Interesting GEFS. Still huge scatter from as early as next Wed. What's most remarkable is that the op doesn't seem to be the hottest member. It's well ahead of the mean but not a true outlier. For the true blast furnace look at P07. Essentially August 2003 in pattern and duration but a couple of degrees hotter.

LOL at this run.

This is proper last minute change stuff - we're talking major pattern changes from one run to the other as early as 96 hours.
I can only hazard a guess that the low pressure hit Ben Stokes's bat on the way to the UK and bounced away for 4 overthrows.

You mean six thanks to the incompetent Umpires

I hate the heat, so hope you will be disappointed

 

 

Sorry to go off topic, but what's the drive south from Caen like in France?

We're thinking of doing this next summer, staying somewhere west of Nantes

Once you get out of Caen (which isn’t too bad) the drive is usually great although I would expect it to be busy passing Rennes if you go that way. I have always found, cities excepted, driving in France is a pleasant experience. 

As for the model output, it looks like I’m swapping the DC heatwave (here currently) for a U.K. one on my return, for a while at least.

Crikey. Better support for some serious heat there.

I quite like this view on Meteociel for illustrating how the ensembles stack up. Not listed by run but in descending order of temperature for each day: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=2

For the Wednesday and Thursday there is near unanimous agreement for 30C+ temps in London. Even as late as next Friday half the runs go 30C+.

Thanks Tim & Doc 

Thought I'd pop across and take a look at ICON 06z. It only goes up to 120z but I'd say it's half way between the morning runs and this latest GFS at that stage.

ICON EU only goes to 120. It is the high res version available on TWO (and other sites):

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx

ICON GLOBAL is lower res but goes out to 180. I've not made available on TWO yet but you can find it elsewhere

IME ECM often churns out similar solutions to ICON.

I quite like this view on Meteociel for illustrating how the ensembles stack up. Not listed by run but in descending order of temperature for each day: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=2

 

For the Wednesday and Thursday there is near unanimous agreement for 30C+ temps in London. Even as late as next Friday half the runs go 30C+.

 

 

I'm stunned by the GFS ensembles. The remarkable thing is that this morning's run wasn't an extreme outlier. It does command support from the suite. 

Just catching up with the GFS 6z that's certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons . ECM mean is also solidly hot until 168h.  Hopefully some interesting 12s later.

 

 

Sorry to go off topic, but what's the drive south from Caen like in France?

We're thinking of doing this next summer, staying somewhere west of Nantes

just got back from a month inter railing around Europe and would thoroughly recommend Pornic...gorgeous town and coastal area...lots of beaches and creeks.... 

I'll lock this thread and start a new one at 15:02.