The previous thread seems to have died - perhaps it was premature.

Anyway, here's a curiosity - probable development of a tropical storm in the next 5 days, some models say up to hurricane cat 1,  from a disturbance moving off the southern US. This is the opposite direction to the usual one.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Invest-92L-Likely-be-Tropical-Storm-Gulf-Mexico-Saturday?cm_ven=cat6-widget

The Atlantic has been quiet because of an outflow of dust from the Sahara but the eastern Pacific is already up to its third named storm, none of them really dramatic.

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143913.shtml?cone#contents

 

Potential for Hurricane to hit New Orleans 

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143913.shtml?cone#contents

 

Potential for Hurricane to hit New Orleans 

Even if not hurricane (forecast is borderline) 10" rain and a near-record storm surge spell trouble for New Orleans

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The previous thread seems to have died - perhaps it was premature.

Anyway, here's a curiosity - probable development of a tropical storm in the next 5 days, some models say up to hurricane cat 1,  from a disturbance moving off the southern US. This is the opposite direction to the usual one.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Invest-92L-Likely-be-Tropical-Storm-Gulf-Mexico-Saturday?cm_ven=cat6-widget

The Atlantic has been quiet because of an outflow of dust from the Sahara but the eastern Pacific is already up to its third named storm, none of them really dramatic.

 

Been a bit of a dead season so far but still early!!

Meanwhile this storm developing off the coast into the Gulf of Mexico could make landfall as a cat 1 hurricane: - It sort of came out of no where really!!??

 

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Even if not hurricane (forecast is borderline) 10" rain and a near-record storm surge spell trouble for New Orleans

To be precise, the predicted storm surge is quite small, about 5', but the Mississippi is currently in flood with water levels about 16' above datum. Add the two together and you get overtopping - design height is 20'

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Orleans-Achilles-Heel-Hurricane-Storm-Surge-During-Mississippi-River-Flood?cm_ven=cat6-widget

 

 

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Yes the media and meteorologists in the US seems concerned about the potential of this system with quite a bit of flooding already in NOLA.

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Plaquemines parish (the tip of the Mississippi delta) is under a mandatory evacuation order

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-07-10-gulf-coast-barry-preps-louisiana-mississippi-texas

 

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The Weather Channel is reporting that up to two feet of rain are likely in parts of Louisiana as a result of Barry. There are some real concerns about flooding due to the rainfall, storm surge and the unusually high Mississippi River level.

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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barry-Churns-Near-Louisiana-Coast-Massive-Rains-Still-Expected?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Barry forecast to come ashore at about midday GMT, after being delayed by an inflow of dry air. Nevertheless, still expected to make hurricane cat 1 status. Inland there are worries about river flooding as it then slowly travels north with several places in Louisiana in line to smash July rainfall records

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Almost a Cat 1, but the wind is not the issue

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It was a hurricane for 3 hours, apparently, and a couple of minor levees were overtopped. But now the worry is flooding from rainfall, not only local, but as the storm is forecast to follow the Mississippi as it moves inland, there's also a worry that that river will rise further from its already unusually high spring flood level.

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So far the Atlantic season has been inactive ...!! Maybe things will change!?

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So far the Atlantic season has been inactive ...!! Maybe things will change!?

Hmmm!  Probably the end of August when hubby and I go to Jamaica!  

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One to watch in mid-Atlantic - 70% chance of development over the next 5 days

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

 

EDIT - Maybe the one showing up on the GFS0z off New England on 17 August, but that's a long way off!

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One to watch in mid-Atlantic - 70% chance of development over the next 5 days

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

 

EDIT - Maybe the one showing up on the GFS0z off New England on 17 August, but that's a long way off!

Hmm, if one develops around 17th August we could be in for a bumpy flight!  

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Hmm, if one develops around 17th August we could be in for a bumpy flight!  

July - stand by....

August - come it must.....

Roger

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July - stand by....

August - come it must.....

Roger

Yep!  Unfortunately hubby’s birthday is 22nd August and he wanted to spend it on holiday.  Jamaica doesn’t suffer too badly from hurricanes usually, but there’s always a first time!  

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Interesting read! We are in 2nd week of August soon and we have yet to have one named Hurricane in the Atlantic?

Just wanted to share this article:

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-continue-to-forecast-near-average-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season/ 

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Interesting read! We are in 2nd week of August soon and we have yet to have one named Hurricane in the Atlantic?

Just wanted to share this article:

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-continue-to-forecast-near-average-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season/

urricane Barry 

 

urricane Barry 

A nice distinction in terms of definitions here here.

Hurricane Barry was only active in the Gulf of Mexico - is that part of the Atlantic?

Andrea formed in the Atlantic Ocean, but only made it to Tropical Storm status

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