BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable outlook with rain at times but warm

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Saturday 13 July – Sunday 21 July

Mostly fine at first, then unsettled and cooler

This weekend will gradually become drier and settled thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the west. However, on Saturday a band of cloud and showery rain will affect the central spine of Great Britain. The best of the dry weather and sunny spells is likely to be over western and south-western parts of the UK. On Sunday, much of the UK will be dry with some bright or sunny intervals but isolated showers are possible over hills and coasts in the north and west. Quite warm for most this weekend but staying cooler and cloudier near to some North Sea coasts.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry and warm for many with the area of high pressure still influencing the weather. However, showery rain is expected to spread from the Atlantic over parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland by Tuesday. The middle to latter part of next week is then likely to see a significant change in the weather pattern for most of the UK. Wetter, breezier and somewhat cooler weather appears likely to spread from the west as rain-bearing low pressure areas are pushed towards the country by the jet stream. All areas should see some rainfall - there are just slight chances that rain stays further away to the north.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 28 July

Wet and breezy at first, then drier and warmer

The last full week of July is likely to continue the changeable theme to our weather. Initially, it is expected to be showery and rather cool for many because of low pressure areas lingering nearby. As the week progresses, low pressure should lift away northwards, allowing increasingly lengthy drier and warmer periods of weather to develop across the country. Most places should see some warm sunshine returning with England and Wales potentially becoming very warm.

However, there is a significant risk that the showery and breezy conditions persist for longer than expected, particularly in the north. This uncertainty in the forecast is partly because we may see the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry reaching close to our shores and weather prediction models often struggle to resolve these features more than a week in advance.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 11 August

Wettest in the north. Warm and drier in the south

High pressure should bring some decent periods of dry and warm weather for the end of July. However, indications are for northern and western parts of the UK will see a return to wetter and breezier weather at times through early August as fronts re-emerge from the Atlantic. Central, southern and eastern areas of England are expected to see the best of the dry and warm weather with fewer outbreaks of rain reaching those areas.

The southern half of the UK is expected to have temperatures a little above the seasonal average through early August. Further north, it is likely to be less warm with temperatures near to the seasonal average. However, there appear to be chances that drier, settled conditions could remain more widespread across the UK.

Further ahead

Will the changeable weather conditions persist for the country? We will also take a closer look what impacts Tropical Storm Barry, currently affecting the southern USA, might have for the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 18 July - Saturday 27 July

A band of showery rain will move east across the UK on Thursday, probably clearing into the North Sea through the afternoon. Brighter and fresher conditions with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers following, mainly in the north and west. By the weekend into the following week, conditions will probably stay changeable and breezy at times, with showers or longer spells of rain but also brighter and drier spells. It may tend to become generally drier and brighter, more especially in the south and southeast, with the more changeable conditions persisting across northwestern parts of the UK. Temperatures will generally be near normal, but warm at times, mainly in the south and east. Perhaps a very warm and humid interlude in the southeast.

Sunday 28 July - Sunday 11 August

The forecast is very uncertain at this stage, with mixed signals for higher or lower pressure by the end of July. However, there are signs of a possible more settled and drier interlude for many. Into August, there are very weak signs of some rain, possibly thundery outbreaks, developing across parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above the average overall, especially in the south and east, where possibly rather warm and humid at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 19 July - Sunday 28 July

Probably turning more widely unsettled on Friday, with rain and stronger winds moving northeast across the UK. The heaviest rain will most likely be across southern and western parts, although there is some uncertainty in the forecast at this stage. Into the weekend and the following week, conditions will probably stay changeable and breezy at times, with showers or longer spells of rain but also some brighter and drier spells. It may become generally drier and brighter, more especially in the south and southeast, with the more changeable conditions persisting across northwestern parts of the UK. Temperatures will generally be near normal, but warm at times, mainly in the south and east. Perhaps a very warm and humid interlude in the southeast.

