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Offline Joe Bloggs  
#381 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:04:56(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,151
Location: Manchester

12z ARPEGE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=26&mode=41&map=330

In line with recent output, the hot spot looks likely to be around Cambridgeshire, up to 39C here. Also exceptionally hot in places like the East Midlands, and Lincolnshire, South Yorks. London exceptionally hot too but not as hot as slightly further north.

Looks like Kent could miss out on the very hottest of the weather.

Manchester could sneak in a 33C before the evening thunderstorms roll in.

I do think we'll break the all time record, and I suspect it'll be a historic day. 

40C not impossible either. 

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Offline Hickster  
#382 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:11:56(UTC)
Hickster

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/04/2007(UTC)
Posts: 1,923
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Go to Quoted Post

12z ARPEGE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=26&mode=41&map=330

In line with recent output, the hot spot looks likely to be around Cambridgeshire, up to 39C here. Also exceptionally hot in places like the East Midlands, and Lincolnshire, South Yorks. London exceptionally hot too but not as hot as slightly further north.

Looks like Kent could miss out on the very hottest of the weather.

Manchester could sneak in a 33C before the evening thunderstorms roll in.

I do think we'll break the all time record, and I suspect it'll be a historic day. 

40C not impossible either. 

37c is quite hot enough thank you.  It'll be by far the highest temperature I've ever experienced in this country - previous being 35c in 1990 when living in the West Midlands.

Brexit - Let's do it!

Etchingham, E Sussex

110m asl

Offline Joe Bloggs  
#383 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:14:53(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,151
Location: Manchester

Originally Posted by: Hickster Go to Quoted Post

 

37c is quite hot enough thank you.  It'll be by far the highest temperature I've ever experienced in this country - previous being 35c in 1990 when living in the West Midlands.

Can't even imagine 37C in this country.

If it does manage to get to 34C here (MetO app), it will will feel so so surreal. Bear in mind that anything more than 25C is considered hot up here. 

39C is just unbelievable. 

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Offline SJV  
#384 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:15:16(UTC)
SJV

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Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC)
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Location: Sheffield, 100m ASL

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Go to Quoted Post

12z ARPEGE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=26&mode=41&map=330

In line with recent output, the hot spot looks likely to be around Cambridgeshire, up to 39C here. Also exceptionally hot in places like the East Midlands, and Lincolnshire, South Yorks. London exceptionally hot too but not as hot as slightly further north.

Looks like Kent could miss out on the very hottest of the weather.

Manchester could sneak in a 33C before the evening thunderstorms roll in.

I do think we'll break the all time record, and I suspect it'll be a historic day. 

40C not impossible either. 

Thanks for that Joe, yes I agree we're on the verge of an historic day  I think we'll scrape past the all time record, maybe 38.9C or something like that.

I hope here in Sheffield we get past our all time record of 34.3C. We stand a good chance if we stay fair through the afternoon.

CAPE-steve

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Offline briggsy6  
#385 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:25:49(UTC)
briggsy6

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 698

By "historic" I assume you mean "historically awful" unless you're one of the few lucky enough to have air con at their place of work or home or are off work and lucky enough to spend it down the local lido.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline Rob K  
#386 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:32:53(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,981
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

By "historic" I assume you mean "historically awful" unless you're one of the few lucky enough to have air con at their place of work or home or are off work and lucky enough to spend it down the local lido.

My office is always too cold in summer and too hot in winter. I had to go and sit out in the warmth at lunchtime for 20 minutes just to get the chill out of my bones. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Joe Bloggs  
#387 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:33:29(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,151
Location: Manchester

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

By "historic" I assume you mean "historically awful" unless you're one of the few lucky enough to have air con at their place of work or home or are off work and lucky enough to spend it down the local lido.

No, I mean historic ! ;-) 

(although I do have aircon at work) ! 

Last night I had barely an hour of sleep as it was just too hot, and then the thunderstorm rolled in during the early hours. 

But I still love it. 

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Offline briggsy6  
#388 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:42:16(UTC)
briggsy6

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 698

I wonder if the human body can tell the difference between 35c or 39c of heat? If not, then it only really matters in terms of historic record keeping purposes.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline Rob K  
#389 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:43:54(UTC)
Rob K

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Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,981
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

I wonder if the human body can tell the difference between 35c or 39c of heat? If not, then it only really matters in terms of historic record keeping purposes.

Well one is below body temperature and one is above, so that would probably make a difference?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Online Brian Gaze  
#390 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:44:32(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

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Posts: 46,709

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

I wonder if the human body can tell the difference between 35c or 39c of heat? If not, then it only really matters in terms of historic record keeping purposes.

