Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

22 Pages«<1314151617>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Online Rob K  
#281 Posted : 23 July 2019 17:48:33(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,898
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

Jersey aside, what's the warmest temp we saw today? I know at least 32.5C but beyond that I'm not sure.

 

 

List of maxima so far here: https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=United+K&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2019&mes=07&day=23&hora=20&ndays=1&Send=send

 

NB this currently only shows the highest hourly reading, as the daily max doesn't get sent until 1800Z (7pm). It should update soon after 7pm.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline TimS  
#282 Posted : 23 July 2019 18:27:37(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,788
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: hobensotwo Go to Quoted Post
Didn't quite make the record here in Jersey today. Maxed out at 35.7c. The 2003 record was 36.0c, making today the second hottest on record.

Close but no cigar. For me slightly fresher air comming in for tomorrow, so I don't think the record will go for me during this heat wave.

Looks like the final max was 36.0C, so a tie.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#283 Posted : 23 July 2019 18:35:59(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 6,186
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

it's looking like Thursday could be the hottest day on record in Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands and maybe even the UK as well, that would be quite a day and unique I would have thought.

 

Online Rob K  
#284 Posted : 23 July 2019 18:38:52(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,898
Location: Northeast Hampshire

6am-6pm maxima now in. Northolt just pipped Heathrow by 0.1C, with 33.7C. Still didn't beat June 29.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#285 Posted : 23 July 2019 19:19:39(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,111
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

it's looking like Thursday could be the hottest day on record in Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands and maybe even the UK as well, that would be quite a day and unique I would have thought.

 

Going for 40 and plus for that lot.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#286 Posted : 23 July 2019 20:14:09(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 3,170
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

The Metoffice App has now also nudged to 38C. The Highest I have ever seen it.
Mark

Beckton, SE London

Offline Bolty  
#287 Posted : 23 July 2019 20:14:51(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,682
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post
The Metoffice App has now also nudged to 38C. The Highest I have ever seen it.

Yep, even the Met Office now hinting at a possible record-breaker!

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Lothian Snowman  
#288 Posted : 23 July 2019 20:44:39(UTC)
Lothian Snowman

Rank: Member

Joined: 29/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 16
Location: East Lothian

I know a lot of people get excited about potential high temperature records getting broken. Is it just me or does the year after year threat to high temperature records falling not simply indicate how the world is slowly but inexorably creeping its way to a deeply troubling future climate. The world needs to wake up to it. I would be much happier to see a year of average temperatures, but those days may be behind us already.
Offline The Beast from the East  
#289 Posted : 23 July 2019 20:58:55(UTC)
The Beast from the East

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 34,099
Man
Location: Purley, Surrey

Originally Posted by: Lothian Snowman Go to Quoted Post
I know a lot of people get excited about potential high temperature records getting broken. Is it just me or does the year after year threat to high temperature records falling not simply indicate how the world is slowly but inexorably creeping its way to a deeply troubling future climate. The world needs to wake up to it. I would be much happier to see a year of average temperatures, but those days may be behind us already.

indeed. As previously discussed, back in the 90s 25c was considered hot, now that’s normal. Of course 1976 was a freak 

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Offline Gusty  
#290 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:06:33(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,580
Man
Location: Folkestone

ECM 12z

The heat is exceptional and increasingly extensive.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Tim A  
#291 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:12:05(UTC)
Tim A

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 09/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 13,723
Man
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: Bolty Go to Quoted Post

 

Yep, even the Met Office now hinting at a possible record-breaker!

That map is staggering. Is this really going to happen. Heat much more widespread than 2003,  more like 1990 but more of a focus on the east.

Met Office automated for Leeds has gone from 28c a few days ago to 34c now. Keeps climbing. 

 

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

Offline LeedsLad123  
#292 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:13:55(UTC)
LeedsLad123

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,797
Man
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: Tim A Go to Quoted Post

 

That map is staggering. Is this really going to happen. Heat much more widespread than 2003,  more like 1990 but more of a focus on the east.

