Gotta love the ECM keeps it hot in the SE out to day 10. Hopefully it's playing a blinder here as its different to most other output. 

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ECM keeps it potentially hot in the south east out to 240.

 

A stunning run. I don’t think it’ll work out quite like that though. More likely that the dome shunts east and the Azores high nudges in, which keeps it warm, but not hot, in the SE.

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ECM means would suggest many of the ensembles back a similar evolution to the op. Heat hangs on in the SE +15c 850s, until Friday.  then remains very warm in the south with high pressure building in.  Basically very good.

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ECM means would suggest many of the ensembles back a similar evolution to the op. Heat hangs on in the SE +15c 850s, until Friday.  then remains very warm in the south with high pressure building in.  Basically very good.

2m temperatures from the 0z ECM ENS for De Bilt

https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Still uncertainty for the end of next week. A cluster of runs going for cooler conditions from Friday. Control run very cool on Saturday but Op run stays very hot until Saturday.

Beyond that a general trend to cooler conditions (but probably still close to average) by the start of August.

Looking at UKMO the start of next week looks increasingly hot and dry away from west

By mid-week we start to see showers breaking out with the heat around these are likely to be torrential and thundery where they do develop

Towards the end of the week we continue to see some rain/showers but with fresher air from the west

Shame, I'd rather have seen a continuation of the pleasantly warm, dry conditions but it's not to be.

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Shame, I'd rather have seen a continuation of the pleasantly warm, dry conditions but it's not to be.

The night-time temps shown by the BBC for next week suggest to me that humidity will be quite high in many areas next week, until the fresher air moves in. I'd rather that it wasn't too humid as it is hellish for me trying to get to sleep at night.

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06z GFS evolves in a similar way to 00z next week. Thursday hot but cold front Thurs pm into Friday and fresh thereafter.

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Slight improvement in the GFS Ens: quick look at the 2m T postage stamps gives a mean on Wed a degree up on the earlier run. Thursday still best bet as the transition day. But that's 5 days away- could shift a day either way; the enhancing low that spoils the show hasn't formed yet, and might be more or less intense & extensive than modelled. 

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Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 

Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 

 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.

The discussion in here has been a lot better on the whole since the thread was closed in May. However in recent days I have noticed a few off topics posts creeping back in. If you have an issue with another member raise it with me or one of the mods rather than publicly here. 

If you haven't read the thread in the FA discussing the MO please take a look. It is us here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20046

 

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Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 

 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.

Knowing what the model output has often been like this summer, it probably will change again.

The theme of the output this summer generally so far is that anything for more than 5-6 days ahead has more often than not been subject to change. It is now looking more likely that the mini-heatwave will be pretty much over by Friday, but time will tell as to whether or not it will be the start of a prolonged cooler and more unsettled spell.

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GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.

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GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.

This has been the biggest barrier during this summer thus far to us getting a sustained settled spell, like we saw for much of the time during the first two-thirds of last summer. What I have noticed in the output quite regularly since late May/early June is that pressure over Greenland seems to have been fairly high for much of the time, and as a result the jet stream has not stayed to the north of the UK for long. Hopefully that will change as we go into August, but we shall see.

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I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.

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GFS Op has big NW-SE split in the rainfall totals over next 10 days.

NW Scotland washout

Sussex and Kent arid

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I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.

 

Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...

 

 

Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...

I think we will hit 35C. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion we’ll hit the July record as well

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No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.

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36C on the raw at 120 apparently can we add a couple on?

850,s at that time

Limited sea modification in that s/e corner at that time

 

No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.