Originally Posted by: Quantum

Thresholds looking to beat today versus what we would expect tommorow:

July record: 33C

Good chance of hitting 38C: 34C

All time record: 35C

Comfortably above all time record: 36C

Chance of 40C: 37C

 

We just missed out on yesterday's all time threashold of 34C.

 

For which areas though? The highest modelled temperatures on the models (35C+) are in places outside the synoptic network so we probably won't see them.

Arome ensembles showing a few members going over 40C even as far north as the Midlands.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Originally Posted by: Rob K

 

 

And Langdon Bay is cooler now than it was overnight! 19.5C at 10am.

There's a wonderful article in the Evening Standard that plays fast and lose with the meteorology as usual. They spend two paragraphs highlighting how Langdon Bay would have broken the maximin night temperature, if it hadn't in fact been cooler. I know what they mean, but it made me chuckle.

Coincidentally, Reigate yesterday would have become the new holder for the all time high in England, if it had just been warmer.

And of course, there was the obligatory picture of a girl in a bikini. She was at Glastonbury, but don't worry about the calendar too much.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013

 

Yep - Also, conditions to achieve numbers will never be the same on any given day. I am not sure we ca say achieving 34C today will guarantee anything tomorrow as starting conditions will be different

I think you're permitted to be a little unscientific in this thread aren't you? 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

 

 

I'm at my youngest's 'Leavers Assembly' in a small primary school assembly hall. It gets like a sauna when the temp outside's in the teens. It's going to be purgatory tomorrow. Only saving grace is it's first thing in the morning.

Teens?

Originally Posted by: Quantum

 

So highest temperature recorded today anywhere in the UK.

I'm basing the threasholds on a comparison with the highest pixel in most model forecasts vs the highest observed maxima. I realize I'm not comparing like with like but I don't think it matters too much, the two quantities are still related.

I reckon we would expect to see 35C today as an observed maximun if we were also expecting to see 38.5C tommorow.

 

But today the modelled area of 35C+ coincides with only a small part of the country with basically no observations, so it would make more sense to compare the areas that are actually covered. Most models give about 32-33C for those areas.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow.

The only thing that will stop the record going in my opinion is cloud cover , a few storms likely in the afternoon may scupper it. But i think 39c will happen somewhere. 

Over the last 10 hours, the Met Office automated output has dialled back the projected max down the hill in Wye tomorrow by 2C - from 38C to 36C.

I don't think we will see the all-time record broken tomorrow.