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Certainly a few real bazookas in the mix tonight but also a cluster which appears to bring cooler conditions back quite quickly.
That's a huge spread in the GEFS! A real variety of options on offer 'Bazookas' is a great word to describe some of those hot outliers
Automated output on my phone is suggesting a decent warm-up rather than a blink-and-you-miss-it blast, with 28 29 29 30 30 the temps from Mon to Fri next week in London.
Only in the SE can you call that run of high maxima a 'decent warm-up' Shropshire just as guilty with his 'warm' understatement!
I'#m sceptical, natually, of a 35C+ heatwave but several days of high twenties to low thirties nationwide would be very welcome Hope it doesn't usher away too soon!
Looks all a bit up in the air to me. Maybe hot most of next week , maybe just 1-2 days. Know better after Saturday.
Both GFS and GEM 12z ensembles shifted towards having the ridge further NE and allowing more troughing near the UK.
I expect a cooler EC 12z op run (still very warm), but still too early of course and the models could easily shift hotter again tomorrow.
Just as the GFS Op flips warm a significant cluster of the GEFS goes south.
0Z and 12Z ECM also chalk and cheese.
MO flip flopping as per usual when something interesting in the offing.
Both GFS and GEM 12z ensembles shifted towards having the ridge further NE and allowing more troughing near the UK.I expect a cooler EC 12z op run (still very warm), but still too early of course and the models could easily shift hotter again tomorrow.
The EC12 op did indeed switch towards that pattern and of course it'd be a perfectly reasonable outcome.
The uncertainty should be over before this weekend.
A bit early for that although the SE does look likely to be warm for a time, the GEM run looks most plausible from the 12zs so far.
As much as you hate to say it, looks warm for the foreseeable in the SE. That would be my reading.
Met office didn’t see any heat coming at all until today. They were set on a cyclonic and unsettled week next week for even the south at times.
No, they mention heat possible
From 13th July
It may tend to become generally drier and brighter, more especially in the south and southeast, with the more changeable conditions persisting across northwestern parts of the UK. Temperatures will generally be near normal, but warm at times, mainly in the south and east. Perhaps a very warm and humid interlude in the southeast.
Both GEM and GFS have have mid 30s possible for next Wednesday. Then thundery breakdown. Ukmo looks even hotter and more stable. July record up for grabs next week.
On the basis of this morning's charts I'd say hot, not just warm, in the SE; but not for the foreseeable. It's the traditional three fine days and a thunderstorm - continuing quite warm but nothing special thereafter as the jet stream pushes in from the west. Scotland doesn't really see much of the serious heat.
It’s been their outside chance all along even up til yesterday but looks like a certainly we’re in for the furnace next week.
Furnace / sauna. Very high dps mid-late next week as the breakdown moves in.
You are agreeing with me? Warm (hot, quite warm) for the foreseeable in the SE?
Just to keep us all on our toes the ECM 00z brings the traditional school holiday switch, just in time for break up day next week.
ECM FI is all over the place though and has been for a while now. This morning's evolution is pretty odd to say the least.
GEFS now has better agreement on a hot spell next week but also better agreement on a breakdown by next weekend, unfortunately. Still there could/should be some fireworks!
What do you think the implied temps are next weekend Friday 26th to Monday?