Monday 29 July - Monday 12 August

The forecast is very uncertain at this stage, with mixed signals for higher or lower pressure by the end of July. However, there are signs of a possible more settled and drier interlude for many. Into August, there are very weak signs of some rain, possibly thundery outbreaks, developing across parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above the average overall, especially in the south and east, where possibly rather warm and humid at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 21 July - Tuesday 30 July

Sunday will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers across northern Britain, with largely dry conditions to close out the weekend in the south. Into the start of next week, low pressure is most likely to be close to northwest Britain, bringing stronger winds and occasionally heavy rain. Further southeast, it should be mostly dry with the potential to tap into very warm air drifting north out of Europe. Towards midweek, the wetter and somewhat cooler weather in the northwest looks to push further southeast, displacing the warmth and sunshine here. By the end of the month, a more widely changeable pattern looks most likely, with the wettest weather most likely further to the northwest, and sunshine more prevalent in the southeast.

Wednesday 1 August - Wednesday 14 August 

As we move into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to pan out above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Monday 22 Jul - Wednesday 31 Jul

This period will likely see a northwest to southeast split in the weather across the UK with northwestern parts experiencing spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, as well as some periods of strong wind bringing a risk of coastal gales. By contrast, the southern and southeastern parts of the UK should see much drier and warmer weather, which could become hot and rather humid at times, especially early to mid next week. The south and southeast will not be without rain but it will be less frequent than in the northwest. The weather signals become more mixed as we head towards the end of July, but the northwest to southeast split in the weather will most probably continue through this period.

Thursday 1 Aug - Thursday 15 Aug

As we move early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

The unsettled weather pattern lingers into August

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Wednesday 17 July – Sunday 21 July

Turning unsettled with a wet end to the week

A wetter and more unsettled end to the week is expected across the UK, although the wettest weather is expected for Scotland and Northern Ireland. On Wednesday, rain will spread in from the west from the morning, reaching western Britain by midday and spreading into central Britain into the afternoon. Rain may be heavy in places, and the odd rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out later. It will stay wet overnight as rain continues to spread across the country, but Scotland and Northern Ireland will be drier.

On Thursday, as rain clears to the east for England, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected in the north of the UK, with a few afternoon showers likely further south. A stronger frontal system arriving Friday morning from the south west will bring widespread rain with some embedded heavy showers and thunderstorms. Local downpours are likely with some of the thunderstorms, which are expected to move through Friday afternoon and evening, lingering into Saturday morning. As the rain gradually clears to the east on Saturday, most places will turn dry and fine with a fresh westerly breeze. However, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon in the south east. Sunday a weak ridge of high pressure will move overhead from the west, keeping things mostly fine and dry save for a few isolated showers in the west. These are expected to become more widespread later in the evening and overnight. Temperatures are expected to remain near average for most places, although the best of the warmth will be on Wednesday in the south.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 28 July

Wet and windy in the north; warmer in the south

The last full week of July will continue with the more unsettled trend, but there is expected to be a north-south split in the weather, with the northern half of the country tending to be wetter and windier. Meanwhile the southern half will see longer dry and warm spells between weak fronts. This is due to building high pressure in central Europe which will compete with the low pressure in the North Atlantic to govern the UK's weather. This high will also bring in some significant heat to Spain, France, and into Germany, which may occasionally reach into the south east of England.

The low pressure tracking into the UK through the week will be driven by the jet stream - which is a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. There is still a great deal of uncertainty on the strength of the jet stream next week, which is leading to low confidence in the forecast. The UK sits between two rather different air masses, one cool, wet, and windy to the north, and the other hot and dry to the south. A slightly weaker jet stream would allow some of the hotter air from the French heat wave to reach into the UK, resulting in some hot afternoons later in the week. At the same time a slightly stronger jet stream will see wet and windy weather dominate the weather and reach more regularly into the south.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 11 August

Often wet and windy with a few dry and warm breaks

For the end of July and through early August, the weather pattern is expected to remain dominated by low pressure in the North Atlantic. Progressive low pressure tracks will bring outbreaks of rain and some unseasonably windy weather to most of the UK, although more often to the northern half. There will be some drier and warmer spells between fronts, and these will tend to be longer lived for the southern half of the UK, especially the south east of England. These drier spells will be broken up by some fronts which at times will seem very wet for our unusually mostly dry Augusts.

