Such a shame Gravesend is no longer running, it would be in prime position this week and I reckon would maybe see 39C. ICON has the highest temps around Cambridge, though ,showing 37C there.

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Such a shame Gravesend is no longer running, it would be in prime position this week and I reckon would maybe see 39C. ICON has the highest temps around Cambridge, though ,showing 37C there.

Does the metoffice have a full list of their official sites?

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Such a shame Gravesend is no longer running, it would be in prime position this week and I reckon would maybe see 39C. ICON has the highest temps around Cambridge, though ,showing 37C there.

Brogdale (current record holder) is the one to watch.

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Someone should start a heatwave thread...

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Brogdale (current record holder) is the one to watch.

Brogdale (Faversham) got the prize last year too - 35.3C on 26th July. The most remarkable thing about that is it got the minimum for the year too, -14.2C on the 28th Feb.

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The GEFS charts (both t850hPa and t2m) paint a very warm picture consistently for the working week “breaking down” to a a much more average picture by the weekend. I would also expect some storm potential at times during the week.

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Does the metoffice have a full list of their official sites?

 

Map here but it's a but out of date as it still shows Gravesend. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations

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Brogdale (Faversham) got the prize last year too - 35.3C on 26th July. The most remarkable thing about that is it got the minimum for the year too, -14.2C on the 28th Feb.

Its the "continental touch" as my Dad aptly put it to me once.  Kent can get a taste of that climate, IF the conditions are perfect.  

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The 03Z run of the UKV model is showing 39C for London (chart posted at NW: https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_07/39c.png )

 

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2m temp anomaly forecast for between days 10 and 15 (EC mean). It is very notable how the eastern half of Europe is refusing to warm up to any significant degree so far this summer, and this trend looks likely to continue for a while yet.

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ECM better than GFS for the 'beyond the brief heatwave' period, although neither are exactly settled for the majority of the country.

 

 

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With the intense continental heat never far away from the south, I would not be at all surprised if we had another crack at 40c in early to mid August too. This summer is turning into a pretty exceptional one again.

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06z GFS and GEFS showing a bit more heat and potential reloads lingering into next week. Interesting to see we still have quite a lot of spread beyond Thursday - just shows what an intense low does to model predictability.

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06z GFS and GEFS showing a bit more heat and potential reloads lingering into next week. Interesting to see we still have quite a lot of spread beyond Thursday - just shows what an intense low does to model predictability.

Indeed the 06Z Ens introduce quite a bit more scatter after Thursday and the members which take the 850s below 5C in the immediate aftermath of the cold front have evaporated.

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All models showing it being quite cloudy on Thursday across the whole country, which if the temperatures are correct is going to make for a very strange, stuffy kind of day. High cloud, not low stuff, but at best it looks very hazy. Projected sunshine around 6 hours out of available 16.

Tomorrow is the sunniest day of the week by a long way.

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All models showing it being quite cloudy on Thursday across the whole country, which if the temperatures are correct is going to make for a very strange, stuffy kind of day. High cloud, not low stuff, but at best it looks very hazy. Projected sunshine around 6 hours out of available 16.

Tomorrow is the sunniest day of the week by a long way.

I remember 1 July 2015 being quite cloudy - indeed we even had some very large raindrops in the afternoon and the temperature fell no lower than 28C. Very strange experience.

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12z ICON still has 18c - 20c 850s on Saturday afternoon in EA and SE. 

 Heat eventually goes Monday morning. 

 

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Seems as if the hi-res models are nudging the plume westwards again a bit more on Thursday, which also translates into the heat hanging about a bit more on Friday. If correct, looking at Arpege, we could see temperatures over 32C as far west as the Welsh borders, and as far north as Liverpool, with temps over 35C quite generously shared up through the midlands - so not just a south east event.

The 37C hotspot keeps shifting round from run to run, but still feels to me like the likely peak heat. Certainly hot enough!

 

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Well, GEFS set are very interesting indeed. Some prolongation going on - and the op is a cool outlier even on Thursday. P04 gives us a globally warmed version of June-July 1976.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

This is a really interesting set of Ensembles on the 12z. The cool down after Thursday is far less pronounced and temperatures stay above average, quite appreciably so.

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