Up until now, this has been a very dry month here. That has been the case throughout much of the UK and one of the side-effects of this is that it has been very quiet on the convection front until now.

According to the Met Office though, that is now set to change as they have issued a thunderstorm warning for this area for Thursday between the hours of 12 noon and 9pm on that evening. This warning area covers most of Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England.

Because of that, I thought that it would be good idea to start this thread just as there hadn't yet been a convection thread for this month up until now, and because I believe that this thread is likely to become rather lively in the coming days.

 

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I've noticed that in addition to the thunderstorm warnings which I mentioned above, another yellow warning for thunderstorms has also been issued for the east of Scotland during tomorrow, for exactly the same time as the one for Thursday. Here in Edinburgh, we are just on the fringes of that, but other major Scottish cites such as Dundee and Aberdeen lie well within tomorrow's warning area.

This is therefore, something where I would the Doc to give some sort of input at some point in time since the latter of those two cities is his neck of the woods.

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Interesting to relate this thread into your comments on the contradiction between BBC v MetO views on tomorrow's convective potential John. BBC go for far N. of England only into Scotland, whereas the MetO have extended the warning area down into Lincs today.

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Interesting to relate this thread into your comments on the contradiction between BBC v MetO views on tomorrow's convective potential John. BBC go for far N. of England only into Scotland, whereas the MetO have extended the warning area down into Lincs today.

What's interesting as well, is that this morning's BBC Scotland video forecast only really had tomorrow's thunderstorms occurring in NE Scotland. Since that is only one small area within the Met Office's yellow warning area for tomorrow (which that forecast had superimposed onto the graphics for that), that in itself is also indicative of just what discrepancies have been like between the model output which is used by the Met Office for that, and which is used by the BBC/Meteogroup.

 

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What's interesting as well, is that this morning's BBC Scotland video forecast only really had tomorrow's thunderstorms occurring in NE Scotland. Since that is only one small area within the Met Office's yellow warning area for tomorrow (which that forecast had superimposed onto the graphics for that), that in itself is also indicative of just what discrepancies have been like between the model output which is used by the Met Office for that, and which is used by the BBC/Meteogroup.

 

I think it's fair to say they are likely to be isolated storms - the MetO matrix is right at the bottom of likely v impact. I suspect for my neck of the woods Friday is more interesting, as we have a good chance of a widespread convergence zone down the east of the Borders down into Yorkshire.

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Convection - and then some - in Greece. 6 killed in this storm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48945821

 

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Convection - and then some - in Greece. 6 killed in this storm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48945821

 

Yes, looked like a nasty storm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njis3zmHf0k

Some reporting talking of tornadoes, but difficult to say at this point. May just as well have been straight line winds from an intense gust front or downburst.

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I'm starting to wonder whether or not today's forecast thunderstorms are actually going to end up happening here and whilst I haven't come on here to say that they actually won't happen or even that I don't think that they will happen, I am having my doubts about that (after all, "interesting" weather in this part of the world is usually always too much to ask for during the vast majority of the time).

Here in Edinburgh, we are still firmly within the yellow warning area for that, which is still valid for those original times of between 12 noon and 9pm this evening. However, this warning area has shrunk slightly so that the west of Scotland along with Northern Ireland and NW England no longer lie within this warning area (in a way, that is a real pity as this means that we will now be less likely to get any thunderstorm time lapse videos from either Bolty or Kev Brads on their YouTube channels as a result, although this might result in that old "Lack of Thunderstorms in the Manchester Area" thread from some time ago, becoming more active once again as in addition to the summer moaning thread which might get more posts from people in that area as a result).

According to the Warning Impact Matrix which is associated with today's yellow warning, the levels of impact are expected to be high if these thunderstorms do occur later. However, this same matrix is now also showing that these thunderstorms are actually unlikely to happen (a yellow warning after all, is just a warning for us to be aware that such an event could happen, and should not therefore be taken as an indication that the event in question actually will probably end up happening).

For that reason, I have my doubts about these thunderstorms actually happening later on although it will be nice to see the thunder and lightning (preferably without any flash flooding this time) if this event does end up happening here.

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Additional TSTM warning now for Mids/E. Mids - impacts here not expected to be as much as further north.

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Additional TSTM warning now for Mids/E. Mids - impacts here not expected to be as much as further north.

That warning starts an hour later than the one for here. The matrix which goes with that shows that these storms are likely to be more impactful, but more likely to actually happen than the ones up here.

Having said that though, some intense echoes are already starting to show up just to the west of Edinburgh on the latest radar maps which appear to be heading in this direction, although there are no actual lightning strokes showing up just yet.

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A bit of a disappointment with that last lot of bright echoes which I mentioned. They did end up passing right over here but because they are very much broken with each part of that being very small, we ended with only the briefest of heavy bursts of rain which in the end, has produced very little in the way of actual recorded rainfall here as a result of that being so brief.

The radar maps continue to show more of these developing to my west but at the moment, I'm still not very hopeful about anything significant happening from that here.

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A bit of a disappointment with that last lot of bright echoes which I mentioned. They did end up passing right over here but because they are very much broken with each part of that being very small, we ended with only the briefest of heavy bursts of rain which in the end, has produced very little in the way of actual recorded rainfall here as a result of that being so brief.

The radar maps continue to show more of these developing to my west but at the moment, I'm still not very hopeful about anything significant happening from that here.

Now, it has become virtually completely sunny here with nothing else showing up on the radar maps which could head in this direction, thus making it even more doubtful that anything will actually end up happening here during this afternoon in terms of thunderstorm activity (for that to happen, I would need to at least be seeing plenty of big towering cumulus clouds around which could then develop into thunderstorms, but I'm not even seeing that just now).

 

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Just saw a double funnel cloud!

Just driven to work in one heck of a downpour. Not heard any thunder though.

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Quite a decent storm passing through. About time too! Rain was properly torrential at its peak.

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I can hear thunder booming in the distance!  

Met office got it about right for the East Midlands, the yellow warning was from midday to 21:00 hrs!  Derbyshire’s had some and so has Lincolnshire. 

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Just saw a double funnel cloud!

I have seen some good footage.

You can thank me as such things tend to only happen when I am out of the country.

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Just driven to work in one heck of a downpour. Not heard any thunder though.

Yes, I've just seen Kev Brad's latest video of that downpour in his part of your city of Manchester.

I'm guessing that this might well have been partly in response to what I posted earlier on about what might happen as a result of the earlier yellow warning being removed from NW England in terms of either you or Kev being able to produce any videos of such an event as a result.

 

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Just came up to Edinburgh on the train from Leeds with lots of English tourists dressed for English summer weather. Beautiful weather for the journey until we got east of Edinburgh and it went dark in a heavy downpour. Another heavy shower coming over the Forth now....welcome to Edinburgh 😲

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Just came up to Edinburgh on the train from Leeds with lots of English tourists dressed for English summer weather. Beautiful weather for the journey until we got east of Edinburgh and it went dark in a heavy downpour. Another heavy shower coming over the Forth now....welcome to Edinburgh 😲

The funny thing here is that I had just written quite a lengthy post on another thread about the fact that we have generally never been getting any showery weather which had been forecast for here, and how this has meant that this month overall in terms of being a summer month hasn't actually been as bad overall, as what some people might make out.

However, I can sense that the weather Gods probably knew that you were coming and therefore as a result, decided to change its course with that one as far as today is concerned.

 

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