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Offline LeedsLad123  
#361 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:43:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Justin W Go to Quoted Post


Over the last 10 hours, the Met Office automated output has dialled back the projected max down the hill in Wye tomorrow by 2C - from 38C to 36C.



That’s probably because the focus of the heat has shifted. If the record goes it’ll probably be somewhere between London and Cambridge.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Gusty  
#362 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:48:26(UTC)
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We've been here many times before though whereby projected forecast temperatures are sometimes smashed on the day.


It happens more times than it falls short.


I'm in the 39c club for the UK tomorrow....shame I'll miss out on all the fun here on the forum. 

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Offline Rob K  
#363 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:50:45(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Justin W Go to Quoted Post


Over the last 10 hours, the Met Office automated output has dialled back the projected max down the hill in Wye tomorrow by 2C - from 38C to 36C.


I don't think we will see the all-time record broken tomorrow.



Hmm, the Northolt and Heathrow ones have gone from 39 to 38 as well. I wonder whether the storms last night pushing further east than forecast might have introduced more moisture and affected things a bit? Either way it will be interesting tracking the figures tomorrow! 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Rob K  
#364 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:52:57(UTC)
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BTW for those who think the models are overplaying it, 100F+ is heavily odds-on on Betfair, so you can get about 5/2 about the 100F being missed, for a few quid...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Online lanky  
#365 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:54:54(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
BTW for those who think the models are overplaying it, 100F+ is heavily odds-on on Betfair, so you can get about 5/2 about the 100F being missed, for a few quid...


On the BBC1 Weather at 13:30 today they gave odds of 60% that we would hit an all time high tomorrow. Not far off what the Bookies are quoting


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Offline Rob K  
#366 Posted : 24 July 2019 14:56:12(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post


 


On the BBC1 Weather at 13:30 today they gave odds of 60% that we would hit an all time high tomorrow. Not far off what the Bookies are quoting


 



And of course 100F is only 37.8c so we could easily get 100F+ but miss the record. In fact that's what I went for in the competition!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Online Brian Gaze  
#367 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:01:38(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post


On the BBC1 Weather at 13:30 today they gave odds of 60% that we would hit an all time high tomorrow. Not far off what the Bookies are quoting



Is that from MeteoGroup or the Met Office? I was told by a journalist this morning that the 60% chance doing the rounds comes from the Met Office. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#368 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:09:30(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post


 


Is that from MeteoGroup or the Met Office? I was told by a journalist this morning that the 60% chance doing the rounds comes from the Met Office. 



The MetOffice had on their Twitter they were forecasting a 60% of the all time record going

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline four  
#369 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:09:51(UTC)
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FWIW Met Office predict 30 for tomorrow here now compared to 29C earlier.
That would equal 1st July 2015.
It's nowhere near hottest day though that would be in August 2003 or 1976 *before records began 

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#370 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:13:26(UTC)
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Latest Aperge showing 39C being quite widespread.


The latest update also has a 41C!


 

Edited by user 24 July 2019 15:22:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Caz  
#371 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:30:37(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 Go to Quoted Post
I think the extent of the heat will be noteworthy regardless. The Met Office shows a huge area of 35c covering much of England, from Kent up to Yorkshire and from Worcestershire to Lincolnshire. The national record might not go but I imagine many places will break their local records.
  I think you’re right. It’s the fact this heatwave is so widespread that makes it special.  When the National summer record was set, I wonder what temps were like across the country.

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#372 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:35:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


Latest Aperge showing 39C being quite widespread.


The latest update also has a 41C!


 



 


Incredible!!! It's effort for today is pretty much spot on.


 

Offline Rob K  
#373 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:36:09(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post


  I think you’re right. It’s the fact this heatwave is so widespread that makes it special.  When the National summer record was set, I wonder what temps were like across the country.



Lots of info here: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1256/wea.10.04A


 


The heat was more widespread on August 9th but less intense.


 



 


1990 had a much wider spread of really high temperatures. 1911 looks close to that too.


 



This year looks like having a wide spread too.


 


As for this spell, the Met still reckon 39C is the most likely max.


 


https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154043560418783233


 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 24 July 2019 15:37:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Jiries  
#374 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:43:02(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


 


 


Incredible!!! It's effort for today is pretty much spot on.


 



Would be so nice to see rounded up 40C mark tomorrow and perhaps once in your life time to see this unless it become more frequent in future.


 

Offline Hickster  
#375 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:43:51(UTC)
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Our forecast (Haremere Hall) has gone up from 36 to 37 in the last 24 hrs. For a location which is only 12 miles from the coast and 100m asl, that's quite a temperature!
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Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#376 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:50:35(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post


 


Lots of info here: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1256/wea.10.04A


 


The heat was more widespread on August 9th but less intense.


 



 


1990 had a much wider spread of really high temperatures. 1911 looks close to that too.


 



This year looks like having a wide spread too.


 


As for this spell, the Met still reckon 39C is the most likely max.


 


https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154043560418783233


 



That is a very confident tweet for tomorrow

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Rob K  
#377 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:56:13(UTC)
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Will be annoyed if we end up with 39.9C... like the 29.9C October reading a few years back!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline warrenb  
#378 Posted : 24 July 2019 15:56:45(UTC)
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Meto now saying 70% chance to break the record tomorrow
Offline Gusty  
#379 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:01:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
Will be annoyed if we end up with 39.9C... like the 29.9C October reading a few years back!


Would you ? It just means you will then have to wait until next year to hit the big 40.0 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Offline Rob K  
#380 Posted : 24 July 2019 16:01:46(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post


 


Would you ? It just means you will then have to wait until next year to hit the big 40.0 



Or next month 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
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