The difference between 38C and 42C was very easy for me to tell earlier this summer. I'm fine up to 40C but any higher and I start slowing down. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Rob K  
#391 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:47:33(UTC)
Rob K

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Posts: 20,981
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Both Belgium and the Netherlands have new national records:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154069167185809410

39.9C for Belgium, just missed out on the 40!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline briggsy6  
#392 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:58:33(UTC)
briggsy6

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Posts: 698

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

The difference between 38C and 42C was very easy for me to tell earlier this summer. I'm fine up to 40C but any higher and I start slowing down. 

I'm very jealous of your high temperature threshold Brian. Anything above 32C and I start struggling.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline Joe Bloggs  
#393 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:01:25(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,151
Location: Manchester

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

I wonder if the human body can tell the difference between 35c or 39c of heat? If not, then it only really matters in terms of historic record keeping purposes.

For me, I love extremes, especially as they are so unusual in this country. 

It’s part and parcel of my interest in the weather - which is why I loved spending time outside in Feb 18 despite freezing my balls off. 

My passion for the weather outweighs the practical inconveniences of it all. 

But maybe for another thread :-) 

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Online johncs2016  
#394 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:03:47(UTC)
johncs2016

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Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
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United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

 

I'm very jealous of your high temperature threshold Brian. Anything above 32C and I start struggling.

I'm already struggling a bit when it's in the upper 20s°C or higher, let alone at 40°C.

Located in the most boring part of the UK when it comes to our weather where hardly anything ever happens which is even remotely interesting in terms of our weather (other than yet more constant grey skies), and with the more interesting weather usually always occurring elsewhere in the UK apart from here.
Offline Tim A  
#395 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:06:36(UTC)
Tim A

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Posts: 13,281
Man
Location: Leeds

I am with you too Joe.

I am at home tomorrow, If we are very lucky as per Met Office automated I might get 33c tomorrow here but I will still drive down to the valley bottom closer to the city centre to experience 34c to 35c in this country. Sad perhaps .

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

Offline Col  
#396 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:07:41(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
Will be annoyed if we end up with 39.9C... like the 29.9C October reading a few years back!

29.9C was my highest reading for last summer and yes that was infuriating. 30C shots don't come around all that often but tomorrow, well surely it's odds on.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Col  
#397 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:15:54(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Tim A Go to Quoted Post
I am with you too Joe.
I am at home tomorrow, If we are very lucky as per Met Office automated I might get 33c tomorrow here but I will still drive down to the valley bottom closer to the city centre to experience 34c to 35c in this country. Sad perhaps .

I'm home too. Yesterday morning I made the spur of the moment decision to take tomorrow and Friday off. The low 30s is exeptionally rare here and if it's going to that hot tomorrow I want to experience it properly, not just from the perspective of a hot & sticky workplace. It's been bad enough already this week, it will be horrendous tomorrow.

Edited by user 24 July 2019 17:18:04(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Retron  
#398 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:21:37(UTC)
Retron

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 23,912
Location: Leysdown-on-Sea

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Go to Quoted Post

 

Looks like Kent could miss out on the very hottest of the weather.

 

Good. Trust me, you really don't want to experience it [36C+] in an overcrowded area full of traffic jams and tired, irritated motorists - it sucks, frankly. (I experienced 36 or so on that August day and the 38.5C was just a few miles to the south. It was hideous, the relief when the sea breeze kicked in and lowered the temperature by 10 degrees within a minute or two was immense!)

If you do, for whatever reason, want to experience a proper British hot day, have a day trip along the M20 to Dover and back. You'll really get the most of it as you sit in the queues on the M20 and M25!

FWIW, ARPEGE actually has a 40C for the UK - if you use the TMax rather than the T2M chart.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1527/arpegeuk-31-30-0_msi5.png

EDIT: As NW says, there's even a 41C there:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=131&x=4864.91&y=1527.2&ech=30&zoom=4

 

HARMONIE only has 39C, having lost the 40 from this morning:

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7402/harmonie-41-26-0_sad5.png

AROME tops out at 38C - you can pan and zoom this link:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=131&x=5238.8&y=2382.2&ech=30&zoom=4

(with a 36 over me, yuck.)

 

 

 

 

Edited by user 24 July 2019 17:24:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Rob K  
#399 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:24:08(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,981
Location: Northeast Hampshire

34.3C at Writtle confirmed making this the hottest day of the year... until tomorrow!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Bellevarde  
#400 Posted : 24 July 2019 17:24:42(UTC)
Bellevarde

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/02/2012(UTC)
Posts: 45
Location: Horley, Surrey

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

The difference between 38C and 42C was very easy for me to tell earlier this summer. I'm fine up to 40C but any higher and I start slowing down. 

 

It is the dew point that makes all the difference in terms of whether it is bearable or not IMO. I was in Vegas on July 5th 2007 which was it's joint second hottest day in history, 46.6c. It was totally bearable though as the dew point was an incredible -6c at the time. A few years earlier in Oklahoma City it was around 36c but this was totally unbearable with a dew point of around 22c.

Less extremes of dew point in the UK of course but the difference between 8c and 18c dew points on our hottest days is huge. 

 

 

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