Downpour
07 August 2019 20:38:05

Originally Posted by: Weathermac 


 


Yes although it has been quite warm so far this month it has also been quite wet and likely to get wetter over the next 10 days or so .


We cant buy a good August lately .



 


august been pretty decent so far. Plenty of warm sunshine with decent showers from time to time to liven up the gardens. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
07 August 2019 21:04:55

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Friday looks good after midday. Weekend also looking very pleasant. Funny old world.


Yes, it looks great apart from the gale and rain warnings (which reflect the output nicely). 


 


Downpour
07 August 2019 22:41:52

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Yes, it looks great apart from the gale and rain warnings (which reflect the output nicely). 


 



 


looks fine down here TBH


Chingford
London E4
147ft
roadrunnerajn
08 August 2019 06:05:06
This morning GFS can be summed up with one word...YUK
It’s only one chart but it has another deep depression crossing the British isles mid next week and a very mixed picture there after.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 August 2019 06:20:02

... and more so than yesterday, particularly wetter in the south than GFS suggested yesterday.


We have companions in misfortune across northern Europe as we process 'our' depressions and export them.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
08 August 2019 07:46:20

GFS ensembles for the southern third of the UK show a gradual rise in pressure over the next 10 days or so. The latest ECM also doesn't look to bad for southerners with the Azores doing its best to nudge in at times.  Talk of early Autumn is exaggerated at least for the south. The outlook really isn't that bad for anywhere south and east of a line from about Weymouth to Hull.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
sunny coast
08 August 2019 08:04:19

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


 


 


Indeed. Yet more utter hyperbolic guff. Meanwhile, off to the Essex coast tomorrow for ‘autumnal’ 25c maxima and 12 hours of sunshine.


apologies this wasnt meant to be a provocative post in any way it was just a light hearted post referring to the upcoming spell and saying that it is nothing unusual for August . August can very often produce wet and very windy conditions and i just quoted a few examples from memory. August camping washouts are part of british holidays that is all. I can recall many such occasions in cornwall. Yes so far this month has been great here and indeed most of the summer. I was not comparing this month to other months you mention. Thats it!

noodle doodle
08 August 2019 08:47:25

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The outlook really isn't that bad for anywhere south and east of a line from about Weymouth to Hull.



Which is, what, about 20% of the landmass of the British Isles? Over the weekend the vast bulk of it is going in the washing machine on the 15 degree wash. More yellow warnings for thunderstorms and rain and maxes below the monthly average temperature. Huzzah :-)

Saint Snow
08 August 2019 09:02:24

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


Which is, what, about 20% of the landmass of the British Isles? Over the weekend the vast bulk of it is going in the washing machine on the 15 degree wash. More yellow warnings for thunderstorms and rain and maxes below the monthly average temperature. Huzzah :-)



 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Darren S
08 August 2019 09:26:40

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


 


Which is, what, about 20% of the landmass of the British Isles? 



About 40% of the population though 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
doctormog
08 August 2019 09:41:14

Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


About 40% of the population though 



So a poor outlook for the majority regardless of how you look at it? 


It looks very wet for some western parts in the coming ten days based on the ECM 00z op run


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20190818-0000z.html


(Yes it will be drier elsewhere etc.)


Hippydave
08 August 2019 09:42:41
One of those look at the models before you read the thread mornings I see. The outlook is undeniably unsettled, with temps generally on the cooler side of average, brief blips aside. As is normal for the UK, whatever season you're in, the worst of the weather will generally be further north but the South won't be immune from some rain and wind at times. It'll be nice in my back garden for several hours is fine as far as such statements go but a bit provocative for those that aren't in your back garden and for whom the outlook is not so rosy🙂 ECM fwiw shows to me a stereotypical late summer/early autumn pattern of ridge/trough with best weather in SE and worst NW although next Thurs depression shifts the weather that bit further south. No doubt some usable late summer weather at times with some less usable, occasionally rubbish stuff too.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Saint Snow
08 August 2019 09:54:27

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


So a poor outlook for the majority regardless of how you look at it? 


It looks very wet for some western parts in the coming ten days based on the ECM 00z op run


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20190818-0000z.html


(Yes it will be drier elsewhere etc.)



 


That map is typical of a wind direction south of westerly. I look for this for my region, where NE Wales/Cheshire/Merseyside/S Lancs are in the rain shadow of Snowdonia, so totals are lower that just a bit east and to the north. A straight westerly (or up to north-westerly) and the map looks very different for here. 


For much of that 2007-2012 era of rubbish summers, the wind flow tended to be far more from the west, which funnelled PPN along the North Wales coast into all of NW England.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
08 August 2019 11:06:17

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


 


Which is, what, about 20% of the landmass of the British Isles? Over the weekend the vast bulk of it is going in the washing machine on the 15 degree wash. More yellow warnings for thunderstorms and rain and maxes below the monthly average temperature. Huzzah :-)



 


Obviously don't disagree with any of that just saying its like a different world here no rain in August  at all so far ground baked hard mid 20s everyday.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
08 August 2019 11:42:57

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


 


Obviously don't disagree with any of that just saying its like a different world here no rain in August  at all so far ground baked hard mid 20s everyday.



 


Indeed. NW/SE split coming - situation normal. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
LeedsLad123
08 August 2019 14:36:40

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Yes, it looks great apart from the gale and rain warnings (which reflect the output nicely). 


 



GFS now showing 25C on Friday here. Much cooler up your way of course.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
doctormog
08 August 2019 15:03:35

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


GFS now showing 25C on Friday here. Much cooler up your way of course.



I didn’t mention temperature, just wind and rain? It’s not a competition you know. 


I never insinuated, stated or implied it would be cold and certainly not further south. It will be unsettled though, not a controversial observation I would have thought, but then again most things seem to be these days. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-08-09 


LeedsLad123
08 August 2019 15:48:17

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


I didn’t mention temperature, just wind and rain? It’s not a competition you know. 


I never insinuated, stated or implied it would be cold and certainly not further south. It will be unsettled though, not a controversial observation I would have thought, but then again most things seem to be these days. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-08-09 



You’re just being pedantic. I stated pretty clearly that Friday will be nice once the early rain has moved away. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
doctormog
08 August 2019 16:27:08

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


You’re just being pedantic. I stated pretty clearly that Friday will be nice once the early rain has moved away. 




 


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2019 06:16:34

Rather cool across Europe over the next couple of weeks. Couple of brief bursts of warmth around the 14th and 18th.


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


Synoptics don't look too bad for the south, but ens have increased their rainfall predictions again today. All very mobile, so grab any windows of opportunity if out and about.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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