High pressure is expected to gradually build into the area from the south east after it develops over the continent. This will mean that as we head into mid-August, the weather pattern will shift to more settled, drier, and warmer weather in the south and east of the country. The timing of this has been tricky to pin down so far. There is a risk that high pressure may build in much faster, and rain and winds will be pushed off to the west and north into the second week of August, leading to a more summer-like weather pattern. The main source of long-term forecast uncertainty is the potential for tropical storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean through August, which can have a large impact on the weather patterns over the UK. Hurricane season is in full swing, and conditions are perhaps becoming more favourable for some tropical storm development as we head into August, so confidence in the forecast remains low.

Further ahead

We will have a better idea on whether the UK will be tapping into any heat from France for the end of July, and how long it may stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Radar echoes from the south coast this afternoon

but according to BBC South today, not rain but flying ants! I didn't see any ants but rain even less in evidence.

Tuesday 23 Jul - Thursday 1 Aug

This period will tend to see a northwest to southeast split in the weather across the UK, with northwestern parts experiencing spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, as well as some periods of strong wind bringing a risk of coastal gales. By contrast, southern and southeastern parts of the UK should see much drier and warmer weather, which could be hot and rather humid at times, especially early to mid next week. Potential for thunderstorms to develop as any hot, settled weather breaks down from the west. Beyond that, the signals become more mixed although overall the northwest to southeast split will most probably continue. The south and southeast is likely to see some rain but it will be less frequent than in the northwest.

Friday 2 Aug - Friday 16 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional rain or thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

US weather: Temperature records set to fall as 'dangerous' heatwave predicted

Major cities are making plans to help people cope with the extreme temperatures set to arrive this weekend.

The National Weather Service is predicting high temperatures and humidity across several states, including Michigan and Kansas, while Washington DC will feel almost as hot as Death Valley in California. The capital will bake in a forecast high of 38C (100F), but it will feel closer to 43C (110F) - prompting mayor Muriel Bowser to declare a heat emergency.

https://news.sky.com/story/us-weather-temperature-records-set-to-fall-as-dangerous-heatwave-predicted-11765997

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Early hot spell


• Cooler westerlies soon return


• Rain and shine through August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/19/john-hammond-month-ahead-brief-blast-heat/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Early hot spell


• Cooler westerlies soon return


• Rain and shine through August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/19/john-hammond-month-ahead-brief-blast-heat/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Hammond was frequently on the pessimistic side of things throughout last summer, although he was eventually right when the weather turned poor in August. That year he was at odds with the met office seasonal forecasts though, whereas this year they seem to be aligned.

Wednesday 24 Jul - Friday 2 Aug

This period will tend to see a northwest to southeast split in the weather across the UK, with northwestern parts experiencing spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, as well as some periods of strong wind bringing a risk of coastal gales. By contrast, southern and southeastern parts of the UK should see much drier and warmer weather, which could be hot and rather humid at times, especially in the first half of the next week. Thunderstorms could develop as any hot, settled weather breaks down from the west. Beyond that, the forecast is more uncertain, but overall the northwest to southeast split will most probably continue. The south and southeast are likely to see some rain but it will be less frequent than in the northwest.

Saturday 3 Aug - Saturday 17 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional rain or thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Thursday 25 Jul - Saturday 3 Aug

A cold front is likely to make some progress eastwards across the UK on Thursday, with the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some hot or very hot conditions may persist in the east ahead of this, especially in the southeast. Into the weekend, confidence falls low, but following the cold front, fresher conditions will be the most likely. It will be mostly sunny, with a scattering of showers. A northwest to southeast split will be the most likely scenario. The northwest is likely to see further spells of rain and strong winds at times, with temperatures near or a little below average. The south and southeast are likely to see localised heavy rain, with thunderstorms possible, but it will stay warm or very warm into the start of August.

Sunday 4 Aug - Sunday 18 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. It is most likely that low pressure to the north and northwest of the UK will give further rise to showers or longer spells of rain in the northwest, with the better chance of drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will likely be above average, perhaps mostly in western and southern areas. However, confidence falls as we head through August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 26 Jul - Sunday 4 Aug

Overnight rain and thunderstorms will clear eastwards on Friday, to sunny spells and occasional showers. The showers will mainly be in the west, with a low risk of thunderstorms, and they will introduce fresher conditions. It will be breezy in the north, with further cloud and rain from the southwest later. Into the weekend, confidence falls low, but fresher conditions will be the most probable. A northwest to southeast split will be the most likely scenario. The northwest is likely to see further spells of rain and strong winds at times, with temperatures near or a little below average. The south and southeast are likely to see drier weather, and here it could still be warm into the start of August.

