Japs agree High pressure far to strong to our N/E forcing any attack away to our N/W marvellous run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php

 

 

 This is one of those questions that gets raised every few months. Next up must be the turn of the "the UM 144 is widely considered a joke in the business". 

It was a contested issue, but now I've had confirmation from the MetO themselves (page back 5 or so on this thread), I'd kind of hoped we'd put this one to bed once and for all. But we keep going, and going....

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That ensemble graph is one to frame. 850s break the 20C barrier then come back for a second burst and almost hit 25C!

 

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FSD Thursday Bank

 

It was a contested issue, but now I've had confirmation from the MetO themselves (page back 5 or so on this thread), I'd kind of hoped we'd put this one to bed once and for all. But we keep going, and going....

 Perhaps we can start a "weather bingo" in the FA with all of the common "statements of fact" and questions that are repeated again and again.

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 Perhaps we can start a "weather bingo" in the FA with all of the common "statements of fact" and questions that are repeated again and again.

I can't wait for winter and the "Extended MetO" charts. Again.  

FWIW the MOGREPS-G Control runs at a lower resolution (as you'd expect). But there was a hint that the deterministic might be running to T+168 at some point...

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 This is one of those questions that gets raised every few months. Next up must be the turn of the "the UM 144 is widely considered a joke in the business". 

oh come on, Ian’s whereabouts is raised far more often than that 🤣

jokes aside, the term ‘extended’ is still appropriate here.

oh come on, Ian’s whereabouts is raised far more often than that 🤣

jokes aside, the term ‘extended’ is still appropriate here.

Sadly it's not, as it gets posted as "UKMO Extended", and the only other UMKO charts that are posted are the deterministic run of the unified model. Most folks think that they are having a sneak peak at what the UKMO deterministic shows after the widely available T+144, and it's not. 

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Sadly it's not, as it gets posted as "UKMO Extended", and the only other UMKO charts that are posted are the deterministic run of the unified model. Most folks think that they are having a sneak peak at what the UKMO deterministic shows after the widely available T+144, and it's not. 

So it has nothing to do with ukmo whatsoever?

So it has nothing to do with ukmo whatsoever?

It's part of the UKMO's Unified Model global ensemble suite.

The issue has been that it gets posted as a continuation of the usual run we see on TWO/WZ etc. when in fact it is a different run executed on lower resolution.

Be honest, when you posted the chart what did you think it represented? 

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It's part of the UKMO's Unified Model global ensemble suite.

The issue has been that it gets posted as a continuation of the usual run we see on TWO/WZ etc. when in fact it is a different run executed on lower resolution.

Be honest, when you posted the chart what did you think it represented? 

This is technically enlightening but undeniably has ‘ukmo’ written on it... and indeed is what one may consider ‘extended’ output. So I don’t really understand what the big hoo-har is about the original post- There’s no reason to discount the link.

This is technically enlightening but undeniably has ‘ukmo’ written on it... and indeed is what one may consider ‘extended’ output. So I don’t really understand what the big hoo-har is about the original post- There’s no reason to discount the link.

There's no hoo-har, and apologies if it seems that way 

If I posted a GFS Control run chart at T+168 as being "GFS Extended" from the Op run at T+144, then it wouldn't be correct.

That's the only point I'm trying to make. The link is perfectly valid as a continuation of the lower resolution UKMO global model ensemble suite, so alongside the previous charts of that ENS run it make perfect sense. Trouble is I think almost 100% of members think it's a continuation of the deterministic run that we see on TWO/WZ etc. when it's posted. 

Anyway, too hot here. Time for the fans.

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There's no hoo-har, and apologies if it seems that way 

If I posted a GFS Control run chart at T+168 as being "GFS Extended" from the Op run at T+144, then it wouldn't be correct.

That's the only point I'm trying to make. The link is perfectly valid as a continuation of the lower resolution UKMO global model ensemble suite, so alongside the previous charts of that ENS run it make perfect sense. Trouble is I think almost 100% of members think it's a continuation of the deterministic run that we see on TWO/WZ etc. when it's posted. 

Anyway, too hot here. Time for the fans.

all good here and thanks for elaborating 👍

You’d imagine the Wetter output going to 168, 192 to make a natural assumption, for many 

Model output (old): how o Earth did Southampton get 3 x 35°C days out of this? (especially before the big surface warm up).

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=noaa&jaar=1976&maand=06&dag=28

Easy with uppers close to 850 nearby and an off shore wind .

Once te current peaks have subsided a bit, the interest will be in the LP off SW Ireland. Quite a wide variety of proposals, from standing off and re-loading the heat (ECM), pushng in some cooler Atlantic air (GFS) or linking up with lower pressure in the Low Countries to generate an easterly flow (BBC last night). Keep watching!

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Models and ENS seem to have backed off a prolonging of the spell this morning. The breakdown is looking a tad messy with a little lozenge of low pressure from NL to Ireland blocking access to the Scandy high.

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Saturday suddenly looking like a washout on some on the models this morning for some areas

This will come as a massive shock to the system if correct temps dropping 10c or more in 24hrs between Friday and Saturday northern Scotland the hot spot holding onto the upper 20s with some warmth also holding on in the east

The peak still looks to be Thursday with a chance of 100f/37.7c somewhere in or around London

38.5 not looking under threat unfortunately/ fortunately (depending on your viewpoint).
I’ll be heading back to Sussex from Cornwall on Thursday so it will be interesting to feel the temp rise by about 10 degrees during the journey.

38.5 not looking under threat unfortunately/ fortunately (depending on your viewpoint).
I’ll be heading back to Sussex from Cornwall on Thursday so it will be interesting to feel the temp rise by about 10 degrees during the journey.

Have you reviewed all the data? 

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