Extreme weather in Yorkshire, as 10 hottest years on record all within past two decades

The Met Office says the UK's 10 hottest years, in records stretching back to the 19th century, have all occurred since 2002.

Flooding and hailstorms have caused disruption in North Yorkshire, as it was revealed the 10 hottest years since records began have all been in the last 20 years. Nearly a month's rain fell in four hours on Malham Tarn in the Yorkshire Dales and another deluge is likely today.

The extreme weather comes as the Met Office revealed the UK's 10 hottest years, in records stretching back to the 19th century, have all occurred since 2002. Analysis also showed none of the 10 coldest years have been recorded since 1963.

Dr Mark McCarthy, head of the Met Office's national climate information centre, said: "Looking back further into the UK's weather reveals a very interesting timeline, with the top 10 warmest years at the most recent end, since 2002. "Extending the record back by 26 years from 1910 to 1884 didn't bring in any new warm years, but it did bring in a number of new cold years, including several that are now within the top ten coldest years."

https://news.sky.com/story/couple-rescued-from-cliff-edge-as-flooding-hits-north-yorkshire-11773807

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and breezy at times in August but drier later

_________________________________

Wednesday 31 July – Sunday 4 August

Sunshine and showers. Warm later this week.

Wednesday will be breezy and showery in places with the showers heaviest and most widespread over northern England and Scotland. Some of the showers are likely to be thundery. Fewer showers further south with sunshine at times. On Thursday and Friday, most areas will have lighter winds. Many places will also have sunny intervals but showers are likely to develop again on both days although they should be lighter. The best of any lengthier periods of dry and sunny weather will be over western coasts and islands. This weekend, warmer and rather humid air is likely to drift in from the south with temperatures reaching the mid-20s Celsius in parts of the south. Saturday is expected to have the best of the sunshine. On Sunday, showery outbreaks of rain are likely to spread north-eastwards through the day, these perhaps becoming quite widespread later on.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 11 August

Turning wetter and breezier than normal for August

Next week may start dry and bright, at least for central, southern and eastern areas, thanks to a ridge of high pressure. However, it looks as though low pressure areas will then move in from the Atlantic. The track of these low pressure areas are likely to be further south than we might normally expect in August, bringing wetter conditions more widely than normal. Through the week, showers and bands of rain are likely to spread from the west at times, bringing above normal rainfall amounts to many for this time of year.

However, rainfall amounts in Scotland should be nearer normal. It is likely to become breezy at times, too, with brisk west or south-westerly winds. Despite the showers and rain, it should be rather warm with temperatures mostly near or slightly above the seasonal average. Most places will also see occasional drier and brighter interludes.

Monday 12 August – Sunday 25 August

Unsettled at first, then drier and warmer later

The middle part of August is likely to see a persistence of unsettled weather as further low pressure areas move in from the Atlantic at times. We might even see one or two ex-tropical storms reaching near our shores from the tropical Atlantic, bringing the potential for occasionally very wet and blustery weather, particularly in the west. Rainfall amounts are likely to remain above normal for August for most areas and it is expected to be breezy at times.

However, as we move into late August, there are some indications for drier weather to spread from the south. Central, southern and eastern areas of England could become much drier and warmer with the likelihood of a few hotter days. It should become calmer too. Further north and north-west, it may take longer for the rain to give way to drier conditions. However, it should at least become less wet than the preceding couple of weeks and a little warmer too.

Further ahead

August still looks like being a changeable month. We will take another look at the prospects for some drier and warmer weather later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Snowdon sunmit current conditions has gone live today

Very useful

Tuesday 6 Aug - Thursday 15 Aug

Bands of rain and showers across western and northern areas are likely to move northeastwards during Tuesday, heavy in places and with the risk of thunder. The southeast is likely to see the driest and brightest weather, and it will be warm here. Through the rest of the week, low pressure is likely to drift east across the UK maintaining showery conditions. Occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy in places, will move east at times, with daytime showers breaking out more generally elsewhere. Similar conditions are forecast to persist through to mid-month with any drier spells relatively short-lived. Temperatures will mostly be around average, but if winds become more southerly at times then some warm or very warm weather may develop across the south.