Met Office automated for Leeds has gone from 28c a few days ago to 34c now. Keeps climbing. 

 

 

Just about to point that out - that’s the highest temperature I’ve ever seen forecast for Leeds on the Met Office website.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Global Warming  
#293 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:15:54(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,285

HARMONIE 18z is going for it. 40C in Kent on Thursday - around Gravesend!

I think this model, unlike most others, has a tendency to overplay temperatures a little and push the highest temperature too far east.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie/runs/2019072318/harmonie-41-45-0.png?23-23

WRF has 37C in the London area which is perhaps more realistic in terms of geography but probably a degree or so too low

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2019072312/nmm-0-52-1.png?23-18

ALARO wants 37C in Norwich tomorrow

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6234/alaro-41-26-1_igi1.png

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Whether Idle  
#294 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:21:48(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,518
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

HARMONIE 18z is going for it. 40C in Kent on Thursday - around Gravesend!

I think this model, unlike most others, has a tendency to overplay temperatures a little and push the highest temperature too far east.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie/runs/2019072318/harmonie-41-45-0.png?23-23

WRF has 37C in the London area which is perhaps more realistic in terms of geography but probably a degree or so too low

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2019072312/nmm-0-52-1.png?23-18

ALARO wants 37C in Norwich tomorrow

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6234/alaro-41-26-1_igi1.png

Harmonie is in harmony with my thinking - Ive predicted 39 at Brogdale Thursday, I may be one degree too low.  

The important thing is - can the 10 August 2003, 38.5c all time record be taken?  I think so!

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Offline Gusty  
#295 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:27:51(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,580
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

The important thing is - can the 10 August 2003, 38.5c all time record be taken?  I think so!

Me too, we lived in a cooler world 16 years ago.

It has long been felt that 10th August 2003 could have gone a little higher if the mid level cloud in association with the cold front hadn't arrived around 4pm. Synoptically we are fairly similar to 2003. From memory 850's that day were around 21c. I think we are looking at 23c this time.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Quantum  
#296 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:29:47(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 18,183

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

Me too, we lived in a cooler world 16 years ago.

It has long been felt that 10th August 2003 could have gone a little higher if the mid level cloud in association with the cold front hadn't arrived around 4pm. Synoptically we are fairly similar to 2003. From memory 850's that day were around 21c. I think we are looking at 23c this time.

More solar radiation at this time of year too?

 

Tactical voting information during the general election campaign for Leave voters

https://brexitalliance.blogspot.com/

@_BrexitAlliance

Offline Gusty  
#297 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:31:52(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,580
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 More solar radiation at this time of year too?

 

There is that too Q. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Bertwhistle  
#298 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:32:52(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,147
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East Go to Quoted Post

 

indeed. As previously discussed, back in the 90s 25c was considered hot, now that’s normal. Of course 1976 was a freak 

And August 1911? Sep 1906? Oct 1921? April 1949? 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline TimS  
#299 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:36:57(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,788
Location: Brockley

SSTs are currently around 16-17C in the channel. Not that warm, but it doesn’t seem like they’ll make much difference to the air given maxes. They were warmer in Aug 2003 by about a degree and a half I think.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline TimS  
#300 Posted : 23 July 2019 21:42:37(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,788
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

 

And August 1911? Sep 1906? Oct 1921? April 1949? 

I looked through the annual maxes from TA Harley earlier (posted up thread). There have been very hot days throughout the last century. What’s really noticeable though is the increase in frequency, particularly of 34 and 35C+ maxes, since 2000 even in otherwise poor years, and the sharp reduction in sub-30C annual maxes. None since 1993. 

The hot extremes are getting much more common, and the cool (or “not very hot”) extremes much rarer, as you’d expect statistically with the shift of 1-1.5C in averages that we’ve seen.

The run of very hot annual maxes since 2013 is the most remarkable of all. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Users browsing this topic
22 Pages«<1314151617>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP