Model output (old): how o Earth did Southampton get 3 x 35°C days out of this? (especially before the big surface warm up).

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=noaa&jaar=1976&maand=06&dag=28

ECM back into minor trough disruption mode on the 12z. Spicy.

 

I remember 1 July 2015 being quite cloudy - indeed we even had some very large raindrops in the afternoon and the temperature fell no lower than 28C. Very strange experience.

June 29th this year was the same, I suspect the two setups were very similar, both essentially one-day wonders. I mentioned this in the daily notes I take. They say -Some sun in the morning until mid afternoon, then mainly cloudy with some brightness at times – splashy raindrops at 28.6C!

I was sitting outside and I remember the drops evaporated very quickly after hitting the gound. If you weren't outside at the time, you'd probably never have realised it was happening. I wonder what the highest temperature in the UK is that rain has been observed, probably no higher than the low 30s I would imagine. But that is obviously a discussion for another thread.....

Apparently the ECM has followed ICON and gone with 34C on Thursday

It's got 36c quite widely  Essex and Kent. 

ECM maxing out at 36C, 1C cooler than before.

 

 

It's got 36c quite widely  Essex and Kent. 

 

Oh that’s good news. It wasn’t a HD view so couldn’t make it out properly

 

Oh that’s good news. It wasn’t a HD view so couldn’t make it out properly

ECM was 2c below the UK max today so 38c remains a real prospect for Thursday.  The heat looks a bit more west as well so maybe Heathrow and northolt the stations to watch. 

ECM also has another mini plume next week high 20s in the SE Monday to Wednesday. 

To be honest it’s a fab summer run with the scadi high winning out.

ECM also has another mini plume next week high 20s in the SE Monday to Wednesday. 

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Yep, you have to say also Ben that’s a fab gfs set for London always on the warm/ v warm side.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

It's interesting that the ECM gives the block more cujones... it's typical of the way it handles winter blocking in the same area, and more readily diverts the energy from the Atlantic under the block. There may be an emerging trend here toward blocking pushing back post t+144. Fascinating times... meanwhile lots of heat and storms to come.

Yep, you have to say also Ben that’s a fab gfs set for London always on the warm/ v warm side.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

 

 

that’s a remarkable suite. Crikey. Warm, hot even, in the SE this weekend?

A further notable softening of the cool down on the 12z GEFS - a process which started with the 0Z.

In fact on some members there is barely a cool down at all.

Interesting times...

A fab ecm mean with High pressure winning  out as we head into August 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0

UKM extended going for continued HP influence for the south east:
https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_01/ukm2.2019020500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.png.3f8c82dac593592fa08bd069154848d5.png

Where’s Ian today? He’s been awfully quiet the past 48 hours.

That chart is not the extended chart from the UMKO run that we normally see. There's no such thing as a T+168 chart on the deterministic run, just yet ()

That chart is an ensemble run from the UKMO Unified Model MOGREPS-M ensemble suite - the Control Run most likely. 

Indeed D P also very dry for S/E

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

 

 

that’s a remarkable suite. Crikey. Warm, hot even, in the SE this weekend?

That chart is an ensemble run from the UKMO Unified Model MOGREPS-M ensemble suite - the Control Run most likely. 

 This is one of those questions that gets raised every few months. Next up must be the turn of the "the UM 144 is widely considered a joke in the business".