Thunderstorm warnings issued by the MetO:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-07-23

 

---

Thunderstorm warnings issued by the MetO:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-07-23

 

Looks impressive on that map. I don't think that I've ever seen a single Met Office warning like that covering the vast majority of the UK in this fashion before.

 

---

 

Looks impressive on that map. I don't think that I've ever seen a single Met Office warning like that covering the vast majority of the UK in this fashion before.

 

I think that is because the risk area is big, but the potential in any one area is not necessarily all that great- hence the low risk/moderate impact matrix. With storms it is always difficult to be more precise until things actually get going. Many people in that warning area will see nothing at all - that's the nature of these things.

The warning area itself may well be refined later on today.

---

Vis Sat is interesting down over the Bay of Biscay and into NW France. Some signs of showers getting going over the Brest Peninsula. 

---

And Clare Nasir in the latest metoffice video also mentions the storms being high based so frequent lightning and gusty winds being the biggest impact rather than rain.

Expecting the first thunder storm of the year later for south Dorset.

---

Vis Sat is interesting down over the Bay of Biscay and into NW France. Some signs of showers getting going over the Brest Peninsula. 

I'll be in Wharfedale (Otley) tonight Ben so if I start reporting I'm to your WSW not Edinburgh!

---

In Torquay for work - elevated convection initiated looking south.

---

 

I'll be in Wharfedale (Otley) tonight Ben so if I start reporting I'm to your WSW not Edinburgh!

Good location I would think Jerry!

---

In Torquay for work - elevated convection initiated looking south.

Afternoon Neil. Could be a lively evening/night for some. 

---

Looks like a small shower has already broken out just east of Portsmouth

---

Looks like a small shower has already broken out just east of Portsmouth

I think you mean Plymouth 

knew it began with P

---

Some light showers have reached the SW, but signs now of proper storms brewing north of the Channel Islands with sferics coming through.

---

You can see on the satalitle (sat24.com) the first proper cell forming south east of plymouth going directly north... quick check of lightning and radar and for something very tiny its packing a punch...

Good signs for later... this atmosphere is primed.

---

You can see on the satalitle (sat24.com) the first proper cell forming south east of plymouth going directly north... quick check of lightning and radar and for something very tiny its packing a punch...

Good signs for later... this atmosphere is primed.

TBH, I'm not really expecting things to really get going until later this evening, post 8pm. NW England might be a good place to be...

 

---

Unless something develops later I think we will have to wait for another time to see the first lightning of the summer/year in this part of Dorset. The high level thundery cloud that passed over recently gave nothing here in rain. Sunny and a beautiful evening again.

---

Unless something develops later I think we will have to wait for another time to see the first lightning of the summer/year in this part of Dorset. The high level thundery cloud that passed over recently gave nothing here in rain. Sunny and a beautiful evening again.

That area of rain wasn't actually widely modelled anyway, and certainly not part of the main potential. I'd hold fire on calling it a bust for your neck of the woods just now. Things are developing on t'other side of the Channel.

---

Fingers crossed. Rainfall forecast shows it getting here about 5.30am. Will it be electrified?

It’s not a given for any particular area even at this late stage but the blend of ppn output from the 12Z models didn’t really initiate activity into the SW until after 22.00hrs anyway.
I don’t understand the comments sometimes.

Note: Ben does a great job on these nowcast convection threads and shows impressive patience - the four hour vigil in SW Arkansas obviously helped 😉🌪

---