Met Office Hadley       17.1c.       Anomaly        1.1c. Provisional to 22nd. 

Metcheck                    17.03c      Anomaly         0.57c

Netweather                 17.57c      Anomaly         1.08c.

Mean of my 10 stations  17.91c    Anomaly   0.25c. 

It’s surely going to climb this week!  Is it possible we could get above 19c again?  What are we looking at for Thursday to beat the date record and the July day record?

Uh... seeing the UKV 12z shared around on the other side and I think (can't zoom enough) it's got 30*C+ across the entire CET region, with temps potentially climbing well past that marker at Pershore (34*C by the looks of it).

What's the CET maximum record... and just what would that model chart be equivalent to? I wish I could post it here but it's behind a paywall. Hopefully GW can access it or find it on the other side.

Sure looks like the CET is in for a right old booting upward, but it remains to be seen if it will stay warm after Friday; a battle between the continental air and maritime air from the Atlantic looks to unfold, potentially leaving parts of the UK thoroughly soggy and cool by day.

I'm not going to bother with even a rough CET estimate, as the model solutions are fluctuating wildly as they try to handle the exceptional 'heat dome' formation across Scandinavia. I'd not be surprised if its resilience against the Atlantic lows was being underestimated, even at just 4 days range.

If the heatwave continues beyond Friday I’m pretty sure we could come close to last year's July CET, which I think was 19.1c.

If this weather continues through August, despite June not being much above average, we could be chasing the summer record!  I can’t remember what the JJA figures were last year but August let it down. 

EDIT:  I think  16.1, 19.1, 16.6 were last year’s figures.

Here are the date records from Tuesday of this week as we may have a chance of breaking some of these. Many of them were only set last year!

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Link to full sized table

The 1900 records on the 24rd and 25th look especially vulnerable

So we did break the date record today. Tomorrow we only have to beat 32.6C

 

So we did break the date record today. Tomorrow we only have to beat 32.6C

What's the CET maximum record... and just what would that model chart be equivalent to? I wish I could post it here but it's behind a paywall. Hopefully GW can access it or find it on the other side.

Highest daily maximum CET figures (all dates at 31C+)

3 July 1976 33.2C

3 August 1990 33.2C

19 July 2006 32.9C

9 August 2003 32.8C

2 August 1990 32.8C

1 July 2015 32.7C

4 August 1975 31.9C

1 August 1995 31.9C

2 July 1976 31.8C

29 July 1948 31.6C

6 July 1976 31.6C

9 August 1911 31.5C

4 July 1976 31.4C

5 July 1976 31.4C

2 August 1995 31.4C

2 September 1906 31.3C

12 July 1923 31.1C

15 July 2003 31.1C

7 August 1975 31.1C

8 August 1975 31.0C 

1 September 1906 31.0C

My maximum CET estimate for today is 30.1C. Stonyhurst was well under 30C.

Worth noting that in the hot summer of 2018 the maximum CET broke 30C only once on 26 July with 30.7C. This year we have broken 30C twice already if my estimate for today is correct.

Here is the latest CET update. The estimate for the whole of July has actually fallen slightly. Currently expecting a final figure of 17.64C

Today may just have been a CET date record with 22.5C

The forecast for Thursday is a mean of 24.7C. That would be the equal 3rd highest CET mean ever. Could be higher than that so might even make it into second place.

Here is the latest CET update. The estimate for the whole of July has actually fallen slightly. Currently expecting a final figure of 17.64C

Today may just have been a CET date record with 22.5C

The forecast for Thursday is a mean of 24.7C. That would be the equal 3rd highest CET mean ever. Could be higher than that so might even make it into second place.

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It just seems to have been such a good month in general that deserves a place in the record books, although date records will do nicely!  

Met Office Hadley        17.3c.      Anomaly    1.4c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                     17.31c     Anomaly     0.85c

Netweather                  17.82c     Anomaly     1.33c

 Mean of my 10           18.11c      Anomaly    0.42c.    

17.5°C provisional to 24th.

Met Office Hadley          17.5c.       Anomaly       1.6c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                       17.54c      Anomaly        1.08c

Netweather                    18.05c      Anomaly        1.56c.

Mean of my 10               18.38c.     Anomaly        0.69c.       

 

Highest daily maximum CET figures (all dates at 31C+)

3 July 1976 33.2C

3 August 1990 33.2C

19 July 2006 32.9C

9 August 2003 32.8C

2 August 1990 32.8C

1 July 2015 32.7C

4 August 1975 31.9C

1 August 1995 31.9C

2 July 1976 31.8C

29 July 1948 31.6C

6 July 1976 31.6C

9 August 1911 31.5C

4 July 1976 31.4C

5 July 1976 31.4C

2 August 1995 31.4C

2 September 1906 31.3C

12 July 1923 31.1C

15 July 2003 31.1C

7 August 1975 31.1C

8 August 1975 31.0C 

1 September 1906 31.0C

 

My maximum CET estimate for today is 30.1C. Stonyhurst was well under 30C.

Worth noting that in the hot summer of 2018 the maximum CET broke 30C only once on 26 July with 30.7C. This year we have broken 30C twice already if my estimate for today is correct.

Already at Midday the three CET stations are averaging 31.2C max (hourly reading). Potential to get close to an all time record CET max

Met Office Hadley            17.8c.       Anomaly       1.8c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                         17.86c      Anomaly        1.39c

Netweather                      18.37c      Anomaly        1.88c

Canvey Island             19.9c     Anomaly     0.49c

Cheadle Hulme            17.9c     Anomaly     0.3c

Clevedon Weather        19.4c     Anomaly     0.57c

Darwen                       18.9c     Anomaly     1.24c

Hexham                       18.1c    Anomaly      2.27c

Lindford                       18.8c    Anomaly     1.64c

Mount Sorrel                 18.6c   Anomaly      0.5c

Forest Town Mansfield    19.6c   Anomaly      2.02c

Peasedown St John        18.46c Anomaly      0.77c

Treviskey Redruth          18.3c   Anomaly      1.3c

Mean Of 10 Stations       18.79c. Difference   1.1c. Using a 6 - Year Average.  

Any news on whether yesterday was a daily CET record? The extent of the heat was astonishing.

Hadley has 24.7 up for yesterday, just beating 1/7/2015 but not reaching 1/8/1995. 1948 is tops still? 

The provisional daily max CET yesterday seems to be 32.5C. Surprised it wasn't higher than that.

 

Hadley has 24.7 up for yesterday, just beating 1/7/2015 but not reaching 1/8/1995. 1948 is tops still? 

It’s a shame the data we collect doesn’t really tell the whole story at a glance!  I suppose it needs human input to make it real!  

The provisional daily max CET yesterday seems to be 32.5C. Surprised it wasn't higher than that.

Sounds way too low. Even using the highest hourly readings at the three stations of 31.4, 33.8 and 36.2 gives 101.4/3 = 33.8C