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Late July Heatwave - potential record breaker?
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,755
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: Quantum  Thresholds looking to beat today versus what we would expect tommorow: July record: 33C Good chance of hitting 38C: 34C All time record: 35C Comfortably above all time record: 36C Chance of 40C: 37C We just missed out on yesterday's all time threashold of 34C. For which areas though? The highest modelled temperatures on the models (35C+) are in places outside the synoptic network so we probably won't see them. |
They say it's always darkest before the dawn. But sometimes it's darkest just before the tornado flattens your house.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 3,056
Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Originally Posted by: Rob K For which areas though? The highest modelled temperatures on the models (35C+) are in places outside the synoptic network so we probably won't see them. Yep - Also, conditions to achieve numbers will never be the same on any given day. I am not sure we ca say achieving 34C today will guarantee anything tomorrow as starting conditions will be different |
Mark
Beckton, SE London |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,755
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Arome ensembles showing a few members going over 40C even as far north as the Midlands. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
They say it's always darkest before the dawn. But sometimes it's darkest just before the tornado flattens your house.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 23/07/2013(UTC)
Posts: 251
Location: Lowton, nr Warrington
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I'm at a funeral at 1.30 tomorrow. Looking like a great afternoon to wear a black suit 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 390  Location: Reigate, Surrey - 105m ASL
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Originally Posted by: Rob K And Langdon Bay is cooler now than it was overnight! 19.5C at 10am. There's a wonderful article in the Evening Standard that plays fast and lose with the meteorology as usual. They spend two paragraphs highlighting how Langdon Bay would have broken the maximin night temperature, if it hadn't in fact been cooler. I know what they mean, but it made me chuckle. Coincidentally, Reigate yesterday would have become the new holder for the all time high in England, if it had just been warmer. And of course, there was the obligatory picture of a girl in a bikini. She was at Glastonbury, but don't worry about the calendar too much. |
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL
Summer max so far: 36C at home, 38C at work
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 46,020 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: andy-manc I'm at a funeral at 1.30 tomorrow. Looking like a great afternoon to wear a black suit I'm at my youngest's 'Leavers Assembly' in a small primary school assembly hall. It gets like a sauna when the temp outside's in the teens. It's going to be purgatory tomorrow. Only saving grace is it's first thing in the morning. |
"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 390 Location: Reigate, Surrey - 105m ASL
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Yep - Also, conditions to achieve numbers will never be the same on any given day. I am not sure we ca say achieving 34C today will guarantee anything tomorrow as starting conditions will be different I think you're permitted to be a little unscientific in this thread aren't you?  |
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL
Summer max so far: 36C at home, 38C at work
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,766
Location: Manchester
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Originally Posted by: Tim A Think whether the cloud develops Mid-Afternoon could be a factor as to whether records are broken in the north. Met Office has Leeds at 35c now, but also showers/thunderstorms from 4pm onwards. Do you have the link for Manchester Uni to add to my bookmarks? York University used to have a station on their roof also, but it seems it is down for repairs. http://whitworth.cas.manchester.ac.uk/current/index.html Here you go. I wonder if the 33.7C highest ever Manchester temp in 1990 was at the Airport? I'd presume so. |
Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,828
Location: Devon
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow I'm at my youngest's 'Leavers Assembly' in a small primary school assembly hall. It gets like a sauna when the temp outside's in the teens. It's going to be purgatory tomorrow. Only saving grace is it's first thing in the morning. Teens? |
Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 17,837
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Originally Posted by: Rob K For which areas though? The highest modelled temperatures on the models (35C+) are in places outside the synoptic network so we probably won't see them. So highest temperature recorded today anywhere in the UK. I'm basing the threasholds on a comparison with the highest pixel in most model forecasts vs the highest observed maxima. I realize I'm not comparing like with like but I don't think it matters too much, the two quantities are still related. I reckon we would expect to see 35C today as an observed maximun if we were also expecting to see 38.5C tommorow. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,755
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: Quantum So highest temperature recorded today anywhere in the UK. I'm basing the threasholds on a comparison with the highest pixel in most model forecasts vs the highest observed maxima. I realize I'm not comparing like with like but I don't think it matters too much, the two quantities are still related. I reckon we would expect to see 35C today as an observed maximun if we were also expecting to see 38.5C tommorow. But today the modelled area of 35C+ coincides with only a small part of the country with basically no observations, so it would make more sense to compare the areas that are actually covered. Most models give about 32-33C for those areas. |
They say it's always darkest before the dawn. But sometimes it's darkest just before the tornado flattens your house.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 49,637
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I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 521 Location: Birdlip, Gloucestershire 292m asl
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Belgium and the Netherlands have both broken their all time records today. |
Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,755
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow. Really? I think 38.5C is almost a gimme, but I don't think we will quite reach 40C, which is what people are more concerned about. |
They say it's always darkest before the dawn. But sometimes it's darkest just before the tornado flattens your house.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/11/2010(UTC) Posts: 6,788 Location: Leeds
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I think the extent of the heat will be noteworthy regardless. The Met Office shows a huge area of 35c covering much of England, from Kent up to Yorkshire and from Worcestershire to Lincolnshire. The national record might not go but I imagine many places will break their local records. |
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 7,819  Location: North Yorkshire
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Very much depends on cloud coming up from the south associated with showers that are likely to start moving up from France later tomorrow afternoon. Timing on that will be a key factor. |
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be
Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 6,074 Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow. The only thing that will stop the record going in my opinion is cloud cover , a few storms likely in the afternoon may scupper it. But i think 39c will happen somewhere.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 3,056
Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze I've seen nothing today to change my view that we are likely to fall just short of Aug 2003 tomorrow. What are you seeing that makes you unconvinced? |
Mark
Beckton, SE London |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/06/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,445
Location: North Downs, East Kent
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Over the last 10 hours, the Met Office automated output has dialled back the projected max down the hill in Wye tomorrow by 2C - from 38C to 36C. I don't think we will see the all-time record broken tomorrow.
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 49,637
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 What are you seeing that makes you unconvinced? Cloud cover and risk of showers as others have flagged up. Also models aren't consistent enough. Arpege always (IME) is similar to UKV. None of the others have consistently been on board. Edited by user 24 July 2019 14:55:35(UTC)
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Late July Heatwave - potential record breaker?
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