Monday 5 Aug - Monday 19 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. It is most likely that low pressure to the north and northwest of the UK will give further rise to showers or longer spells of rain in the northwest, with the better chance of drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will likely be above average, perhaps mostly in western and southern areas. However, confidence falls as we head through August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

The often wet and windy weather continues

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Saturday 20 July – Sunday 28 July

Heating up in the South next week, cooler later

A fairly unsettled Saturday will see a gradually shift into a more north-south split in the weather for the UK from Sunday and into next week for a time. Saturday will start off wet in the Southeast with some heavy showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. This rain will clear to the east by the late morning. Scattered heavy showers will then drift into all areas of Britain from the west in the late morning, and by the afternoon a few thunderstorms are expected in central and eastern Britain. These will produce locally frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

From Sunday and through into Tuesday, high pressure building in Central Europe will keep things fine and dry in the southern half of the UK, but the northern half will see plenty of rain, which will be heavy at times. There is a risk for some local flooding in West Scotland from Sunday through Tuesday. A heat wave expected to develop in France will bring in some hot air to the Southeast from Tuesday, with temperatures well above average and reaching into the low 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Staying a bit cooler up north, but still warmer than this week has been.

For the second half of the week, there is some uncertainty in the forecast based on a cold front arriving from the west. The jet stream - a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - is unusually strong for summertime in the United States and Atlantic. This will likely result in a cold front arriving on Thursday, bringing some relief from the heat but also a risk for some heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially in the North. Low pressure will then take over, and keep things unsettled and feeling cooler through the weekend.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 4 August

Cooler and more unsettled start to August

As we head into August, there is good support for low pressure systems to become more dominant weather features for North Europe, allowing Atlantic fronts to move through the UK. High pressure is also expected to ease in the near Continent, so fronts are expected to reach into southern areas of the UK as well as the north. For the first half of the week winds are expected to bring in some cooler polar air causing temperatures to dip to near or below average for late July/early August. This will be more noticeable in the west and north, with a cooler feeling onshore breeze. In general northern and western areas will see more frequent showers and cloudy skies, with the best of the dry and bright weather being in the south and east.

Fronts will bring in short-lived outbreaks of rain to all areas at times, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty on the day-to-day specifics. As the week progresses, low pressure is expected to gradually shift slightly northwards towards Iceland, which will likely bring in a return to the north-south split in the weather. The northern half of the UK will continue to see wetter and windier weather than typical for August, while the southern half of the UK turns a bit drier and brighter, although still occasional outbreaks of rain.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 18 August

Wet and windy, but drier at times in the South

For the first full week of August, low pressure will still be very much in charge of the weather pattern for the UK. This will bring in Atlantic fronts, outbreaks of rain and occasional thunderstorms, and windy weather to mostly northern regions. Occasionally the wetter and windier weather will reach into the southern half of the country, but it will generally be drier and brighter here. Going deeper into August, high pressure looks to become more influential in Central Europe again, which will push the low pressure near the UK even further north. While northern areas are still expected to remain unsettled and stormy at times, the South will turn mostly dry and bright, with temperatures climbing to a bit above average.

There currently aren't any strong signals for prolonged heat in either the UK or Central Europe through mid-August, but there is risk that another heat wave could develop with high pressure building into the Continent. Low pressure near the UK with the jet stream overhead will tend to mean any heat waves that do form will remain south of the UK, with just a chance for a brief hot spell or two lasting only a few days. There also isn't any strong signal for a remarkably wet or cold August either. The weather is expected to remain quite changeable with temperatures tending to linger near average with only brief deviations.

Further ahead

Taking a closer look at the first half of August, we will see if things look any better for a drier and sunnier summer to appear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Saturday 27 Jul - Monday 5 Aug

Low confidence in the forecast for the weekend, with uncertainty in regard to the track and development of an area of low pressure southwest of the UK. This may bring a spell of wet and windy weather northeastwards across the UK during Saturday and Sunday. However, it should stay largely dry in the east and southeast. It will remain very warm in the southeast, with some localised heavy rain or thunderstorms possible. Into next week and we are likely to see a northwest/southeast split in the weather across the UK, with further showers or longer spells of rain affecting northwestern parts, with a better chance of drier and warmer weather in the south and east. Temperatures will generally be above the average for the time of year.

