MWB with about 75% of members either as hot or hotter than the op - also maybe half with the heat backed a bit further west. Certainly 35C or slightly higher starting to look a good call for that day. 

My assessment is that 38C, 39C or even 40C still cannot be ruled out, and now just at D4-D6. 

Edited by user 20 July 2019 20:21:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

you dont get many ecm means looking like that at 72

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Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark.  You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day.

Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high 20s after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean.

Edited by user 20 July 2019 20:49:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Just 120 hours away

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Originally Posted by: TimS

GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown.

Supported by BBC WftWA now saying breakdown on Friday - and still hedging bets about -just possibly - a thundery low in Biscay as scenario 2

EDIT - added Sunday am - the above confirmed by ensembles, ECM and GFS charts this morning, though ECM keeps it pleasantly warm in the south. Mildly surprising that there's no indication of more than scattered storms associated with the breakdown.

Further ahead, the agreement of the ensembles for the foreseeable for a spell of close-to-average temps and pptn looks too good to be true - there ought to be some outliers, one way or another! Particularly since both GFS  and ECM main charts each bring in a depression across the UK, ECM sooner and GFS later. I don't regard the outputs as predictable at the moment. 

Edited by user 21 July 2019 06:43:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Gusty

ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.

And those are raw values, so possibly a degree or two could go on top.

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Where is that link from Steve?

Originally Posted by: Gusty

ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.

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That has 35C a bit more mentioned this morning east London/Essex

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature/20190725-1500z.html