Thursday 15 Aug - Thursday 29 Aug

Although confidence is low throughout this period, the middle of August will probably start with unsettled conditions, with low pressure likely to be centred just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which as well as bringing periods of showers or longer spells of rain, would generally lead to above average temperatures. Into the second half of August, low pressure will probably move to lie the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow, with the wettest conditions in the north and west, although the far southwest may have some drier and slightly warmer weather at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Wednesday 7 Aug - Friday 16 Aug

Scattered showers are likely on Wednesday, turning heavy and thundery in places. Showers are likely to be slow moving in central and northern areas, but will sweep through in the south with brisk winds. Sunshine and scattered showers will develop again on Thursday and Friday, but these should be less intense than earlier in the week. There is a chance that cloud and rain could reach the far southwest later on Friday. Unsettled conditions will probably persist through to mid-month with further scattered heavy showers, perhaps thundery in places. Any drier spells are likely to be relatively short-lived. Temperatures will mostly be around average, but brief warm or very warm weather may develop across the south at times.

Saturday 17 Aug - Saturday 31 Aug

Although confidence is low throughout this period, the middle of August will probably start with unsettled conditions as low pressure dominates. Scattered heavy showers or longer spells of rain are likely, with some drier and brighter interludes in between. Later in the month, there are signs that high pressure could build into southern parts of the UK, perhaps bringing drier and more settled conditions here. However, spells of rain and showers are still likely in the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a chance of some warmer interludes at times, particularly in the south and perhaps more widely later in the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Impactful rain and wind


• Flooding possible


• Drier & warmer end to August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/02/john-hammond-month-ahead-more-dramas-to-come/

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wetter and breezier than usual for August

_________________________________

Saturday 3 August – Sunday 11 August

Turning very wet for a time. Occasionally warm.

This weekend will be warm for most; turning very warm and humid in the south-east by Sunday. There will also be sunshine at times but also showers. The showers will be most frequent in the north and west. The north Midlands, northern England and Scotland are likely to see heavy, thundery showers on Sunday. On Monday, any overnight rain should clear from England and Wales, leaving some sunshine but with fresher conditions and still with the chance of a few showers.

Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to have heavy, thundery showers. The middle of the week then looks distinctly unsettled with an area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic, bringing showers and longer spells of rain for many. Some heavy, slow-moving showers are possible over the north-western half of the UK with a risk of some localised flooding. Temperatures will fall nearer to the seasonal average too. A day of two of drier, calmer and warmer weather then appears likely later in the week. However, the unsettled conditions look like returning by the end of the week.

Monday 12 August – Sunday 18 August

An unsettled week. Brisk winds and rain at times.

An unsettled week for most with low pressure areas expected to continue tracking from the Atlantic, bringing further showers and longer spells of rain. The rain could be heavy and thundery at times and occasionally accompanied by brisk winds. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above normal for August for most and some local flooding issues are possible.

However, it should not be particularly cool - temperatures are expected to be near to the seasonal average for most. Most places should also see at least occasional drier and brighter interludes. There is a slight chance that drier and warmer than expected conditions spread from the near continent to southern and eastern areas of the UK. Most likely, though, is for unsettled conditions.

Monday 19 August – Sunday 1 September

Turning drier. Temperatures a touch above average.

Indications are for the latter part of this month to become less wet with outbreaks of rain and showers gradually becoming less frequent.  Southern and eastern England have the best chance of some lengthier periods of dry and warm weather developing, thanks to high pressure expanding from France. Further north and west, there is still likely to be wet and breezy weather at times but with an increased chance of some fine and settled days too.

Temperatures will rise during any fine and sunnier days. Overall, temperatures are expected to be a little above the long-term average for most in late August. However, there still appears to be a chance that low pressure stays nearer to the UK than expected, which would mean a continuation of rather wet and breezy conditions.

Further ahead

Overall, August looks like being wetter and breezier than usual. We will take another look at the prospects for some drier and warmer weather later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 8 Aug - Saturday 17 Aug

Thursday will see a mixture sunshine and showers, heavy and possibly thundery at times, especially across northern parts of the UK. Friday will be largely dry with warm sunny spells, but still a few showers possible. Later on Friday, we will probably see rain and strong winds arriving into the southwest, gradually spreading north-eastwards, which will be followed by heavy showers and humid conditions by the weekend. Into the following week an area of low pressure stays close to the UK, which is likely to maintain the unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain followed by scattered heavy and possibly thundery showers, with brief drier interludes. Temperatures will mostly be around average, but brief warm or very warm weather may develop across the south and southeast at times.