Tuesday 6 Aug - Tuesday 20 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. It is most likely that low pressure to the north and northwest of the UK will give further showers or longer spells of rain in the northwest, with the better chance of drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will likely be above average, especially in western and southern areas. However, confidence falls as we head into late August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 28 Jul - Tuesday 6 Aug

On Sunday spells of heavy and possibly thundery rain may affect Scotland and the far east and northeast of England, especially during the morning. Elsewhere sunny spells and scattered showers, but with some central and southeastern parts staying dry. At the start of next week there'll most probably be a good deal of dry weather with sunny spells, with showers most likely in the west and southwest where there may be some longer spells of rain at times. During the first week of August wet and occasionally windy weather is expected to mainly affect the northwest, with a better chance of drier and warmer weather in the south and east. Temperatures will generally be above the average, and possibly hot at times in the southeast.

Wednesday 7 Aug - Wednesday 21 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather may develop more widely for a time. However, there is also an increasing risk of showers or thunderstorms developing in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially so in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cooler by the weekend, but more warm weather ahead

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Wednesday 24 July – Sunday 28 July

Hot today and tomorrow but cooler by the weekend

The current very warm or hot weather is expected to continue today and on Thursday, with some parts of the country likely to see record-breaking temperatures. There will be a lot of sunshine too, but some places will see some heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms affected the UK last night, these storms expected to clear away to the north and north-east during today.
The continuing hot weather is likely to spark off a few more thundery showers tomorrow, most likely across western and northern parts of the UK. Friday should see cooler conditions for most of the UK, although temperatures will still be a little above normal in many areas and the very warm, humid air could linger across the far south-east of England for much of the day.

There will be the chance of some showers too, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected. The weekend is a little bit more unsettled. A front is likely to linger close to or over eastern counties of England and over Scotland bringing a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain here. There is a slight chance that this front may drift further out into the North Sea, but for now we expect there to be some wet weather in Central, northern and eastern parts of the country on Saturday. South West England, Wales and Northern Ireland should be dry and sunny. Sunday will see a mix of sunny spells and showers. Temperatures should be near normal for the time of year.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 4 August

A little more unsettled but still warm for many

Low pressure is expected to sit close to the west of the UK for much of next week. As a result, the weather is looking changeable with some northern and western parts of the country a little wetter than normal due to showers and longer spells of rain. The same areas are also likely to be windier than normal for the time of year, although we don't currently expect any very windy days.
Central, southern and eastern areas may see some showers or perhaps even some thunderstorms, but over the week as a whole it is likely to be drier than normal in these areas, this mainly due to the proximity of high pressure.

Winds will tend to be from the south next week, drawing continental air across some parts of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be above normal in many parts of the country, although not to the scale we are seeing this week. Only Northern Ireland is expected to see temperatures near normal. The main alternative to our expected weather is for low pressure to move further eastwards across the UK. This would mean that the south and east also sees some wetter and windier conditions and won't be quite as warm.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 18 August

Some wet weather possible, but drier mid-month

There is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast for the first full week of August. The most likely case is that high pressure centered over Scandinavia will extend towards the UK, bringing dry and calm weather to northern parts of the country. At the same time, low pressure systems moving into France and then southern Europe are likely to bring spells of wetter and breezy or windy weather to the south of the UK at times. However, temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal in all areas of the UK.

There is the chance of more widespread low pressure systems at this time, which would bring unsettled weather to more of the country. Confidence increases a little as we head towards the middle of August. It is most likely that we will see high pressure becoming more dominant, so drier and calmer weather is likely for most areas - although Scotland could become a little wetter and windier then. There are indications that temperatures will lift further above normal in the south of the UK. Whether this is an early sign of another heatwave is uncertain, but a spell of very warm weather can't be ruled out at this stage.

Further ahead

We will take another look at the dry and warm weather in August, and see whether another heat-wave looks any more likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook