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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC) Posts: 10,083 Location: Brockley
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Bit of cloud seeding over the central Atlantic needed to dull down that pump low a bit. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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MWB with about 75% of members either as hot or hotter than the op - also maybe half with the heat backed a bit further west. Certainly 35C or slightly higher starting to look a good call for that day.
My assessment is that 38C, 39C or even 40C still cannot be ruled out, and now just at D4-D6.
Edited by user 20 July 2019 20:21:12(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Just 120 hours away 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 7,137   Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark. You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day. Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high 20s after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean. Edited by user 20 July 2019 20:49:53(UTC)
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Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Thanks your the first one since the days of YD Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman  Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark. You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day. Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/04/2012(UTC) Posts: 2,097  Location: WEST HANTS
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC) Posts: 10,083 Location: Brockley
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GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,748  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Originally Posted by: TimS  GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown. Supported by BBC WftWA now saying breakdown on Friday - and still hedging bets about -just possibly - a thundery low in Biscay as scenario 2 EDIT - added Sunday am - the above confirmed by ensembles, ECM and GFS charts this morning, though ECM keeps it pleasantly warm in the south. Mildly surprising that there's no indication of more than scattered storms associated with the breakdown. Further ahead, the agreement of the ensembles for the foreseeable for a spell of close-to-average temps and pptn looks too good to be true - there ought to be some outliers, one way or another! Particularly since both GFS and ECM main charts each bring in a depression across the UK, ECM sooner and GFS later. I don't regard the outputs as predictable at the moment. Edited by user 21 July 2019 06:43:08(UTC)
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It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 7,137   Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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ECM keeps the heat going to Friday this morning 29c forecast for Essex , it also has 36c on thursday so close to record territory. |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC) Posts: 10,083 Location: Brockley
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GEM has some interesting ensembles this morning. Rather different to the flat line and consensus implies by GEFS. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,744  Location: Folkestone
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ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/07/2018(UTC) Posts: 339  Location: Sible Hedingham (near Braintree), Essex
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.
And those are raw values, so possibly a degree or two could go on top. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Even when you look at ecm next Monday 29th you cant rule out another heat rush south having a fab summer imo
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman  ECM keeps the heat going to Friday this morning 29c forecast for Essex , it also has 36c on thursday so close to record territory. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Where is that link from Steve? Originally Posted by: Gusty  ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.
SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,744  Location: Folkestone
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Originally Posted by: Polar Low  Where is that link from Steve? Its from metdesk.com Tim.  Its a password protected site that I use for my role in winter maintenance. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Thanks Steve put me out of misery looked everywhere for it. Originally Posted by: Gusty  Its from metdesk.com Tim.  Its a password protected site that I use for my role in winter maintenance.
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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
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