Sunday 18 Aug - Sunday 1 Sep

Although confidence is low throughout this period, we will probably start with unsettled conditions as low pressure dominates. Scattered heavy showers or longer spells of rain are likely, with some drier and brighter interludes in between. Later in the month, there are signs that high pressure could build into southern parts of the UK, perhaps bringing drier and more settled conditions here. However, spells of rain and showers are still likely in the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a chance of some warmer interludes at times, particularly in the south and perhaps more widely later in the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Next week

Unsettled
Further heavy showers

Next weekend

Turning more unsettled
Rain at times
Potentially windy
Average temperatures 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49222420?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter

Friday 9 Aug - Sunday 18 Aug

After a sunny start to Friday, showers will develop. Outbreaks of occasionally heavy rain and strong winds will then arrive into the southwest. The band of rain will gradually spread northeastwards, and will be followed by warm, humid conditions and heavy showers as we head into the weekend. For the following week, an area of low pressure will stay close to the UK. This is likely to maintain the unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain followed by scattered heavy and possibly thundery showers. It will be windier than the earlier in the week, with a risk of coastal gales, but there will be some brief drier interludes. Temperatures will mostly be around average, but brief warm or very warm weather may develop across the south and southeast at times.

Monday 19 Aug - Monday 2 Sep

Although confidence is low throughout this period, we will probably start with unsettled conditions as low pressure is likely to dominate. Scattered heavy showers or longer spells of rain will be likely, with some drier and brighter interludes in between. Later in the month, there are signs that high pressure could build into southern parts of the UK, perhaps bringing drier and more settled conditions here. However, spells of rain and showers are still likely in the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a chance of some warmer interludes at times, particularly in the south and perhaps more widely by the end of August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 11 Aug - Tuesday 20 Aug

Unsettled weather will continue through Sunday, but showers probably fewer and lighter than on Saturday. Strong winds, particularly in the south at first, will continue to ease throughout the day. Monday is likely to be drier and brighter, but still some showers around. Further rain, possibly heavy is likely to spread from the west by Tuesday. Through the rest of the period low pressure close to the UK is likely to maintain unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain followed by scattered heavy and possibly thundery showers. It will often be windy, with a low risk of coastal gales at times. Temperatures will mostly be around average, but brief warm spells are possible across the south and southeast.

Wednesday 21 Aug - Wednesday 4 Sep

Although confidence is low throughout this period, we will probably start with unsettled conditions as low pressure is likely to dominate. Scattered heavy showers or longer spells of rain will be likely, with some drier and brighter interludes in between. Later in the month, there are some signs that high pressure could build into southeastern parts of the UK, perhaps bringing drier and more settled conditions here. However, spells of rain and showers are still likely elsewhere, especially the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a chance of some warmer interludes at times, particularly in the south and perhaps more widely by beginning of September.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wetter and breezier than usual for late summer

_________________________________

Wednesday 7 August – Sunday 11 August

Turning windy and very wet for a time

On Wednesday, much of England and Wales will have sunny intervals together with some well-scattered showers. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have more frequent showers and these are likely to be heavy and thundery in places, giving some locally high rainfall totals.

On Thursday, there will be some bright or sunny spells for most but with a few further showers in places, these still locally heavy in northern Scotland. On Thursday night, outbreaks of heavy, thundery rain are likely to sweep in from the south-west, reaching all but northern Scotland by the end of the night.

Friday will see heavy, thundery rain continuing to spread north-eastwards over the UK, followed by a mixture of sunshine and showers from the south. Some of these showers are likely to be heavy and thundery over western and northern areas.

The unsettled weather then looks like persisting into the start of this weekend. A deep area of low pressure crossing the northern UK is likely to bring strong west to south-westerly winds over parts of England and Wales with gusts over 50mph in places, enough to bring some tree branches down. There should also be sunny spells but with a scattering of blustery showers. Less windy for Scotland and Northern Ireland but with heavy showers or longer spells of rain there. Sunday should then see an improvement in the weather with heavy rain and strong winds easing.

Monday 12 August – Sunday 18 August

Another unsettled week; wet and windy at times

Another unsettled week for many next week due to further low pressure areas approaching the UK from the Atlantic. Further showers or longer outbreaks of rain will spread from west to east across the country through the week, accompanied by brisk winds at times. Rainfall amounts are likely to be above normal for this time of year in most areas with wettest conditions over western and northern areas of the UK, where localised flooding is possible.

