Met Office Hadley     16.8c.       Anomaly      0.9c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                  16.70c      Anomaly      0.23c

Netweather               17.27c      Anomaly      0.78c

Mean of my 10 stations 17.65c  Difference    -0.4c.  

Model madness with next week... ECM 00z was good for a CET in the high 17s to low 18s by 26th, FV3 similar with a final CET in the mid to high 18s, but the ECM 12z much fresher after Tue with the CET struggling to keep itself in the 17s!

If we were making our CET estimations now, we'd still be prone to some major mistakes!

Of course this is all academic to me now; after June's terrible act (which I will never forgive), there's little joy left for me here beyond examining what extreme solutions might do to the CET out of pure, slightly deranged interest .

Model madness with next week... ECM 00z was good for a CET in the high 17s to low 18s by 26th, FV3 similar with a final CET in the mid to high 18s, but the ECM 12z much fresher after Tue with the CET struggling to keep itself in the 17s!

If we were making our CET estimations now, we'd still be prone to some major mistakes!

 

Of course this is all academic to me now; after June's terrible act (which I will never forgive), there's little joy left for me here beyond examining what extreme solutions might do to the CET out of pure, slightly deranged interest .

Well I've gone for 17.42C. And in the last couple of days with all this talk of heatwaves this is the first time this month that I've seriously thought I might be rather too low!

Well I've gone for 17.42C. And in the last couple of days with all this talk of heatwaves this is the first time this month that I've seriously thought I might be rather too low!

Met Office Hadley        16.9c        Anomaly       0.9c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                     16.78c      Anomaly       0.34c

Netweather                  17.36        Anomaly       0.87c

Mean of my 10 stations     17.75c    Difference    0.06c.

I've ballsed up badly this month having gone for 16.5C. loking more like 18.5C at this rate.

Met Office Hadley            16.9c.         Anomaly         1.0c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                         16.75c        Anomaly          0.29c

Netweather                      17.38c        Anomaly          0.88c.

Mean of my 10 stations     17.7c.        Anomaly          0.01c.

Some staggering model runs cropping up here and there.

The latest operational example being the FV3 06z. The hottest so far when excluding ensembles.

So JFF... my rough CET estimate rockets all the way into the high 18s as of 29th. For a month that's had so little notable heat prior to the final 10 days, that would be quite some feat.

00z from the same model kept the CET estimate over a degree lower. All we can do is shrug and wonder!

Guessing we'll cross the 17 threshold Sunday or Monday. Should step up a notch at a time for a few days thereafter.

Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. 

Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. 

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976.

Met Office Hadley            16.8c.        Anomaly      0.9c   Provisional to19th.

Metcheck                         16.75c        Anomaly     0.28c

Netweather                      17.32c        Anomaly     0.83c

Mean of my 10 stations 17.78c  Difference      0.89c.                   

Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. 

Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. 

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976.

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Thanks GW- some interesting days ahead.

Think the CET average for July is 16.0? Which would put your (very pleasing) estimate at +1.7 rather than +1.

 

Thanks GW- some interesting days ahead.

Think the CET average for July is 16.0? Which would put your (very pleasing) estimate at +1.7 rather than +1.

16.0C is the 1961-1990 average.

16.7C is the 1981-2010 average which is the figure I use.

 

16.0C is the 1961-1990 average.

16.7C is the 1981-2010 average which is the figure I use.

Thank you for clarifying that. 

I think I'll stick with the 61-90 for my own uses, as this is still quoted as the standard period of reference by the WMO. Those are also the averages listed on the Hadley dataset so I just find it easier to refer to.

In the meantime, if your estimate is good I might actually get close for once!

Hadley provisional CET is running slightly more than 0.5C above my estimate this month. So a very large downward adjustment is expected this month. 

Currently my CET estimate is 16.27C up to yesterday. Not expecting to break the 17C mark until Wednesday. 

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

Latest output suggests three CET date records this week are likely on Tuesday to Thursday. Highest figure of 24.3C on Wednesday. For comparison the highest CET mean ever recorded in July was 24.7C on 4 July 1976.

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Thanks GW! A 17C CET July is bang in line with the expectations from my Summer forecast (after a relatively cool and unsettled June)

Can we get August to 18C - That's the question on which my Summer forecast soars... Or sinks! 

Here are the date records from Tuesday of this week as we may have a chance of breaking some of these. Many of them were only set last year!

Link to full sized table

The 1900 records on the 24rd and 25th look especially vulnerable

Met Office Hadley            16.9c.    Anomaly    0.9c Provisional to   20th.

Metcheck                         16.76c   Anomaly    0.29c

Netweather                      17.36c   Anomaly    0.87c.

Mean of my 10 stations   17.7c  Difference   0.01c.         

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.70C which is exactly 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Could be higher depending on how long the heat sticks around at the end of next week.

I'd take that

Met Office Hadley         16.9c.        Anomaly      1.0c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      16.86c       Anomaly      0.39c

Netweather                   17.39c       Anomaly      0.39c.

Men of my 10 stations    17.75c  Difference    0.06c  Using a  6 - year average.