has a duty of care which requires us to have taken reasonable steps to consider the risks and address them, and to be able to show this has been done.

I have always considered it a good thing for children to learn to deal with risk, because if they can't do risky things safely they are less likely to live safely. It is a survival skill. A life skill. Risk-taking well handled can be fun.

As Arthur Ransome puts it: "Better drowned than duffers if not duffers wont drown."

Roger

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Tomorrow's gales? We shall see.

78 mph gust at the Needles overnight

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One of the problems is weather apps. When showing a forecast they don’t just show an area, the meto app shows your street name you are in and unfortunately in these times people think the forecast is that accurate

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78 mph gust at the Needles overnight

A ridiculously exposed station of course, but that's still a very impressive gust for August.

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One of the problems is weather apps. When showing a forecast they don’t just show an area, the meto app shows your street name you are in and unfortunately in these times people think the forecast is that accurate

That’s a good point. Although the Met office app does give greater detail if people can be bothered to look and as I said earlier, we’re sometimes selective in what we read. 

My Met Office app currently has a wide area yellow warning of wind covering the whole of the country South of the Humber but my local forecast shows wind strength of only 24mph.  However, if I scroll down to wind details it shows gusts of up to 45mph.  I don’t live in a particularly exposed area though and the warning does specify ‘exposed and coastal areas’ of which I’m neither, so a bit of afore mentioned common sense suggests I’m not likely to be the worst affected. 

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People may complain about cancellation of events, but what is so fun about being at a particular event (like a tea party) in howling gales and driving torrential downpours? 

 

A ridiculously exposed station [the Needles] of course, but that's still a very impressive gust for August.

Inland at Chichester, not so far away,the gusts were forecast in the low 40s mph. That seems about right, looking at the Beaufort criteria "twigs broken off trees" - force 8, 39-46mph

Next stage up, force 9, includes "damage to canopies" so perhaps the organisers of outdoor events with marquees etc were wise to cancel for the day. That includes our local Chilli Fiesta which will resume tomorrow, Sunday.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

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To my mind the weather warnings issued in recent days seem entirely appropriate....strong winds in the summer with so many events under canvas taking place can be deadly..we’ve seen tragedies in recent years with bouncy castles not being properly secured...You also have to apply some common sense with warnings relating to flooding, snowfall..etc etc..As Dew will testify, a weather warning of heavy snow in West Sussex, 9/10 times doesn’t mean Chichester will be cut off and under a foot of snow😛😛

It's events like this one that tend to be in festival organisers' minds:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14586001

That same story references a stage collapse in the US under strong winds the week before, which killed five people.

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If I had my way, I would stop giving out official yellow warnings for this area on a Saturday for thunderstorms which inevitably, just never end up occurring on this particular day. This is now the second Saturday in a row where such a warning has been given for this area and once again, we just have clear blue skies with plenty of warm sunshine, only a handful of fair weather clouds in the distance and absolutely nothing showing up on either the rain radar or lightning detector map for miles on end from here.

It was the same last Saturday as well with the only difference being that last Saturday was at least much cloudier at times than today with even the odd spot of rain threatening earlier on. That was an occasion where these storms just didn't happen here and I'm struggling to see where on Earth, they are going to come from this time.

I take the point which has been mentioned here that yellow warnings are based on what might happen, and the fact that it is that word "might" which is the most important thing here. However, expectations do tend to be based on actual experience and when these warnings keep on getting put out, without any of the type of weather actually happening for which those warnings are for, people are increasingly not going to be expecting that type of weather to actually happen when these warnings are issued. The natural response then is to eventually completely ignore such warnings over time because if the type of weather which these warnings are for isn't actually happening, what is the point in even paying attention to those warnings in the first place?

Once that happens, these warnings then become a complete waste of time, and that is when such a system then becomes flawed as a result, by a warning system which just doesn't work as intended.

 

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The Met Office warning system is excellent. I am sure it has saved many lives and prevented a lot of hardship and financial losses since its introduction.

As a forum of weather enthusiasts who understand the potential of nature's fury versus the balance of probability and risk we shouldn't really be having this discussion....should we ? 

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People may complain about cancellation of events, but what is so fun about being at a particular event (like a tea party) in howling gales and driving torrential downpours? 

None whatsoever, neither for visitors or those who perform, exhibit or trade.  I daresay the public would complain if an event went ahead in such adverse conditions, that’s if anyone turned out at all.  But the fact that the warnings were given well in advance means less disruption all round.    

If an event can be cancelled a few days in advance it saves a lot of hassle in setting up and a lot of money in last minute preparations, such as a food outlet ordering fresh produce to cater for a few hundred people.  Most attractions and performers have insurance against cancelled events, so the event organisers wouldn’t have to foot that bill.  Also, wherever there are extra people, there’s extra traffic!

I had to cancel a summer carnival one year even though the forecast was good for the day of the event.  But it had been extremely wet for a few days previous and the decision was made due to the fields used for car parking being waterlogged. What would I have done with hundreds of cars otherwise?

On another occasion, I had to cancel a Christmas market evening held on streets closed to traffic for the event.  Three days before the event, the diverted bus route along untreated back roads was icy, with more freezing weather forecast, so I made the decision.  That was a good call, as we had deep snow on the intended event day, so I didn’t get any stick from disappointed members of the public!  I seem to think that was December 3rd 2010. 

The point of my ramblings is that there are an awful lot of things to consider, not least disappointing the public.  Nobody wants to waste all the time and effort organising something, to then have to cancel it because of something you can’t control!

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100% yes.

Great thread.

Hyperbole over the weather is the modern disease. TWO is bad enough but the malaise is also affecting the pros. I blame the internet!

Today was supposed to be thunderstorms and tomorrow gales.

I’m sitting in the pub garden drinking cold lager. Been mountain biking all day in temps in the mid 20s.

Forecasts are becoming utterly risk averse nonsense.

But that was always the forecast for the far SE, wasn't it? Weather warnings do at least focus on key areas of risk.

We had a pleasant, warm and humid day despite persistent rain forecast two days earlier; the rain  came- it's just that it cleared by morning, so the timing was out.

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