However, we will see occasional drier and sunnier interludes as well, perhaps with the best of those for south-eastern and eastern fringes of England and the far-north of Scotland. Despite the unsettled weather, temperatures should not be far from the seasonal average; perhaps a little below average in Scotland.

Monday 19 August – Sunday 1 September

Mostly unsettled but drier later in the south

Latest indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting for a while with further showers and bands of rain spreading from the west at times. Again, western and northern areas of the UK are likely to be wettest. The rain will continue to be accompanied by brisk winds at times.

However, there are still signs that high pressure should expand from southern Europe, bringing drier and less breezy conditions to the southern half of the UK by the end of this month. Further north, the frequency of rain should decrease, allowing for some drier and brighter periods of weather there too. Temperatures mostly near to the seasonal average but feeling warmer in the south as the weather becomes more settled.

Further ahead

Overall, August still looks like being wetter and breezier than usual. We will take another look at the prospects for some drier and warmer weather at the end of this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 12 Aug - Wednesday 21 Aug

Monday will be another day of showers and sunny spells. The showers will again be heavy at times with a risk of thunderstorms and blustery winds. Further rain, which may be heavy, is likely to spread from the west by Tuesday. Through the rest of the period low pressure close to the UK is likely to maintain unsettled conditions, with some prolonged spells of rain followed by periods scattered ,heavy and sometimes thundery showers. Any drier intervals are likely to be short lived. It will often be windy, with a low risk of coastal gales at times. Temperatures will mostly be around average, although may be on the cool side at times in the north.

Thursday 22 Aug - Thursday 5 Sep

Although confidence is low throughout this period, we will probably start with unsettled conditions as low pressure is likely to dominate. Scattered heavy showers or longer spells of rain will be likely, with some drier and brighter interludes in between. Later in the month, there are some signs that high pressure could build into southern parts of the UK, bringing the possibility of some longer drier periods. However, spells of rain and showers are still likely elsewhere, especially the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be fluctuate, although will be around normal for the time of year on the whole.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 13 Aug - Thursday 22 Aug

Tuesday will be a day of sunshine and showers, some of which will be heavy with a chance of hail and thunder. Cloudier skies may arrive in the southwest with some rain later in the day. Through the rest of the period low pressure close to the UK is likely to maintain unsettled conditions, with some prolonged spells of rain followed by periods scattered, heavy and sometimes thundery showers. Any drier intervals are likely to be short lived. It will often be windy, with a low risk of coastal gales at times, most likely in the north and east. Temperatures will be mostly near to average through the period, or slightly below average at times.

Friday 23 Aug - Friday 6 Sep

Although confidence is low throughout this period, we will probably start with unsettled conditions as low pressure is likely to dominate. Scattered heavy showers or longer spells of rain will be likely, with some drier and brighter interludes in between. Later in the month, there are some signs that high pressure could build into southern parts of the UK, bringing the possibility of some longer drier periods. However, spells of rain and showers are still likely elsewhere, especially the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be fluctuate, although will be around normal for the time of year on the whole.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Wednesday 14 Aug - Friday 23 Aug

Generally unsettled conditions for much of this period. There will be some bands of rain, which are likely to be heavy in some local areas, especially in the west or northwest. These will be interspersed by brighter showery interludes across the UK at times. It will be windy too, with gales at times, especially in the north and west. Any drier spells are likely to be brief, and will most likely be in the south or southwest. Towards the end of the period, there are some signs that longer drier spells may occur, especially in the south. Temperatures will often be below normal for the time of year, with some chilly nights at times during any quieter spells.

Saturday 24 Aug - Saturday 7 Sep

This period will probably start off with changeable conditions, with the best of the dry weather most likely in the south. Later in the month, and more especially in the start of September there are tentative signs that high pressure could become more dominant across the UK, which would mean longer spells of dry weather, and more sunshine generally. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate, although will be around normal for the time of year on the whole. There is a chance of some more lengthy warm spells developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• More wind and rain


• Further impacts


• Rays of hope by September

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/09/john-hammond-month-ahead-could-be-worse-honest/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A wetter and windier August than normal

_________________________________

Saturday 10 August – Sunday 18 August

A windy start, then staying unsettled

A windy start to the weekend for the southern half of the country, with unusually strong winds for August battering much of Wales and England. Northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland will see calmer winds but widespread showers and thunderstorms. By Sunday, however, winds will ease with showers spreading into England and eventually reaching the south-east by the afternoon. Turning drier and brighter in the northern UK, although some cloud and drizzle may linger for northeast England and east Scotland. Next week the general weather pattern is expected to remain unsettled with low pressure tracks remaining over the UK through mid-August. A brief drier spell Sunday night and Monday will end with showers pushing into the west Monday afternoon, which will eventually spread into central and eastern areas of Britain into Tuesday.

On Wednesday there is a bit of uncertainty regarding a low pressure system expected to move in from the southwest. There is high confidence on the low arriving on Wednesday, but lower confidence on how strong it might be. It should be another breezy day across the south, with widespread areas of rain, sometimes heavy. However, it does not look like it will be quite as windy as this weekend. High pressure should then build in from Thursday and into Friday, bringing another drier and brighter spell. This will not last for long, as another low pressure system is likely to arrive on Friday afternoon and linger through the weekend, keeping things showery and breezy across the country.

Monday 19 August – Sunday 25 August

Continued unsettled weather with some dry spells

Low pressure tracks are expected to remain over the UK for the third full week of August, bringing wetter and windier conditions than we usually see in the height of summer. Temperatures will be a bit changeable at times, but should overall remain near or just a bit below average, especially as fronts move through. However, high pressure is expected to gradually build more strongly into central Europe from the south-west as we head later into August. This will mean that between low pressure systems, ridges of high pressure will move over the UK and dry things out, but these will tend to linger in the south as the next frontal system passes through. This will mean that southern areas can expected to see longer dry spells, while the northern half of the UK staying wetter and breezier. Temperatures may start to climb briefly above average in the south during these dry spells. With low pressure staying strong to the north of the UK, there are currently no strong signals for any heat to build in from the continent.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 8 September

Wet end to the month before turning drier later

The high pressure that is expected to build into central Europe earlier in August looks likely that it will continue to build into northeast Europe and through central Europe, pushing low pressure tracks further north. This will mean that rather than low pressure systems crossing the UK, they will tend to linger between the UK and Iceland. High pressure will be the main influence on the weather in the southern half of the UK, where things are expected to gradually trend drier, brighter, and less breezy.

The northern half of the country will still see low pressure influences and weak fronts, but these will tend to be slow moving and bring outbreaks of rain and cloudier skies. The high pressure to the south will result in breezier conditions at times as well. The south will still likely see a few wetter and windier days, especially for the final few days of August. But as we head into September the weather pattern looks to become increasingly dry and warm.

Further ahead

There is still a bit of uncertainty on how quickly high pressure will begin to take over towards the end, so we will take a look at how early the unsettled pattern may shift.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 15 Aug - Saturday 24 Aug

Generally unsettled conditions for much of this period. There will be some bands of rain, which are likely to be heavy in some local areas, especially in the west or northwest. These will be interspersed by brighter showery interludes across the UK at times. It will be windy too, with gales at times, especially in the north and west. Any drier spells are likely to be brief, and will most likely be in the south or southwest. Towards the end of the period, there are some signs that longer drier spells may occur, especially in the south. Temperatures will often be below normal for the time of year, with some chilly nights at times during any quieter spells.

Sunday 25 Aug - Sunday 8 Sep

This period will probably start off with changeable conditions, with the best of the dry weather most likely in the south. Later in the month, and more especially in the start of September there are tentative signs that high pressure could become more dominant across the UK, which would mean longer spells of dry weather, and more sunshine generally. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate, although will be around normal for the time of year on the whole. There is a chance of some more lengthy warm spells developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 16 Aug - Sunday 25 Aug

The unsettled theme looks set to continue, with low pressure systems affecting the UK. This is likely to bring spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, especially in the west or northwest. These will be interspersed by brighter and showery interludes across the UK. It will be windy too, with gales at times, especially in the north and west. Any drier spells are likely to be brief, and will most likely be in the south or southwest. Towards the end of the period, there are some signs that longer drier spells may occur, especially in the south. Temperatures will often be below normal for the time of year, with some chilly nights at times during any quieter spells.

Monday 26 Aug - Monday 9 Sep

This period will probably start off with changeable conditions, with the best of the dry weather most likely in the south. Later in the month, and more especially into the start of September there are tentative signs that high pressure could become more dominant across the UK, which would mean longer spells of dry weather, and more sunshine generally. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate, although will be around normal for the time of year on the whole. There is a chance of some more lengthy warm spells developing. Confidence is extremely low throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast